Revisiting 2024 Prospect Breakout Picks: AL Central

I debated pretty heavily between Nunez and Javier Mogollon for this spot, but landed on Nunez for several reasons. Nunez is an athletic outfielder with an impressive frame for his age. He just turned 18 years old in February and is someone who has already shown an advanced feel for the strike zone and has good bat speed.

Nunez debuted in the Dominican Summer League last season, posting a slash of .299/.427/.442 with three home runs and 13 extra-base hits across 44 games. He also stole 12 bases and walked 18.5 percent of the time while striking out just 12 percent.

Currently, Nunez is an average runner who can handle center field, but if he continues to fill out his frame and add strength, he might wind up in a corner spot, which would be fine.

Coming from MLB bloodlines, with a father who played several season in the Majors, Nunez has the skills and talent to make a big splash this season.

Despite not pitching in 2023 due to Tommy John, the White Sox liked Taylor enough to take him in the second round out of LSU. After a strong stint in the Cape Cod League in 2022, Taylor had an elbow issue that required Tommy John and kept him out in 2023.

Taylor has a mid-90s fastball with nice tail, reaching 99 with late ride at the top of the zone. The velocity played up more out of the bullpen, but in the summer on the Cape, Taylor showed the ability to hold velocity in starts and showed improved command of the pitch.

Taylor added a cutter in the low-90s with a short, hard break that gives him another serviceable pitch in the arsenal. The curveball shows a ton of vertical drop sitting in the upper 70s, generating some ugly swings. The slider and changeup both flash average at times, but the arsenal is strong.

Taylor is healthy this spring and is slated to start the year in extended spring training before heading off to an affiliate.

Big shoutout to Matty Backpack in the Discord and on X for turning me on to Merejo. After being somewhat on my radar I decided to dig in a little more once Matt asked me a question about him and I really like what I have seen.

Last year in the Dominican Summer League, Merejo hit four home runs across 40 games with a .321/.441/.485 slash with a 12 percent walk rate to a 15 percent strikeout rate. Merejo was actually born in Florida before moving to the Dominican Republic as a 14 year old, making him eligible to sign as an international free agent.

There is a very intriguing profile with Merejo, who is a strong athlete and has a solid frame at 6’2”/185. Given that he is 17 years old, I would expect him to continue to grow and add to that frame and what was already good power. Last season, he posted a 102.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which ranked fourth among hitters his age. The average 90th percentile for 17-year-olds was 96.5 mph.

The plate approach is very good, and Merejo showed that through solid contact and swing rates. Probably a bit overshadowed by the fact the Guardians had a loaded DSL team, Merejo has the chance to shine in 2024.

Cleveland felt like they got a steal on Clemmey with the 58th pick in the 2023 draft, handing him a bonus well above slot at $2.3 million. 

Clemmey has a massive frame at 6’6”/205 lb and was still 17 years old at draft time. There is plenty of projection in his frame, but he does not necessarily need to add any velocity as his fastball sits in the mid-90s and is up to 98, with a ton of ride at the top of the zone. You could label the pitch a 70, and I wouldn't argue. 

His curveball is a plus pitch as well as it sits near 80 mph with a ton of bat-missing ability. It features both sweeping action and downward action, making it a go-to pitch with two strikes. He still needs to work on his changeup and command in order to be a starter, but you have to love this landing spot in Cleveland, which has a great track record of success with pitchers.

The upside might be SP2-level production if all clicks right, but there is still plenty of development to be had for the tall lefty.

Briceno had a strong 2023 season, spending time at the Complex and Single-A, posting a .319/.402/.529 slash with seven home runs and 28 extra-base hits in 55 games. Signed as one of the top players in the 2022 international class, Briceno has displayed solid power and a decent feel for contact to his point. 

While it has only been a small sample, the results have been solid for the big-bodied slugger. Briceno will likely start 2024 back in Single-A and spend the entire season as a 19-year-old. If the success continues next season, Briceno is sure to vault up boards.

In spring breakout, Briceno had just one hit, but it was notable because it left the bat with an exit velocity of 111.7 mph that ended in a double. Briceno had an additional batted ball that also left the bat at 97 mph. This is obviously notable because Briceno is just 19 years old.

Melton was an unheralded prospect out of San Diego State who landed in the fourth round of the 2022 draft. Pitching just five innings last season after the draft, Melton came into 2023 without much hype, but that began to change as he pitched at a high level in Single-A before improving even more in High-A. For the season, Melton pitched 92 innings, posting a 2.74 ERA with 94 strikeouts. 

The fastball sits in the mid-90s, touching 97 with 16+ inches of IVB and seven inches of horizontal movement. Melton locates it well up in the zone and throws it for strikes at a high rate. He also mixes in a two-seamer that sits in the low 90s and a cutter in the upper 80s.

Melton’s slider sits in the low-80s with nearly 12 inches of sweeping action. The curveball generates more sweeping action than the sweeper, sitting in the upper-70s with nice depth. Melton’s changeup shows nice fading action with low spin, diving off late and generating whiffs.

