St. Louis Cardinals Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated St. Louis Cardinals top prospect list, updated with new international prospects. Pedro Strop’s son is now in the Cardinals org, plus 2024 signee Yairo Padilla is soaring. Find out more!

St. Louis Cardinals Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Willson Contreras, C/1B, 32, 6’1”/240

Contreras is moving to first base in 2025, where his bat should play up. There are some similarities to the move Salvador Perez made which enabled him to prolong his high-level performance. While Contreras had a down year by his standards in 2024, it was largely due to getting just 358 plate appearances.

He still managed to hit 15 home runs and was pacing for his fourth straight 20 home run season, if not for injury. The 2024 season also saw Contreras post a career best .380 OBP. The power metrics are still quite good as Contrears boated a near 92 mph average exit velocity and an 11.2 percent barrel rate.

The approach and contact skills are a bit of a question as Contreras whiffed on 35 percent of swings, but he made up for it with a 78 percent in-zone contact rate. While still below average and even having a 30 percent chase rate, Contreras picks his spots and can do damage or take a walk.

With the move to first base, I would bet on over 500 plate appearances for the first time since 2018. If he does, 25 home runs could be in order with a solid OBP. Don’t let the age keep you away from a good hitter like this who you can use at catcher.

MLB Breakout: Lars Nootbaar, OF, 27, 6’3”/205

This feels like an every-year pick at this point, and one year, the breakout is going to happen. The underlying metrics are just too good. Nootbaar missed time in 2024 and had five IL stints between 2023 and 2024, which included thumb, back, groin, rib, and oblique injuries.

In his 405 plate appearances in the Majors in 2024, Nootbaar hit 12 home runs and stole seven bases. The slash line of .244/.342/.417 leaves a bit to be desired, but it is also important to remember that Nootbaar dealt with injuries.

The approach and contact skills remained strong as Nootbaar ran a zone-contact rate north of 86 percent for the second straight season. The overall contact of 81 percent was 82nd percentile among hitters, and Nootbaar’s 16.9 percent chase rate was the lowest mark in baseball among hitters with 400 plate appearances.

The issue is that Nootbaar’s zone-swing rate was 11 percentage points below the league average, and the heart-swing rate was 10 percent below the league average. Simply put, Nootbaar needs to be more aggressive.

The quality of contact is good despite having a 50 percent ground ball rate for the last two seasons. Nootbaar’s hard-hit rate of 50 percent and his barrel rate of ten percent are both strong marks.

If Nootbaar can put more balls in the air and get them to the pull-side more often, there could be a 20-25 home run season in the tank. Health will also need to be on his side, as he has missed significant time in the last two seasons. If it all comes together, Nootbaar could find himself with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases at peak.

MLB Bust: Nolan Gorman, 2B, 24, 6’1”/225

Is it weird that Gorman, a 24-year-old, feels like he could be in a make or break year? The Cardinals plan to give Gorman 550-to-600 plate appearances this year between second base and designated hitter. It seems crazy, but it could be a make or break year.

Gorman knows how to barrel up a baseball. Despite having just an 88.5 mph average exit velocity which ranked 38th percentile, Gorman posted a 16.7 percent barrel rate, 98th percentile. His 105.6 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was solid, but his sweet-spot rate of 40 percent leads to elite barrel rates.

The odd thing is Gorman struggles to square up pitches. The whiff rates are bottom of the barrel as Gorman made contact on just 61 percent of swings overall and 71 percent of in-zone swings. The approach is below average as well as Gorman chases at a 30 percent clip with below average zone and heart-swing rate.

Sure, Gorman can mash home runs, he hit 27 in 2023 across 464 plate appearances. But the problem is the low floor due to contact skills.

St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Sleeper: Jimmy Crooks, C, 23, 6’0”/230, AAA

Crooks spent his entire 2024 season in Double-A Springfield, where he posted a strong .321/.410/.498 slash line with 11 home runs. Crooks missed a chunk of time at both the beginning and end of the 2024 season, but when he was on the field, he was highly productive. This followed a strong 2023 regular season and Arizona Fall League.

The underlying data backs it up as well. Crooks makes contact at a solid 73 percent clip, but the in-zone number was north of 81 percent. He rarely expands the zone, as shown by his 11.6 percent walk rate and chase rate of around 25 percent.

The power numbers are strong, and the quality of contact is near that of the elite. Honestly, some underlying numbers are not all that different from Dalton Rushing from a contact quality standpoint. A 90th percentile exit velocity near 107 mph stands out in a big way.

When Crooks connects, he hits the ball in the air often and has a solid all-fields approach. That is not to say he cannot get to the pull-side, though, as he hit some big-time home runs to right field as a left-handed hitter.

The Cardinals have a lot of catching talent in their system, but Crooks might be the best of the group. He is a skilled bat who threw out 33 percent of attempted base stealers.

St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Breakout: Chen-Wei Lin, RHP, 23, 6’7”/188, A

Lin signed with the Cardinals in July of 2023 for $500k, becoming the first Taipei player to sign with the organization. A tall and lanky righty, Lin pitched minimally in 2023 but tossed 116 innings in 2024, during which he posted a 2.79 ERA with 123 strikeouts.

Having a deep arsenal of pitches, Lin’s four-seam is his most used offering, at a rate north of 50 percent. The pitch sits 96-97 mph from a relatively low release height, given his frame, just shy of six feet. He spins the pitch well, and it has an interesting shape. It has below-average IVB for the release height at 14 inches but gets 16-17 inches of arm-side movement.

Lin’s changeup follows a similar movement profile with a heavy run and late fading action, sitting in the upper-80s. It generated a whiff rate north of 50 percent in 2024. The slider had more of a traditional shape, sitting in the mid-80s.

Lin throws strikes at an above-average clip and posted a 14 percent swinging strike rate. Being a bit older for Single-A, we want to see how Lin fares as he faces better competition. Given his arsenal and strike-throwing ability from his tall frame, it is easy to see a potential starting pitcher here.