Prospects to Target in Redraft (NFBC Draft & Holds): Starting Pitcher

This week, I will be breaking down prospects that you should be targeting in NFBC Draft and Hold formats. These articles will be evergreen all offseason and applicable to NFBC formats and all redrafts. This article will go extremely deep, given the nature of the 50-round draft and hold format that NFBC hosts.

All ADPs referenced will be from NFBC Draft Champions, and I will give thoughts on their potential value in relation to that ADP.

Starting Pitching Prospects to Target in Redraft

Jackson Jobe, RHP, 22, Detroit Tigers, 6’2”/190, MLB (ADP: 250)

Jobe has evolved impressively as a pitcher since being drafted third in 2021. A converted infielder with a big arm, Jobe showed a high-spinning slider and plenty of heat on his fastball. The refinement over the last three seasons has led Jobe to be one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.

Injuries limited Jobe to 91.2 innings in 2024, but that was a career-best mark. He posted a 2.36 ERA with 96 strikeouts and 45 walks, earning his MLB promotion at season's end. With the Tigers, Jobe tossed four relief innings without allowing a run.

The fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s with plenty of carry-up in the zone, averaging over 17 inches of IVB from a 6’0” release height. It touches triple-digits and shows impressive traits, making it a plus offering.

Jobe’s slider is his best pitch, sitting around 82 mph with a ton of sweeping action with spin rates up to 3,200 RPM. The pitch gets anywhere from 12-17 inches of horizontal movement and misses bats at a high clip. Jobe added a cutter to bridge the velocity gap between the fastball and slider, sitting around 90 mph with good carry and five inches of horizontal movement.

One of Jobe's biggest progressions in the last two seasons was the development of his changeup. The pitch sits 84-85 mph with nice depth and consistently 15 inches of fade. It was his best swing-and-miss pitch in 2024.

Jobe has three pitches that grade out as plus, and you could argue that the cutter is also pretty close to a plus offering. After walking just six of the 258 batters he faced in 2023, the walk rate spiked in 2024. Jumping from a 2.3% walk rate to a 12 percent mark in 2024 is notable. The interesting thing is that Jobe’s 65.5 percent strike rate is well above the MiLB average of 62 percent.

Working the corners well and not giving hitters a pitch to hit in counts when he is behind could explain the higher walk rate, but it is still quite unexplainable why it was as high as it was. Natural regression seems likely, and Jobe will likely run a walk rate in the six-to-seven percent range in 2025, when he will be in the Tigers rotation.

Verdict: Jobe made his MLB debut at the end of the season and pitched in the playoffs for the Tigers. He has a rotation spot out of camp as long as things go well in Spring Training. Even if he spends a month in Triple-A, 120-140 MLB innings could be extremely valuable at pick 250.

Bubba Chandler, RHP, 22, Pittsburgh Pirates, 6’2”/200, AAA (ADP: 280)

Chandler has long been known as an athlete, dating back to his days in high school when he was committed to Clemson to play quarterback but also to be a two-way player on the baseball field. After being drafted, he gave up football but continued to be a two-way player on the diamond, pitching and playing shortstop for his first two pro seasons.

After settling in as a pitcher in 2023, Chandler had plenty of bumps in the road and made significant strides throughout the season. He built on that in 2024, tossing a dominant 119.2 innings with a 3.08 ERA, backed by a 3.10 FIP. Chandler struck out over 30 percent of the batters he faced and walked just 8.6 percent.

The most notable improvement Chandler has made over the last year has been with his command and strike-throwing ability. Landing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes, Chandler misses plenty of bats and also showed the ability to land pitches for called strikes as the season wore on.

From an arsenal standpoint, Chandler is highly impressive, featuring a fastball that routinely sits 97-98 mph with 18 inches of IVB and ten or more inches of run. Considering the 5’8” release height, Chandler’s fastball is a borderline 70-grade offering.

