With dynasty season ramping up, it is time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find our rankings and reports to see how we at the Dynasty Dugout value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where we call our shots on players, I think, require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

St. Louis Cardinals Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Brendan Donovan, 2B/OF

Donovan looked poised to take off after a strong Spring Training in 2023 as he saw increased exit velocities and power to add to his strong plate discipline skills. That is exactly what happened in the regular season, as Donovan mashed 11 home runs in his first 95 games before going down with an elbow strain.

The plate discipline skills have always been one of Donovan’s biggest strengths as he posted a .365 OBP, which followed up a .394 mark he posted in 2022. The contact rates are rather impressive, as well, as he made contact on over 94 percent of pitches in the zone and 87.5 percent overall.

Geoff Pontes at Baseball America reported Donovan has made further changes to his swing to get more power. It will be interesting to see what Donovan looks like in Spring Training this year, but if he adds even more power and keeps the contact and plate discipline skills, he becomes an incredible value for fantasy.

MLB Breakout: Ivan Herrera, C

Prospect fatigue may have hit Herrera harder than any player in baseball. You may have even forgotten that Herrera existed up until this offseason. After signing in 2016 and later being named the heir-apparent to Yadier Molina, Herrera never really took off and has now spent six seasons in the Minors and has just 24 MLB games under his belt.

While Herrera hit just ten home runs in Triple-A last year, he slashed .297/.451/.500 in 83 games. The underlying data looked really strong as he posted a 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and chased less than 20 percent of pitches out of the zone.

Herrera is scorching hot in the Caribbean Series and now has two home runs and a .438/.609/.875 slash in five games. If he can find plate appearances this year in St. Louis, he might just fully break out.

MLB Bust: Lance Lynn, RHP

If there is one thing Lynn can do, it is throw innings, and while those innings have been quality for much of his career, 2023 was a different story. He did manage to throw 183.2 innings as a 36-year-old, but it came with a 5.73 ERA.

It was not as if he just had a bad stretch; the entire season was consistently not great, as he posted an ERA north of six in four separate months last year. The fastball velocity has trended in the wrong direction over the last several years.

Lynn has been an interesting deeper league target, but at this point, I am not sure I want the headache.

Prospect Sleeper: Victor Scott, OF

Scott may not be a sleeper anymore, but I still think he is being undervalued for who he is. Between 155 games last year in the Minors and the Arizona Fall League, Scott stole 112 bases while hitting 12 home runs.

Being more of a do-it-all type, Scott plays a strong center field, has 80-grade speed, and is not a zero in the power department. Scott is fairly aggressive, swinging at over 51 percent of pitches last year while making contact 79 percent of the time.

I have continually said it, but I truly believe Scott is the better version of Esteury Ruiz, having similar speed, more power, and better contact skills.

Prospect Breakout: Chase Davis, OF

Davis broke out in a major way at Arizona in 2023 by cutting his chase rate significantly and making contact on pitches in the zone nearly 88 percent of the time. His collegiate average exit velocity was better than Wyatt Langford, and Davis’ 90th percentile exit velocity was very similar to Langford and Crews.

The improvements were evident as Davis posted a .362/.489/.742 slash line with just 40 strikeouts in 278 plate appearances this season. That 14.3 percent strikeout rate was lower than Crews and Langford, while he walked 15.5 percent of the time.

My friend Geoff Pontes pointed out that Chase Davis has been one of three college hitters since 2018 with a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 108 mph and a strikeout-to-walk rate below one.

https://twitter.com/GeoffPontesBA/status/1675535952515563521?s=20

While his pro debut was a bit underwhelming compared to his college performance, Davis still has plenty to like in the profile, and 2024 could be a big year for him.