A heavy strike thrower, Melton pounds the zone with each of his pitches, which led to a 67 percent strike rate, showing plus control. It showed in the walk rate as he walked just six percent of hitters he faced. Ten of his starts came without a walk allowed, and Melton walked one or less in 17 of 23 starts.

Werner is a strong athlete for his size, who moves well and generates easy power in his 6’3” frame. Werner surprised me when I first saw him in Columbia, as I did not have high expectations for the seventh-rounder from the 2023 draft.

With thick legs and a strong upper half, Werner’s swing is low effort, but he hits the ball with authority. After hitting 14 home runs during his senior year at Texas A&M with a .252/.349/.514 slash, he burst onto the scene in pro ball.

The college contact rate was just 71 percent, with a zone contact of 82 percent, but in a small sample of pro ball, Werner posted a 79 percent contact rate. The power translated well to pro ball as Werner posted a 91 mph average exit velocity and 107 mph 90th percentile at A&M and, as a pro, saw it increase to 108 mph. Posting solid launch angles, Werner turned his hard-hit balls into barrels often.

I mentioned being a solid athlete for his size, and it showed on the base paths, as Werner stole ten bases in 14 attempts in 35 pro games after swiping 12 on 15 attempts in 57 games at A&M this year.

The power gives Werner an easy 20-25 home run upside with the potential to provide in stolen bases. If the improved contact rates stick, Werner has a chance to be a legitimate corner infield prospect for the Royals.

Wolters is the upside arm Kansas City desperately needs to hit on and develop. With a strong build at 6’4”/210 lb, Wolters worked to get stronger and add velocity which paid its dividends. Wolters went from sitting in the low 90s on the showcase circuit to averaging near 95 mph and touching 98. There are reports of him sitting 95-97 in the first inning of starts, but settling in 93-96 long term, but given his age(18 years old his senior year), that is to be expected. The fastball gets big carry up in the zone with 18 inches of IVB on average and topping out at 20 inches in PBR’s Super 60 with 11 inches of running action. The fastball is firmly plus and has been up to triple digits this spring. I cannot wait to see him live in Columbia.

His slider is sharp and high spinning, sitting in the low-80s. His spin rates averaged near 2,500 RPM with ten inches of sweeping action and nice depth as well. Coming from a 4’9” release height, the pitch is incredibly hard for hitters to pick up on and could end up being a plus pitch.  

Wolters has a strong feel for his changeup as well, creating low spin(1,700 RPM) and late movement. He didn't need the pitch often in high school, but the development of that pitch as a pro will be huge for his long-term outlook. It has good traits and could be an average offering.

Winokur is a physically gifted 6’5”/210 athlete and has very loud tools. He hits the ball hard but also posts high-end run times for his size. He seemed not to get as much draft love as he should have, which is surprising considering his performance at showcase events and tournaments was solid. Winokur posted exit velocities and 60-yard dash numbers that were both 98th percentile for his class.

Winokur slashed .288/.338/.546 with four home runs and five doubles in 17 games. He consistently posted high exit velocities with impressive bat speed. The strikeouts are an issue, as Winokur showed an aggressive nature at the complex and struck out 23 times in 71 plate appearances. 

Winokur looked good when I saw him live last week, playing shortstop in both games. I have seen him, but he likely outgrows the position if he does add weight onto his frame. He controls the barrel extremely well and keeps his weight back on breaking balls. The contact skills have been good and he has also hit plenty of balls hard.

Last Tuesday, Winokur opened the game up with a hit off of MLB veteran reliever Chris Martin and has several other solid batted balls. He collected another hit on Wednesday and hit several balls hard. He could be a big riser up rankings this year.

Bowen is one of the more underrated arms in all of baseball, much less the Mariners farm system. The 22 year-old was drafted in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of UNC Pembroke, a D2 school that also produced River Ryan.

Pitching 55.2 innings in Single-A Modesto this year, Bowen posted a 3.88 ERA with 59 strikeouts. Tossing strikes at a league-average rate, Bowen did post a walk rate north of 10 percent, which has been a range he has been in for most of his career.

Bowen’s fastball sits in the mid-90s, with a very low VAA, averaging over 18 inches of IVB while having 12+ inches of run consistently. It comes from a highly athletic delivery, and Bowen works rather quickly. The fastball has outlier traits, which allows it to play up significantly.

He gets ugly swings and misses from a slider that has a ton of sweeping action, sitting in the low-to-mid 80s. The curveball plays off of it well, sitting near 80 mph with a two-plane break and a ton of sweep.

Bowen does throw a changeup on occasion that has about 7 mph of separation from the fastball with 17 inches of fade regularly. While the command still has questions, Bowen’s arsenal is extremely solid, making him worth keeping an eye on. If the command ticks up a notch, we could be talking about him among top 100 prospects.