He pairs it with a changeup that tunnels well off the fastball and has excellent fading action, sitting in the upper 80s. It averages 17 inches of arm-side fade with a late tumbling action.

The slider could end up being a 70-grade pitch if he harnesses the command of it some, as it sits anywhere from 87-90 with a strong gyro shape. Few pitchers have three pitches as strong as Chandler’s arsenal.

Chandler looks like one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Since the start of June, Chandler posted a 2.27 ERA across 91 innings with 115 strikeouts and just 22 walks. He has thrown strikes at a 66 percent clip, easily the best mark of his career. We are looking at a potential front-line arm.

Verdict: Chandler is likely to start the year in Triple-A, but following the Skenes route from 2024 is highly possible. Chandler is coming off a 120-inning season and pitched 111 the season before, so there aren’t worries there. The price is a little high for someone who may spend two months in the minors, but if you are able to stomach him on your bench for a little while, he could return major value in the second half.

Kumar Rocker, RHP, 25, Texas Rangers, 6’5”/245, MLB (ADP: 289)

It has been a wild career arc to get to where Rocker is presently, but the present version of Rocker looks like one of the better pitchers in baseball. A first-round talent out of high school, Rocker opted to attend Vanderbilt, where he formed the top one-two punch in college baseball with Jack Leiter. After being selected by the Mets tenth overall in 2021, New York decided not to sign him due to medical reasons. Rocker spent the 2022 season pitching in Indy ball, where he pitched well enough for the Rangers to select him third overall in 2022.

Rocker made six starts in 2023 before going down with Tommy John surgery. He returned from injury and looked like a completely different arm in his post-TJ era. In 29.2 innings in Double-A and Triple-A, Rocker posted a 0.91 ERA with 47 strikeouts and four walks. This earned Rocker a trip to the majors, where he pitched 11.2 strong innings.

Rocker is an example of how fast pitching prospects can change their trajectory. It only takes watching a couple of starts and having that data sample to see a player is different. If you remember the 2022 Arizona Fall League, you can remember how out of wack Rocker’s mechanics had gotten. The expectations were low, and Rocker came back and dominated. The command is stellar. The stuff looks as good as ever. Rocker looks like the best version of himself right now.

Rocker is consistently sitting 96-98 mph with his fastball and touching triple digits. From his lower release point, he is throwing a pitch resembling a two-seam fastball, regularly showing 15-17 inches of arm-side movement. Seven feet of extension allow the pitch to play up even beyond that velocity.

His slider has nice depth in a gyro shape and reaches 90 mph. It gets insane amounts of whiffs, and hitters often look silly against it. Rocker is mixing a changeup but does not need to throw it that often. It will be interesting to watch how much he uses it in 2025, as he averages nearly 90 mph with the pitch and 15 inches of arm-side fade.

The crazy thing is Rocker posted a 71 percent strike rate last year. For reference, that is higher than Zebby Matthews, an elite control artist. His swinging strike rate is a Minor League-best 24.4 percent over the span he pitched. The CSW, an insane 39 percent.

Rocker’s injury history and struggles with mechanics seem to be behind him now. His 2024 dominance gives a lot of confidence heading into 2025 that he can be a staple in the Rangers rotation.

Verdict: Rocker legitimately looked like the best version of himself in 2025. Innings are still a question after throwing just 48 in 2024, but Rocker is set to be in the Rangers rotation out of camp. If he gives you 130-140 innings, he easily outperforms his ADP and likely by a wide margin.

Andrew Painter, RHP, 21, Philadelphia Phillies, 6’7”/215, AA (ADP: 306)

After going down with an injury in Spring Training of 2023, Painter went the rest and recovery route. Unfortunately, that ended in him having Tommy John Surgery on July 25, 2023.

After being selected in the first round of the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter tossed 103.2 innings in 2022, moving from Single-A to Double-A while posting a 1.56 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 25 walks. He looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball, and it was not close. Painter was on the verge of making his MLB debut out of Spring Training in 2023 and would have been 19 when he debuted.

