Texas Rangers Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Texas Rangers top prospect list, updated with new international prospects. Who is thriving and moving up boards? Which prospect has gotten the most buzz this spring? Check out over 10k words on the Texas Rangers Top Prospects!

Texas Rangers Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Cody Bradford, LHP, 27, 6’4”/197

Bradford put together a quiet, but strong season in 2024, despite it being just 76.1 innings. After his first three starts saw him allow just three total earned runs in 19.1 innings, he unfortunately was out until the end of July. Despite having two blow-up starts on the ledger, Bradford finished with a 3.54 ERA across his 76 innings with 70 strikeouts and just 13 walks.

While Bradford is not flashy, he has a solid four-pitch mix. Despite the fastball sitting south of 90 mph, it works thanks to over seven feet of extension and plus ride from a 6’3” release height.

The changeup is a solid offering to pair with a two-plane curveball and a shorter gyro slider. The arsenal is deep enough with good command that Bradford can make it work. He will cost you nothing and could be a solid starter long term.

While it was not a lot, Bradford is averaging 91 mph on his fastball, up from 89.8 mph last season. While Bradford won’t overpower anyone, his fastball does have strong traits and deception which allow it to play well.

The curveball shape for Bradford is slightly different this year, albeit a small sample. It is less depth but more sweep, which coincides with his uptick in velocity. Do the gains hold in longer outings? It is still to be determined, but Bradford is a solid depth arm late in drafts.

MLB Breakout: Josh Jung, 3B, 27, 6’2”/214

Is Jung just injury prone at this point? In April of 2023 Jung had a left hand injury and then later that season he missed over a month due to a fractured left thumb. After hitting two home runs in four games to start the 2024 season, Jung was hit on the wrist by a pitch, requiring surgery that caused him to miss four months. The injuries seem a bit fluky at this point, but it is weird that he has had major issues with both hands/wrists at this point.

Jung’s return to action to end 2024 was fine, but not great. He has just five home runs in 169 plate appearances after returning at the end of July and paired them with a slash of .248/.278/.366. Timing is always an issue after a long layoff, and that seems to be evident with the 71 percent contact rate and 33 percent chase.

The good news is that those numbers moved in the right direction. In September, Jung had a 90 percent in-zone contact rate and a .286/.355/.464 with three home runs in 15 games.

The cost of Jung might not have dipped much, but it is worth inquiring and seeing if you can buy for even 90 cents on the dollar. Things have looked solid this spring for Jung. Can he finally put together a complete season in 2025 and become a high-end third baseman?

MLB Bust: Evan Carter, OF, 22, 6’2”/190

I would be lying to you if I sat here and told you I was not concerned by Carter’s back injury. The 20-year-old at the time burst onto the scene to end the 2023 season and made an epic playoff run as the Rangers went on to win the World Series. Unfortunately, Carter’s 2024 season ended in May due to a back injury that had lingered throughout the year.

Carter turned 22 at the end of August and still has a bright future. The young outfielder has consistent 20 HR/20 SB upside and, with his strong plate skills, should post high OBPs. In a points league, Carter could be gold.

Back injuries are no joke. We have seen them derail plenty of players’ careers. We hope that is not the case with Carter. When you read comments such as “we know what the issue is” and that Carter “believes” the issue is fixed, it leaves a little bit of pause. Carter was also quoted saying the back issue is just “part of me now.”

There is no denying the talent that Carter can bring the table. I am just highly concerned the back issue is not going away and could be an issue for his entire career.

Texas Rangers Prospect Sleeper: Kohl Drake, LHP, 24, 6’5”/220, AA

Drake is one of the more underrated pitching prospects in baseball. A 2022 11th-round pick, Drake pitched very little in 2023 but took a big jump forward in 2024, moving three levels and finishing the year dominating Double-A hitters. He finished the year with a 2.29 ERA across 106 innings with 148 strikeouts to just 31 walks.

Age is probably a factor going against Drake’s stock not climbing higher, but I believe that with pitchers, stuff and command are evident, and you can see it playing no matter the competition. Drake is one of those arms.

Drake sits in the 93-95 mph range with his fastball, registering between 15 and 18 inches of IVB with a nice horizontal run. Drake’s curve is his second most used offering, sitting in the low-80s with -15 inches of IVB and sweeping action as well.

He mixes an 82 mph changeup that plays well off his fastball and a slider in the 85-87 mph range.

The former 11th-rounder in 2022 should fully be on radars at this point. As the season went on, Drake has continually improved. He finished the season with nearly a 17 percent swinging strike rate while throwing strikes at a 65 percent clip.

Internally, the Rangers are quite high on Drake. The hype still hasn’t built, but Drake is an arm that everyone needs to know. This is a solid, high-floor pitcher.

Texas Rangers Prospect Breakout: Pablo Guerrero, 1B, 18, 6’2”/200, A

Guerrero took a substantial leap forward in 2024 after signing with the Rangers org in January 2023. The son of Vladimir Guerrero Sr. and the brother of Vlad Jr., Guerrero did not get much hype on the international market, signing for just $97k. After some struggles in the DSL, Guerrero came stateside and put together an impressive 2024 between the complex and Single-A.

Having a relatively strong and filled-out frame for someone who just turned 18, Guerrero posted a 90th-percentile exit velocity of 106 mph, which is near the top of all players who were 17 years old last season. Hitting the ball at ideal angles, Guerrero had an air percentage north of 60 percent, and he pulled the ball 50 percent of the time. The barrel rate was quite strong due to the combo of power and launch angles.

While the overall contact rate was just 67 percent on the season, he saw improvement as he moved to Single-A, where he put up a 71 percent contact rate over 94 trips to the plate. The in-zone contact was also north of 80 percent, which is a solid number for someone his age.

There is some aggression in the swing, and Guerrero becomes prone to chase out of the zone at times, having a chase rate of around 30 percent. Still, the profile is very intriguing from a power perspective. As a first base-only profile, Guerrero will need to hit and hit for power. The good news is that his profile and future projections look like that of a power hitter. How much contact will he make? That will determine his long-term outlook.