Revisiting 2024 Prospect Breakout Picks: NL East

Drake’s debut was sub-par, but the tools and athleticism show the makings of an extremely fun fantasy asset. During the Braves' intrasquad games between the regular season and postseason, Drake looked pretty impressive against Major League pitching. He was a younger player in the draft class, just turning 18 around draft day, but Drake has already shown some impressive skills.

He has been clocked as an 80-grade runner, while also flashing some pretty strong power. The lefty needs to make consistent contact and lift the ball more, but Drake is a fun player if all clicks right. The improvements he made in the offseason were promising and Drake looked like a guy who just might put it all together in 2024 and be a very solid prospect.

Lara might be the biggest pop-up in the Braves system, and his stock skyrocketed, at least in my book. Over Lara’s final ten starts of the season between Single-A and High-A, he posted a 3.02 ERA over 47.2 innings with an insane 71 strikeouts.

Armed with an athletic 6’3” frame and fast arm speed, Lara pumps his fastball up in the zone, consistently sitting 95-98 mph with nice carry. His slider sits in the upper-80s but can get up to 91 mph with a ton of sweeping action. The changeup gets nice fading action and late bite, sitting 88-90. The command and control seemingly improved throughout the year, and his walk rate trended in the right direction.

Lara has sorta already broken out, but I think he goes full mainstream and could be a top 100 prospect by the end of 2024. He is likely to start next year in High-A, but the move to Double-A Mississippi will be telling about his future outlook.

Valor is the type of player who has the look of a ballplayer you want to bet on when he gets off the bus. Standing at 6’3”/180 as a 17-year-old, Valor is oozing with projection and a body that could remain highly athletic, even adding 20 or more pounds.

Despite the longer frame, his swing is far from it. Valor has a simple swing by driving the barrel straight to the ball. The results showed that he hit five home runs and stole 21 bases while slashing .294/.360/.466. Despite striking out 24 percent of the time, the swing should play as he moves up levels. Valor also was named the MVP of his DSL team.

While we await where Valor will be assigned, it seems likely he will be at the complex before getting some time in Jupiter to end the season. Don’t be shocked when Valor soars up boards.

The second time was the charm for the Mets and Brandon Sproat, as they drafted him in 2022 as well, and he did not sign. Sproat has underrated stuff, starting with a fastball that sits 96 mph with an average of 15 inches of run in his college days at Florida. His slider sits in the upper 80s, averaging 88 mph at Florida, with more of a traditional shape. The curveball is distinct, sitting around 80 mph with nice vertical and horizontal movement. Sproat rounds out his arsenal with a change that sits 88 mph and gets up 27 inches of separation from the slider as the changeup averaged 17 or more inches of fade.

Sproat has a true four-pitch mix and even though he did not pitch in pro ball, he fired 106.1 innings last season at Florida, in which the 4.66 ERA did not represent how well he actually pitched.

Coming into the spring, Sproat looked even better with increased fastball velocity and the ability to miss bats at a high clip with all pitches. This seems like a call that might be a little too easy to make, but Sproat is likely in for a big season.

Rodriguez initially signed with the Diamondbacks in January 2023 for $1.2 million and began the DSL season as a 16-year-old before being traded for Tommy Pham and swapping his jersey for a Mets uniform. Rodriguez was solid before the trade, but really took off upon the trade and ended the season with a .293/.411/.467 slash with three home runs, five triples, and ten doubles. 

Rodriguez is a strong athlete, showing the propensity to steal bases at a high clip, swiping 19 in 51 games this season. You want to take DSL stolen base numbers with a grain of salt, but Rodriguez is the player who can continue to steal bases. The left-handed swing is smooth and simple and he displays good plate discipline. If Rodriguez turns some doubles into home runs as he continues to develop and fill out his frame, his stock will soar.

Rincon honestly flew completely under my radar until my offseason evaluations. The 19-year-old was a 14th-rounder in the 2022 draft and proceeded to slash .234/.368/.361 with eight home runs across 99 games in 2023. The numbers were not flashy, but Rincon stole 27 bases.

The good news is the underlying data looks much better than the performance. A selective switch-hitter swung at just 38 percent of pitches last season but made contact 81 percent of the time while having a zone-contact rate north of 87 percent. He chased less than 19 percent of the time, which shows rather impressive plate discipline skills.

The power is still firmly below average, but Rincon did make decent strides and saw his max exit velocity jump to 108 mph and his hard-hit rate jump to 26 percent.

Rincon is a high-floor hitter thanks to his plate discipline. If the power takes another step forward in 2024, watch out, he could be a massive breakout.

Yes, I am cheating here with two bats, but honestly I don’t love any of the arms in the Phillies system enough to call for a breakout.

Walton is an athlete with a great frame at 6’3”/220 and has tools across the board. The outfielder shows good speed and impressive power. If his contact skills develop, this ranking might look very silly for Walton. As a prep, Walton posted exit velocities as high as 105 mph as a sophomore with some elite bat speed numbers. From a speed standpoint, he clocked a 60 time of 6.7 seconds, which is a plus for an athlete his size with the impressive upper half that he has. He looks like a big-time wide receiver in the NFL and has the athletic ability to do so. I usually like to bet on athletes and like what Walton brings to the table.

Pinckney was the National’s fourth-round pick in 2023 out of the University of Alabama. Throughout most of his career, Pinckney appeared to be a hit-over power profile but saw a massive power breakout in 2023 as he mashed 18 home runs and had 33 extra bases in 64 games. The profile seemingly shifted as Pinckney posted a 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and just a 69 percent contact rate.

The good news is that Pinckney made contact on pitches in the zone at an 83 percent clip and chased just 24 percent of pitches out of the zone. The 2023 breakout continued post-draft, as Pinckney slashed .321/.415/.457 across four levels of the Minors, which saw him reach Double-A as he hit four home runs and stole 11 bases in 41 games.

If Pinckney continues the 2023 success moving forward, he is going to soar up this board, but considering the body, athleticism, and performance, Pinckney is a sneaky FYPD pick up.

Many thought Sykora might be selected on day one of the MLB Draft, but the Nationals were able to snag him in an over-slot, third-round deal. Sykora already has an advanced body and arsenal despite being only 19 years old, standing at 6’6”/230 with great stuff.

His fastball already sits in the upper 90s and has touched 101 mph. His split-change flashes are a plus pitch and sit in the same velocity band as his slider, which could improve shape.

From a pure stuff standpoint and future body projection, Sykora looks like a starter, but he will need to prove he can consistently throw strikes and command his pitches well, which will be telling as we see him debut in 2024.