Pre-TJ Fastball

Painter’s fastball averaged nearly 97 mph in 2022, reaching 101 with incredible IVB (induced vertical break), creating a rising effect at the top of the zone, especially given the high spin rates. It produced a ton of swing-and-miss and set up the rest of the arsenal well.

Arizona Fall League Fastball

So far in the Arizona Fall League, he has sat at 97 mph and touched 100 mph. The velocity is fully back, and Painter saw his fastball have up to 19 inches of IVB on Friday but averaged closer to 16.2 inches with around five inches of horizontal movement. The VAA of -5.5 is pretty solid, given his 6’4” release height. The fastball location has improved in each of his starts, with the start on Thursday easily being his best.

The velocity being back from his first start is highly important. The command will only get better with the pitch, but it already looks like the plus offering that it was pre-surgery.

Pre-TJ Slider

The slider drops in the mid-to-low 80s, averaging 10-13 inches of sweeping action with a great feel for spin. Painter hides it well and creates deception by using a late-breaking action. It has a good feel for late depth, and the horizontal movement also comes late.

Arizona Fall League Slider

Painter threw seven sliders on Thursday which was the same number he threw in his previous start. The pitch has sat around 88 mph in each of the last two outings and has touched 90 mph. While averaging 7.5 inches of horizontal, it has registered as high as 10 inches and has also shown good depth. Locations were much better in his most recent start, burying it down and away from righties. This pitch is more of the cutter/slider he debuted in Spring Training of 2023 versus the longer horizontal one that he previously threw.

Pre-TJ Changeup and Curveball

Painter also mixes in a changeup, which made major strides in 2022, sitting in the high-80s. The curve is the lesser of the two breakers, but you can still argue it is a plus pitch in the upper-70s. It has a two-plane break but less depth than the typical curveball.

Arizona Fall League Changeup and Curve

The curveball has remained strong, sitting between 80-81 mph. It has shown depth and sweeping action, averaging negative three inches of IVB and nine inches of sweeping action. It has registered as low as negative six inches of IVB with up to 13 inches of sweep.

Painter has thrown one changeup, but not in his most recent start. It was a firm 91 mph pitch with carry and 16 inches of fading action.

Andrew Painter Performance and 2025 Outlook

Painter is up to seven innings of work in the AFL and is slated to reach a 20-innings limit. He has allowed three earned runs and struck out seven batters but has gotten better each start. I will see him live next Wednesday and report back with more details.

As far as 2025 goes, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski doesn't have a timeline on when Painter will be on the major league roster in 2025. He said:

Painter could be on the Opening Day roster, and I would not be shocked. It would also not surprise me if he starts in Triple-A and gets a month there before his debut. One thing is certain- the Phillies are a team with playoff aspirations that will want Andrew Painter healthy in the postseason.

120 innings feels like a real possibility for Painter in 2025. Let’s break that up over a full season's workload of 30 starts, and you have around four innings per outing. Given that we have seen Painter threw three innings in the Fall League already, so you would expect out of the gate in 2025..Maybe it's a 75-pitch limit? Regardless, I think you get results for Painter. The strides he has made in three AFL starts have been impressive, and with an entire offseason and Spring Training of prep, I think we will see him get back to the Painter we saw in 2022, one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Verdict: Given that Dombrowski said Painter will pitch in the majors “July-ish” is concerning. They want the innings in the post-season and I get that. If he debuts July 1, I can’t project more than 13 starts and 60 innings. Hard pass in redraft at the ADP.

Rhett Lowder, RHP, 23, Cincinnati Reds, 6’2”/200, MLB (ADP: 390)

After some bumpy starts upon being promoted to Double-A, Lowder got hot post-All-Star break and earned himself a promotion to Triple-A. Lowder turned in six scoreless innings without walking a batter and struck out seven in the process. He has allowed just two total earned runs in six starts since the All-Star break, good for a 0.51 ERA in 35 innings. The season-long MiLB ERA sat at 3.64 across 108.2 innings and Lowder was even better in the six MLB starts where he posted a 1.17 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 30.2 innings.

