San Diego Padres Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated San Diego Padres top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

San Diego Padres Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Tirso Ornelas, OF, 25, 6’3”/200, AAA

Ornelas reached Triple-A in 2022 after signing with the Padres back in 2017. It has been quite a journey, but Ornelas seemed to finally take a major step forward in 2024. Playing 128 games in Triple-A, Ornelas hit 23 home runs and added 49 extra-base hits while posting a slash of .297/.367/.497.

We want to take PCL numbers with a grain of salt, but Ornelas put up an above-average 104.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and topped out at 114 mph. The new max exit velocity was extremely impressive.

What might be even more impressive was Ornelas’s improved contact skills. Putting up an overall contact rate of 79 percent and 88 percent in-zone stands out. The question is, will the skills translate to the majors?

Despite the signings of Connor Joe and Jason Heyward, it still seems like a possibility that Ornelas could find himself on the strong side of a platoon. There could be plenty of reps and opportunities in 2025.

MLB Breakout: Nick Pivetta, RHP, 32, 6’5”/210

Did Nick Pivetta land in the perfect spot in San Diego? Honestly, I am a bit worried about the contract situation and if there was an underlying injury going on. The good news is that Pivetta threw live BP today as you are reading this.

Despite not having a single season with an ERA below 4, Pivetta has come close in the last two seasons. In 145.2 innings in 2024, Pivetta posted a 4.14 ERA, but it came with a 3.50 xFIP. He also has a 30 percent strikeout rate in the last two seasons combined.

The stuff has steadily improved, and based on Eno Sarris’ model, 2024 was his best season yet, as he posted a 105 Stuff+ and a 109 Pitching+. Of pitchers who threw at least 140 innings, Pivetta ranked 12th in Pitching+ and 13th in Stuff+.

He now gets to pitch his home games in Petco Park, which ranked 28th in overall park factors the last three years, according to Baseball Savant. For reference, Boston ranked second.

Home runs have been the biggest downfall for Pivetta, as he allowed 28 last season. The home runs per nine innings was the worst mark in baseball for starting pitchers. Unfortunately, Petco has been pretty home-run-friendly, which could hurt him.

Still, Pivetta could be in for a career-best season in 2025 despite being 32 years old.

MLB Bust: Yu Darvish, RHP, 38, 6’5”/220

It is hard not to like Yu Darvish, and I am not even sure I would call him a bust. There was just not other clear pick here. At this point in his career, I am not sure how much is left in the tank for Darvish, who has put together a fantastic career.

When on the mound last year, the results were good as he posted a 3.31 ERA across 81.2 innings, but the FIP was 4.08, and Darvish struck out just 23.6 percent of batters. There has been a five-year decline in the strikeout rate and also a three-year increase in home runs.

Darvish is still building up and is set to appear in Spring Training action in early March. I am just not sure what to expect from Darvish as far as performance and innings this year, which makes him the choice here on a really good team.

San Diego Padres Prospect Sleeper: Humberto Cruz, RHP, 18, 6’1”/170, ACL

Rarely do we put much stock into the performance of a 17 year-old arm who has only thrown two professional innings in his career, but Cruz brings a lot of talent to the table. Signing for $750k in the 2024 international class, the Padres liked what they saw from Cruz in the U18 World Cup with Team Mexico when he was just 16.

Cruz will still be 17 years old until December but is already sitting in the low-to-mid 90s and has reportedly been up to 97. The pitch plays as a sinker with heavy arm-side movement.

The changeup pairs well with the sinker, sitting in the low-80s with plus fading action. It could be a useful weapon as a platoon-nuetralizer against left-handed hitters.

Cruz’s gyro slider has late-breaking action with a high spin. It misses bats at a high clip and looks like it could be a plus offering.

There is plenty of projection on Cruz’s frame, and the fact he has already added velocity is quite telling. If he adds good weight and does not lose his current athleticism, there is a massive amount of potential. Cruz’s mechanics are pretty smooth, and he repeats them well. Cruz's potential as a successful starter is as good as any other his age.

San Diego Padres Prospect Breakout: Cobb Hightower, SS, 20, 6’0”/180, HS

Hightower landed with the Padres in the third round of the 2024 MLB Draft, signing him away from his commitment to UNC. He was somewhat of a late riser in the draft cycle, but now he looks like a player more teams might regret not getting in on early.

The bat speed stands out when you watch Hightower, and he does a great job finding the barrel. Having a good weight distribution in his setup, he utilized a big leg kick for his 6’0” frame and created a wide stride. The point of contact is strong and out in front of the plate, and Hightower keeps the bat's barrel in the zone for a long time.

He posted strong run times, having a 60-yard dash as fast at 6.6 seconds. The athleticism is there, and Hightower could have quite a well-rounded skillset. The knocks on his age should probably be ignored, given his skill set.