It could be an interesting season for San Diego in 2024 as they traded away Juan Soto and have some holes in the lineup while also question marks in the rotation. They have some prospects on the way, but who might contribute? Who could break out, and who should you sell in dynasty?

Let’s get to our breakdown of the Padres dynasty sleepers, breakouts, and busts.

San Diego Padres Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Luis Campusano, C

Campusano enjoyed a bit of a breakout in 2023, slashing .319/.356/.491 with seven home runs in 174 Major League plate appearances. Being rushed to the Majors in 2020 as a 21-year-old, it felt like Campusano's development was a bit stunted. But after strong Triple-A seasons in 2021 and 2022, Campusano had a strong showing in San Diego.

While the numbers in the small 2023 sample don’t look sustainable, Campusano hit the ball hard and at ideal launch angles. His sweet spot percentage of 38.5 percent was one of the better rates among all hitters, meaning Campusano hits it at ideal angles often.

While he did not walk at a high clip, Campusano put the ball in play a ton and rarely whiffs. There is a good feel to hit with solid game power, making him a great dynasty investment.

MLB Breakout: Drew Thorpe, RHP

Thorpe was selected in the second round of the 2022 draft out of Cal Poly and proceeded to post the best numbers of any pitcher in the Minor Leagues in 2023, splitting time between High-A and Double-A. Posting a 2.52 ERA across both levels, Thorpe was better in Double-A, having a 1.48 ERA across the five starts and 30 innings he pitched. 

Despite only 30 innings in Double-A, the Padres targeted Thorpe in the Juan Soto deal and the current projected Padres rotation gets pretty dicey the further you move down. Thorpe’s high floor could enable him to make 15-20 starts in the Majors this season.

Showing the ability to pitch deep into games consistently, Thorpe tossed 139.1 innings across 23 starts, averaging over six innings per start. He showed plenty of swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 182 batters. Throwing strikes at a 65 percent rate, which is better than average, Thorpe shows a good feel for all his pitches.

While throwing four pitches regularly, Thorpe throws his changeup most often, a truly devastating pitch for hitters. It is his best offering, sitting between 82-85 mph with nasty fade and depth. It might be a 70-grade pitch and one of the better changeups in the minors.

The fastball sits in the 91-93 range, which is a few mph higher than he was in 2022 in college. Despite the lower velocity, it plays up due to the ride that it gets with exceptional command.

Thorpe mixes his slider well, sitting in the mid-80s and generating plenty of whiffs. He will mix a cutter and a curveball on occasion but truly focuses on the fastball, changeup, and slider.

With plus command and control, Thorpe is efficient and can pitch deep into games. If the fastball ticks up another mph or two, Thorpe could see his future outlook jump from a SP4 caliber arm, up to a mid-rotation starter.

MLB Bust: Ha-Seong Kim, 2B

I don't necessarily see Kim as a bust per se. I do think he provides value, but I see him as a good dynasty sell right now. The positional flexibility is a nice selling point and the fact that Kim is coming off a career season will be hard to repeat.

In 2023, Kim hit a career-best 17 home runs and stole 38 bases, which more than tripled his total of 12 from 2022. While he finished 66th on the Razzball Player Rater, 65 percent of his accrued value was tied up in his stolen bases. It feels like there is no guarantee that Kim will break 25 again in 2024, as he has really not been a stolen base asset for several years prior to 2023.

Kim makes good contact, but the quality of contact is a bit concerning as Kim’s 26.7 percent hard-hit rate ranked in the third percentile for all hitters, and his 4.2 percent barrel rate was in the 11th percentile.

Kim won’t be a bust, as he does have a high floor to hit, but this is likely prime time to sell him in dynasty.

Prospect Sleeper: Adam Mazur, RHP

Command specialist and strike thrower are just two terms that adequately describe Adam Mazur, a former second-round pick in the 2022 draft.

Mazur’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, reaching 98 with room to fill out his frame still and add strength. The movement profile is interesting, as it is often quite inconsistent, but vertically averaging nearly 15 inches of IVB. Mazur fills the zone with it, but needs to find consistency for the fastball to truly play like a plus pitch.

The slider is devastating to hitters, sitting near 90 mph with late-breaking action that keeps hitters on their toes. It is Mazur’s highest whiff rate pitch, but he also lands it for strikes quite often. 

The curveball is a decent third pitch, sitting in the mid-80s with 12-6 shape, while he will throw a changeup in the same velocity band as well. 

Mazur fills the strike zone, gets plenty of whiffs, and has a starter’s arsenal and frame. It is everything you want to dream on with a high-floor pitcher like this. He may fit the mold of a high-floor SP4, but there is more development to be had with Mazur.

No one really talks about Mazur as a legit pitching prospect, but he is exactly that. If you are looking for a cheap option for a pitching prospect that could move up rankings, Mazur is a great arm to invest in.

Prospect Breakout: Samuel Zavala, OF

Tools for days is what you like to dream of when it comes to an athletic outfielder like Samuel Zavala, who signed with the Padres back in 2021 for $1.2 million. Spending most of his season in Single-A Lake Elsinore, Zavala spent the final two weeks of 2023 with High-A Fort Wayne. Across 515 plate appearances, Zavala slashed .243/.391/.406 with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases. He walked over 18 percent of the time while striking out in 27 percent of plate appearances.

The frame gives hope that Zavala could fill out and add to exit velocities that are presently average, especially considering his swing that generates natural loft. You almost wish he could level the batted balls out a bit, as he posted a 47 percent fly ball rate and a sub-15 percent line drive rate. The lack of line drives is going to induce a lower BABIP, therefore low batting averages. 

Contact has been the biggest struggle with Zavala throughout his career, and 2023 was no exception. He finished the season with a 70 percent zone-contact rate and just a 67 percent overall clip The good news is that Zavala does not chase out of the zone often, posting one of the lowest chase rates in all of the Minors at 14 percent. 

Zavala does show above-average speed and good instincts on the base paths, stealing 21 bases last season and being caught just seven times. If the contact improves, there is a 20 home run/20 stolen base upside.

Videos have surfaced this offseason of Zavala and he has been putting in work in the cage and in the weight room, leaving a chance that a breakout could happen in 2024. His rankings are all over the place, so it is possible to get him in dynasty at a reasonable cost.