His four-seam fastball sits around 94-95 mph, showing a decent ride and around 10 inches of arm-side run. The sinker sits around 93 mph, having averaged 16-19 inches of arm-side run consistently, and he locates it well in the zone. Not only does Lowder command his fastball well, but he also gets a ton of strikes with his slider and changeup. Lowder’s slider sits between 85 and 87 mph, averaging nearly 2800 rpm of spin with a strong gyro shape.

Like many former Wake Forest arms, Lowder’s changeup is his best pitch, as it tunnels well with his fastball and dives off the map. Sitting between 86 and 88 mph on the regular, mimicking the sinker well. It shows late depth and 17 inches of arm-side fade consistently.

Lowder is a pitchable arm with excellent command, throwing a ton of strikes. His strike rate this year has sat around 67 percent, and it comes with decent bat-missing ability. Lowder has a high floor thanks to his strike-throwing and is a safe bet to be a mid-rotation arm in the majors.

Verdict: Lowder is likely to start the season in Triple-A given the Reds trade for Brady Singer and bringing back Nick Martinez. He should still make half a season worth of starts in the Majors, but the ceiling is limited. He can eat innings with a lower strikeout rate. Im probably passing at ADP, but I understand the appeal of drafting him.

Quinn Mathews, LHP, 24, St. Louis Cardinals, 6’5”/188, AAA (ADP: 407)

Mathews went from a low-90s innings-eating arm out of Stanford, who went in the fourth round in 2023, to one of the top pitching prospects in baseball very fast. After sitting 91.5 mph at Stanford, Mathews averaged nearly 95 mph this year.

From a performance standpoint, Mathews struck out 202 batters across four levels in 143 innings pitched, lapping the field on his way to the MiLB strikeout crown. The combination of the ability to go deep into games, plus the strikeout stuff, has Mathews on the cusp of pitching in the Cardinals rotation.

The fastball ticked up, as previously mentioned, but it can reach 98 with 17 inches of IVB, which is above average from his 5’7” release height. Mathews gets a solid extension and had an impressive whiff rate on the fastball.

The slider is Mathews’ most used secondary, sitting north of 85 mph and having a gyro shape. The changeup has heavy arm-side movement, around 81 mph, his highest whiff rate offering of any pitch. Mathews rounds out his arsenal with a two-plane curveball in the mid-70s, giving him four true velocity bands.

When you pair an above-average strike thrower with a major tick-up in stuff, you have the makings of a high-floor arm. Mathews commands his pitches well and misses plenty of bats, having a swinging strike rate north of 17 percent this year. The CSW, an impressive 34 percent, is one of the best marks in Minor League Baseball. I would expect Mathews to be a part of the Cardinals rotation for at least 20 starts in 2025.

Verdict: Mathews nearly made his MLB debut in 2024. Their rotation is not great and I would not be shocked to see at least 100 MLB innings. Mathews has as high of a floor as Lowder with much more upside. Buy.

Sean Burke, RHP, 25, Chicago White Sox, 6’6”/230, MLB (ADP: 421)

Burke missed the early parts of 2024 due to a shoulder injury. After returning to Triple-A in late May, Burke pitched quite well considering the home ballpark in Charlotte and the hitter-friendly International League. Posting a 4.62 ERA across 64 innings won't impress anyone, but a handful of rough starts skewed the ERA a bit. After getting the call to the majors, Burke was rather impressive, posting a 1.42 ERA across 19 innings with 22 strikeouts.

With a strike rate slightly below average, Burke walked 13 percent of hitters in Triple-A, but the zone there is fairly tight with the ABS system. The four-seam fastball is Burke’s primary offering, sitting around 95 mph with over 18 inches of IVB from his 6’2” release height. The pitch gets heavy extension near seven feet and has high spin rates, which allow it to play well up in the zone.

