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Starting Pitcher Streamers 6/10-6/16
Michael Simione breaks down all the pitching streamers that you need to know for this weeks slate of games.
While Ryan Pepiot hasn’t provided a lot of support on the surface (3.96 ERA) he should see better days ahead. He is actually a very solid buy-low candidate if someone is selling.
For the season his 3.96 ERA comes with a 3.66 xFIP which shows good things are coming. But what I really want to point out are his last two starts. In his last two starts, he has a 3.86 ERA, again not great. The crazy thing is that ERA comes with a 1.94 FIP and 2.63 xFIP. What is most notable though is his 33.3% strikeout rate. The Rays are a very smart team, we know this, and suddenly Pepiot is starting to lean on his changeup. This is a change I very much welcome because it not only causes him to throw his fastball less but it was also by far his best pitch last season.
If you roster Peipiot, hold confidently. If you are looking for a decent buy low I would be reaching out to see if the person who rosters him just sees a mediocre ERA.
Results from last week:
6/3: Matt Waldron at LAA - 6.1 IP - 2 H - 1 ER - 0 BB - 4 K
6/4: Joey Estes vs SEA - 6.1 IP - 1 H - 0 ER - 0 BB - 5 K
6/5: Spencer Schwellenbach at BOS - 4.2 IP - 7 H - 6 ER - 2 BB - 4 K
6/6: JP Sears vs SEA - 6.0 IP - 3 H - 2 ER - 2 BB - 8 K
6/7: Cooper Criswell at CHW - 4.1 IP - 5 H - 3 ER - 1 BB - 2 K
6/8: Matt Waldron vs ARI - 6.0 IP - 3 H - 1 ER - 2 BB - 4 K
6/9: Bryse Wilson at DET - TBD
Season Total: 380.0 IP - 322 H - 113 ER - 103 BB - 353 K - 2.68 ERA - 1.18 WHIP - 8.36 K/9
The Chart
A quick update. It seems no one pays attention to ESPN leagues or most of them are very small leagues. My picks will now only be under 30% rostered in Yahoo!
Picks For The Week In One Spot
6/10: Chris Paddack vs COL
6/11: Randy Vasquez vs OAK
6/12: Slade Cecconi vs LAA
6/13: Simeon Woods Richardson vs OAK
6/14: Andrew Heaney at SEA
6/15: Chris Paddack vs OAK
6/16: JP Sears at MIN
Analysis and Backup Options
Monday 6/10
Streamer of the Day
Look I know Chris Paddack just got lit up but the big thing was that his fastball velocity was back to his season average. As a result, it lead to a lot of strikeouts… and earned runs. But to see the dip in velocity come to a halt is a big thing. He takes on the Rockies at home so this is a go for me.
Strikeout Upside
Chris Paddack
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Chris Paddack and Joey Estes.
Win/QS Potential
Chris Paddack and Spencer Arrighetti
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Chris Paddack vs COL
Spencer Arrighetti at SFG
Joey Estes at SDP
Dakota Hudson at MIN
Colin Rea vs TOR
Tuesday 6/11
Streamer of the Day
I almost went with Tylor Megill here but Oakland has been just beyond bad so I am going to roll with Randy Vasquez. The Athletics have a putrid 37 wRC+ and 13.0 SwStr% in the last seven days. If Randy can’t have a good start against them he probably doesn’t belong in the MLB.
Strikeout Upside
Tylor Megill, JP Sears, and Randy Vasquez.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Tylor Megill, Miles Mikolas and Randy Vasquez.
Win/QS Potential
Tylor Megill and Randy Vasquez.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Randy Vasquez vs OAK
Tylor Megill vs MIA
Miles Mikolas vs PIT
Jameson Taillon at TBR
JP Sears at SDP
Wednesday 6/12
Streamer of the Day
I am once again rolling with a pitcher who has a juicy matchup. Slade Cecconi takes on the Angels who have a 50 wRC+ and 83.4 Z-Contact% in the last seven days. This is a bit risky as Cecconi is a bit of a wild card but I am willing to take this shot.
Strikeout Upside
Slade Cecconi.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Slade Cecconi, David Peterson, and Mitchell Parker.
Win/QS Potential
Slade Cecconi and David Peterson.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Slade Cecconi vs LAA
Mitchell Parker at DET
Bailey Falter at STL
David Peterson vs MIA
Griffin Canning at ARI
Thursday 6/13
Streamer of the Day
This is a no-brainer for me as Simeon Woods Richardson takes on Oakland. Not only is he taking on a terrible offense but SWR is on quite the run. On the season he has now pitched 50.2 innings with a 2.84 ERA. His underlying metrics call for regression mainly due to his super high LOB% but he should be okay here.
Strikeout Upside
Simeon Woods Richardson and Lance Lynn.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Simeon Woods Richardson and Alec Marsh.
Win/QS Potential
Simeon Woods Richardson.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Simeon Woods Richardson vs OAK
Lance Lynne vs PIT
Alec Marsh vs NYY
Michael Lorenzen at LAD
Nick Nastrini at SEA
Friday 6/14
Streamer of the Day
Andrew Heaney isn’t what he once was but he still flashes a ton of whiff potential and his 14.2 SwStr% in the last two weeks proves that. The Mariners have one of the higher strikeout rates as a team on the season so even if ratios don’t pan out you will definitely be getting strikeouts.
Strikeout Upside
Andrew Heaney and Patrick Sandoval.
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Andrew Heaney.
Win/QS Potential
Andrew Heaney.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Andrew Heaney at SEA
Patrick Sandoval at SFG
Sean Manaea vs SDP
Mitch Spence at MIN
Chris Flexen at ARI
Saturday 6/15
Streamer of the Day
Our pick is Chris Paddack once again as he faces the horrific Athletics offense. See Monday!
Strikeout Upside
Chris Paddack, Frankie Montas, and Joey Estes
Ratio Play (High Floor)
Chris Paddack and Frankie Montas.
Win/QS Potential
Chris Paddack.
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
Chris Paddack vs OAK
Joey Estes at MIN
Frankie Montas at MIL
Bowden Francis vs CLE
Keaton Winn vs LAA
Sunday 6/16
Streamer of the Day
Surprisingly Sunday is a tough one. I am not in love with any of these options so I am going to go with the hot hand in JP Sears. Sears has really come along after his tough starts and in the last two weeks, he has an impressive 13.6 SwStr%. He also has a 101 Stuff+ and 100 Command+ on the season.
Strikeout Upside
JP Sears, Tylor Megill, and Spencer Arrighetti
Ratio Play (High Floor)
JP Sears and Spencer Arrighetti
Win/QS Potential
JP Sears and Spencer Arrighetti
If I Had to Rank The Top Five
JP Sears at MIN
Spencer Arrighetti vs DET
Carlos Carrasco at TOR
Jameson Taillon vs STL
Tylor Megill vs SDP
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