Tampa Bay Rays Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Tampa Bay Rays top prospect list, updated with new international prospects. This list is as deep as they come and they added even more talent on the international side! Check it out!

Tampa Bay Rays Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Jonathan Aranda, 1B, 26, 6’0”/210

Aranda is a sneaky breakout target for 2025, given the opportunity for at-bats as well as Tampa Bay playing their home games at Steinbrenner, a park that plays quite well for left-handed hitters. Aranda ended the 2024 season strong by mashing five home runs in his final 62 plate appearances and having a slash of .273/.339/.582.

While he missed time in 2024 due to a broken ring finger and an oblique strain, Aranda still managed 287 plate appearances between Triple-A and the Majors. He hit 13 home runs across both stops with a .792 OPS in Triple-A and .737 in the Majors.

Aranda hits the quite hard, having a 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 45 percent hard-hit rate between both levels last season. On pulled fly balls, Aranda averaged 99 mph which should bode well for the short porch at Steinbrenner Field.

The contact skills have also progressed. Aranda posted an 84 percent in-zone contact rate last season with an overall mark of 78 percent against MLB pitching. The approach is good and Aranda hits mistake pitches well.

While Aranda is likely to platoon, it will be strong-side. Getting 450 at-bats could legitimately lead to 20 home runs with a solid OBP. I am buying in where I can.

MLB Breakout: Ryan Pepiot, RHP, 27, 6’3”/215

Pepiot has all the traits you wanna see from a potential breakout arm. Putting together a strong 2024 season, Pepiot threw 130 innings with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while striking out 26 percent of batters. There is more in the tank, though for him to take a leap.

From a Stuff+ perspective, according to Eno Sarris’ model, Pepiot graded out with a 107 Stuff+ and 108 Pitching+. For pitchers with 130 innings, those marks ranked 13th and 19th, respectively.

The arsenal is strong, starting with his 95 mph four-seam fastball, which gets 19-20 inches of IVB regularly from a five-foot-nine-inch release height. Pepiot creates 6’9” of extension and creates a pretty flat VAA at -4.5. The four-seam boasted an impressive 32 percent whiff rate in 2024, which was the highest mark among starting pitchers.

Pepiot uses an 86 mph changeup the most of any secondary pitch, having heavy fade and late sink. The changeup generated a ton of whiffs out of the zone, having a 36 percent chase rate and a 29 percent whiff rate.

The slider has carry to it and sits 89-90 mph. It misses a ton of bats and also gets swings out of the zone like the changeup. Something interesting to watch will be Pepiot’s cutter usage, which took a jump in August and September last season and led to good results.

One negative for Pepiot is that he will be pitching his home games in Steinbrenner, rather than Tropicana. Home runs have bitten him at times, and Pepiot does allow a good many fly balls. If he can harness those, the chance for a breakout is real.

MLB Bust: José Caballero, INF, 26, 5’9”/185

Caballero is coming off a solid season that saw him get 483 plate appearances in his first season with the Rays where he put up nine home runs and 44 stolen bases. The stolen bases alone are pretty valuable and lead Caballero to having a fairly high ADP of 310 on NFBC.

The problem here is playing time. Splitting time across the infield in 2024, having 20 starts at second base, 20 at third base, and 83 at shortstop. Taylor Walls seems locked in the shortstop role for the Rays. Junior Caminero and Brandon Lowe have third and second base locked down.

From my chair, it is hard to see Caballero getting more than 300 plate appearances. So while he would still be likely to get stolen bases, the chances of you starting him in a weekly lineup league are slim if the Rays are healthy. Therefore, you probably miss the games where he could get a steal or two. In a daily lineup league, Caballero is probably more valuable.

Tampa Bay Rays Prospect Sleeper: Ty Johnson, RHP, 23, 6’6”/205, A+

Johnson was traded to Tampa as part of the Isaac Paredes deal. The 2023 15th-round pick out of Ball State blossomed throughout the year and was even better after being traded to Tampa. I saw him pitch with Myrtle Beach in the second week of the season, and honestly, it was not good. I deleted the film I had of him and went on.

But as Johnson began to dominate, it was evident I had just seen a bad start. I watched him pitch again in early August with Bowling Green, and it was impressive. In 84 innings, Johnson posted a 2.79 ERA with 120 strikeouts and 26 walks. After being traded to the Rays org, Johnson posted a 0.78 ERA with a 46 percent strikeout rate in 23 innings.

The Rays lowered Johnson’s release height on his entire arsenal. The fastball sits 95-97 with the fastball, which is up from what it has averaged early in the year. The former 15th-rounder out of Ball State has a pretty low release height, considering his 6’6” frame. The amount of ride he creates on the fastball is average in a general sense at 15.5 inches, but considering release height, it is above average. The pitch consistently gets over ten inches of arm-side run, and he lands it in the zone quite often. The more impressive thing is the amount of in-zone whiff the fastball generates. He also began to throw a two-seamer much more often with the Rays.

The slider was his most used secondary, sitting in the 84-87 mph range with a nice two-plane break. He mixes in an 83 mph changeup but does not throw it often. Johnson’s long-term development as a starter probably hinges on the ability to continue to develop that changeup.

Johnson has a strong arm and a lot of bat-missing ability. His strike-throwing has been better than expected from a 6’6” frame with a funk release. Finishing the season with a 65.5 percent strike rate and a 19.2 percent swinging strike rate are highly impressive numbers. If Johnson can work deeper into starts more consistently in 2025, his stock will soar

Tampa Bay Rays Prospect Breakout: Jose Urbina, RHP, 19, 6’3”/180, A

Signing with the Rays in 2023 from Venezuela, Urbina Looked respectable at the complex, considering he was still 17 years old in 2023. Urbina returned to the complex in 2024, where he pitched 48 innings before heading off to Single-A Charleston, where he was one of the younger players in the Carolinas League.

The velocity has fluctuated throughout his young career, but Urbina has shown flashes where he will sit 94-96 and top out at 98 mph. With a tall projectable frame, Urbina still has plenty of room to fill out and consistently sit in the mid-90s.

Urbina spins his slider well, sitting in the mid-80s, and it shows flashes of being a plus pitch. The curveball sits in the upper-70s with good depth and sweep and sometimes blends into the slider. Urbina’s changeup is presently below average, but a developing pitch, sitting in the upper-80s.

Throwing strikes at a respectable rate for his age, Urbina walked just six percent of batters once he moved to Single-A Charleston. The upside is here for Urbina to take a big step forward in 2025. He likely starts the year in Charleston and spends most, if not all, of the upcoming season there.