The slider is a gyro-shape, sitting 85-87 mph and missing bats at a high clip. It pairs well with his change, which sits in a similar velocity band and has a heavy arm-side movement of 14 inches. The changeup and slider have slightly lower release points than the fastball and curveball.

Burke’s curveball has impressive depth, around negative 16 inches of IVB, and is in the upper 70s. It has an 11-5 shape and nearly 40 percent whiff rate in 2024.

Given the impressive results down the stretch, including in the majors, Burke looks primed to begin the year in the Majors in 2025. The arsenal is strong, and if Burke can throw enough strikes, he can be a solid arm moving forward.

Verdict: Guaranteed MLB innings from a pitching prospect post-pick 400? Sign me up. Burke showed improved command/control in the Majors last year in his debut. The stuff is solid and I am buying at the price.

Michael McGreevy, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals, 24, 6’4”/220, MLB (ADP: 475)

The value of an arm that can throw consistent innings year-over-year is sometimes under-appreciated, and I was guilty of that myself. After throwing 150 innings in Triple-A, posting a 4.02 ERA in a hitter-friendly International League, McGreevy threw 23 more innings in the Majors, posting a 1.96 ERA. After pitching over 100 innings in college in 2021, McGreevy has thrown at least 144 or more innings every season since, with this year pushing to 173.

From an arsenal perspective, McGreevy leads with a sinker in the 91-92 mpg range. It gets heavy arm-side movement with nice sinking action and above-average extensions. He also mixes a four-seam fastball, but it is a pitch that gets below-average IVB from his 5’10” release height.

The cutter sits around 89 mph with good carry, but the slider is probably McGreevy’s best secondary, sitting around 84 mph with depth and consistently over 10 inches of sweeping action.

McGreevy utilizes a changeup with minimal velocity separation from the sinker and has a similar movement profile. He rounds out the deep arsenal with a two-plane curveball with depth and heavy sweeping action. The pitch averaged 79 mph in 2024.

The strike-throwing is slightly better than average, and McGreevy locates his pitches well. The ceiling is pretty capped by his low whiff totals, but the ability to limit hard contact and pitch deep into starts is a solid skill.

Verdict: Few can eat innings like McGreevy can. He and Mathews can co-exit in the same rotation. While its not a flashy profile, innings are king in a DC format and you can grab some here.

Cade Cavalli, RHP, 26, Washington Nationals, 6’4”/223, MLB (ADP: 564)

There has never been much doubting of Cavalli’s stuff dating back to his days at Oklahoma, but the durability is somewhat concerning. In his first pro season in 2021, Cavalli made it to Triple-A and had the most successful season of his career as he pitched 123.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA and 175 strikeouts.

In a season where Cavalli was slated to return to action, he pitched just eight innings due to a “dead arm” and the flu setting him back in when he returned to High-A. The last time we saw Cavalli on the mound was 2022. His Triple-A numbers then were strong as he struck out 104 batters across 97 innings with a 3.71 ERA.

When healthy, Cavalli has a fastball sitting near 96 and touching near triple digits while featuring a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve is his most used secondary, which sits in the mid-80s and averages nearly 50 inches of vertical break. The slider and changeup sit in a similar velocity band in the upper 80s, having over 25 inches of separation between the two.

With health, Cavalli could take off as a starting pitcher, but there are risks given Cavalli’s health track record and durability.

Verdict: The Nationals are suddenly crowded with SP after signing Michael Soroka and bringing back Trevor Williams. The talent level with Cavalli is second to any pitcher in the MLB rotation though, behind MacKenzie Gore. A total of eight innings since 2022 is concerning, but now two years removed from Tommy John, Cavalli seems poised to take a step forward in 2025. Nothing is guaranteed at pick 564, so take the upside shot here.

