Revisiting 2024 Prospect Breakout Picks: AL East

From a statistical standpoint, Tavera has not jumped off the page in either his Dominican Summer League or Complex League performance. In 2023 as an 18 year old, he hit four home runs and stole 12 bases at the complex while slashing .262/.391/.421 in 35 games. Signing for $1.7 million in 2022, Tavera has shown a strong feel for the strike zone and has a very patient approach.

Tavera has made good contact to this point, but it has not fully translated into good-looking batting averages, which is okay and why we do not put a lot of stock in a Minor Leaguer’s batting average.

Having a highly projectable frame, Tavera should continue to grow into more power as he does have a swing that could tap into more juice. There is potential above-average power and speed with a plus feel for the strike zone, making him a very interesting play, especially in OBP leagues.

If you look at the surface numbers from Baumeister, you might come away unimpressed, but the stuff is much better than a 5.09 ERA suggests. He was solid on the Cape last summer and showed improved command into the 2023 season posting his lowest walk rate of his career.

It’s a big fastball that sits 93-94 mph with high induced vertical break and even some solid horizontal movement. None of the secondaries pop off as plus pitches, but he did introduce a new slider this year, so its development should be fun to watch. The changeup has strong traits when he throws it, sitting 86 mph with a lot of ride and nearly 16 inches of fade on average.

Cespedes was the big name signing for the Red Sox in the 2023 international signing period, landing a $1.4 million bonus. Despite having a smaller frame, Cespedes hits the ball hard and generates easy power, collecting six home runs and 25 extra-base hits in 26 Dominican Summer League games.

The power comes naturally as Cespedes posted a 101 mph 90th percentile in 2023, which is quite an impressive mark for a 17-year-old who also saw a max of 107 mph. It showed in person as well as he hit some majestic home runs, which is impressive considering he did not turn 18 until September. He is already filled out, but it would not be uncommon to see him grow an inch or two, given his age. Obviously batting practice in a cage does not show us a ton, but the good news is we got more.

In live batting practice, Cespedes took five at-bats against Richard Fitts in which he made hard contact four of the times. There were a couple of whiffs, but every at-bat ended with the ball in play. In Cespedes’ first at-bat, he smoked one to the centerfield wall. Two other batted balls ended up in the outfield grass as well.

It was a highly impressive showing for an 18-year-old bat who has only played in the Dominican Summer League. To me, he already looks like a top-100 prospect, given what I saw and his Dominican Summer League performance.

An aggressive hitter, Cespedes jumps on pitches early in counts and shows strong pitch recognition. The contact will be the question mark as well as his future defensive home, but I am incredibly excited about what Cespedes might do in 2024.

A tall and lean arm who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2021 draft, Rodriguez-Cruz is a strong athlete with room to fill out his frame on the mound. Rodriguez-Cruz made 14 starts in Salem this season, pitching 55 innings while missing nearly two months of the season. Prior to the injury, he had built up to 5 and 6 innings consistently, which was a positive step forward.

Armed with a fastball that sat 91-93 mph in 2023, but was up to 93-96 mph in a minor league spring training outing last week, which is highly encouraging. He still has plenty of projection on his frame, so it is not surprising to see the velocity tick up. The command is inconsistent on it, and he has not missed a ton of bats with it at the present. Rodriguez-Cruz drops in a long-breaking curveball that sits in the upper 70s with a good feel for spin and depth. It is his best pitch, very similar to Monegro.

The upper 80s changeup shows a late drop, but he often telegraphs it with slower arm action. Rodriguez-Cruz rounds his arsenal with a mid-80s slider still in the early development stages, but appeared to have taken a step forward this spring.

There is an upside with Rodriguez-Cruz, and he has the potential to make a big leap in 2024, especially considering the velocity gains.

Vilorio was one of the late bloomers in the 2024 international class, but one the Yankees might have gotten a great value on. Signing for $1.7 million in January of 2024, Vilorio stands at 6’3”/175 and has put on a ton of good weight over the last year.

The power profile looks to be more advanced than most thought at the time, but there are questions surrounding the hit tool, mostly due to lack of in-game looks, but the reports on his body are impressive.

While Vilorio has shown plus run times in the past, it is highly possible those times tick down as he has added muscle, but there is a chance we are looking at a strong power/speed threat. A big Dominican Summer League will see Vilorio’s stock soar this summer.

Carr has a short track record, but when on the mound, he showed enough for the Yankees to like him as a third-round pick in 2023. Needing Tommy John Surgery in his senior year in high school and missing most of his first two years of college, Carr moved to Palomar Junior College, where he posted a 2.31 ERA and 111 strikeouts across 78 innings.

Carr’s fastball works in the 92-95 mph range with nice riding action up in the zone and even some cut. His frame suggests there is more room to fill out and add velocity, so it’s possible the fastball could go from topping at 97 to reaching that number more consistently. 

The slider has flashes of being a solid offering, sitting in the low-80s with sweeping action. It tunnels well off the fastball with higher IVB before diving off with a lot of sweep. The changeup may be a big development point for Carr this year, which could give him a serviceable third offering.

Guerrero signed the fifth-highest bonus of any international player in 2023, landing $3.7 million from the Rays as a 16-year-old. Already standing at 6’2” and well filled out for a 16-year-old, Guerrero has high-end bat speed and massive raw power to all fields. 

The lefty posted exit velocities as high as 111 mph, which is quite crazy for his age. It was hard to get a great look at Guerrero this year, as he played just seven games in the DSL. The upside of a big power-hitting corner outfielder still remains as Guerrero will look to be healthy and play a full season in 2024.

Still 17 years old at the time of the draft, Harrison was snagged in the fifth round by the Rays, having an impressive frame with projection and an already advanced feel for his arsenal. 

The fastball ranges from 93-95 with high spin rates and IVB up in the zone. He mixes in a changeup in the low 80s and a downer curveball in the mid-70s. 

Harrison did not attend a lot of big showcase events, which might be a reason he flew under the radar, but the stuff plus the frame make him an intriguing arm to keep an eye on as he begins his professional career. We should see him start at the complex but likely finish out the year in Single-A with the potential to really move up boards.

Bonilla received one of the largest bonuses in the 2023 international class, signing with the Blue Jays for $4 million. Despite striking out more than once per game, Bonilla still managed to post a .307/.407/.429 slash with 14 extra-base hits in 50 games in the DSL.

There were some strikeout issues, but Bonilla still showed big power in his swing in his pro debut. There is still plenty of boom or bust potential in this profile, but if all clicks, there is a chance that Bonilla could tap into plus power pretty easily, but the questions remain on what kind of hit tool he can develop. When we see him in action stateside in 2024, we will have a better idea of the long term potential. But the reports and video this spring suggest there is plenty of upside!

A lean, right-handed pitcher with room to add to his frame, Perez was one of the better pitchers in the Florida Complex League, posting a 2.72 ERA across 49.2 innings with 57 strikeouts and 12 walks. 

The fastball sits in the low 90s but can touch 95 on occasion with decent ride and run. This spring, he has been sitting 93 mph consistently which is a step forward. If he can add weight to his frame and see the pitch consistently sit near 95, he becomes even more intriguing. 

Perez’s curveball has nice downward movement, sitting in the upper 70s, and his changeup shows a decent fade when it is at its best. Perez also has thrown a low-80s slider and even added a mid-to-upper 80s cutter.

The jury is still out on Perez, but the arsenal plus strike-throwing ability gives some intrigue and leaves Perez as a pitcher to watch as he moves up into full-season ball.