Chase Dollander, RHP, 23, Colorado Rockies, 6’2”/200, AA (ADP: 649)

Dollander established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball this year. This is probably no surprise if you followed him throughout his college career at Tennessee. One of the best pitchers in the country entering his draft year, Dollander did show some struggles, but the Rockies did not shy away from taking ninth overall in 2023.

Splitting time between High-A and Double-A this year, Dollander pitched 118 innings, posting a 2.59 ERA with 169 strikeouts and 47 walks. The FIP was quite impressive, as well, having a 2.92 mark while striking out 34 percent of batters and walking nine percent of hitters faced.

Dollander’s fastball is a true 70- grade offering. Among pitchers who threw 500 fastballs in the minors, only four had a swinging strike rate of 20 percent of higher, Dollander was one of them. He threw 1200 fastballs, generating a 21 percent swinging strike rate. It sat between 96 and 97, regularly touching triple digits. It comes in with an insanely flat -4 VAA with 16 inches of IVB from a 5’5” release height. Not to mention the pitch gets good arm-side movement, north of ten inches, often with strong location.

The curveball showed high spin and a beautiful two-plane break, missing bats at a high rate, sitting in the upper 70s. Dollander also works as a slider/cutter that sits around 88 mph but can touch 90. Dollander’s changeup is very underrated and plays very well against left-handed hitters, showing up to 20 inches of horizontal fade.

With a deep arsenal of pitches, Dollander also throws strikes at an above-average clip. Dollander has all the ingredients to be the best pitcher the Rockies have seen in a long time. He has the stuff to beat Coors Field.

Verdict: Yes, Dollander is going to pitch his home game in Coors, and yes he has not pitched above Double-A. I don’t think that stops him from getting 100 MLB innings in 2025. He has the best stuff in the minors and is an impressive strike-thrower. Even with the Mangus effect and more vertical drop in the ball, Dollander will still have above-average IVB on his fastball in Coors while sitting 96-97 and one of the flattest VAAs among starting pitchers. Losing four inches of fade on his changeup? Okay Dollander will still have plus horizontal movement and even more depth on it. I think Dollander is the best pitcher the Rockies have seen since Jon Gray and he has better swing-and-miss stuff. Easiest buy in DCs in my opinion.

Adam Mazur, RHP, 23, Miami Marlins, 6’2”/180, MLB (ADP: 746)

After a very strong start to the 2024 season in Double-A, Mazur spent 33.2 innings in the Majors with the Padres, which did not go well. After returning to Triple-A, Mazur struggled and seemingly lost his confidence. The Padres traded Mazur to the Marlins in the Tanner Scott deal. While his time in Triple-A Jacksonville had some bumpy starts, it was overall positive.

The Marlins changed his pitch usage pretty substantially. Here are the results:

While the pitch mix did change, his release point also changed. After being on the first base side of the rubber with the Padres, he moved a little closer to first base immediately after the trade. It seems like the Marlins saw something before the August 21 start. His horizontal release point moved over a foot toward the third base side.

In the process, his fastball began to get more IVB and horizontal movement, sitting around 95 mph. The slider also played up, sitting around 87 mph with a slight gyro shape. The low-80s curveball had its usual depth at negative ten IVB but added more glove-side movement.

Mazur’s changeup had more carry and more horizontal movement, and the increased sinker usage played a big factor as it saw increased IVB and more horizontal movement. The changes in the arsenal could be the key to Mazur’s future success as a starting pitcher in the MLB.

Mazur landed 66 percent of his pitches for strikes, an above-average mark, while missing bats at a solid clip. He posted a 13.4 percent swinging strike rate while having a 28 percent CSW. Given the changes and a full offseason with Miami, I am buying in.

Verdict: Mazur has been drafted just three times in 58 completed Draft Champions leagues. The Marlins projected rotation pitched 277 innings last year and has more question marks than nearly any team in baseball. Mazur has MLB experience the made significant strides after Miami made some changes post-trade. A full-offseason of work with the org, and I think he could be very solid in 2025. He could break camp with the team and I would not be shocked.