Prospects to Target in Redraft (NFBC Draft & Holds): Corner Infield

This week, I will be breaking down prospects that you should be targeting in NFBC Draft and Hold formats. These articles will be evergreen all offseason and applicable to NFBC formats and all redrafts. This article will go extremely deep, given the nature of the 50-round draft and hold format that NFBC hosts.

All ADPs referenced will be from NFBC Draft Champions, and I will give thoughts on their potential value in relation to that ADP.

Corner Infield Prospects to Target in Redraft

Matt Shaw, 2B, 23, Chicago Cubs, 5’9”/185, AAA (ADP: 326)

After a slow start, Shaw steadily improved all year. The Southern League has played weird this year, to say the least, and Shaw put up a 148 wRC+ there. The former first-rounder then jumped to Triple-A and looked even better. Shaw finished the year there with a .298/.395/.534 slash there for a combined .284/.379/.488 slash with 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

Post All-Star break, Shaw slashed an impressive .335/.417/.585 with 11 home runs and 23 extra-base hits. He punched out in just 15 percent of plate appearances over that span. The underlying data also backs the strong performance.

The 90th percentile exit velocity sat just north of 105 mph, and he pairs it with a near 91 mph average exit velocity. The good thing is Shaw does not try to force power and hits line drives to all fields well. He gets the ball in the air often, having an air percentage of 57 percent. The pull percentage is fairly low at 36 percent and could be something Shaw works on to get to more power.

The contact skills are strong, as Shaw made contact on over 75 percent of all swings this year with an in-zone rate near 81 percent. He also exhibits strong plate discipline skills and rarely chases out of the zone, even though that number did rise in Triple-A.

Shaw has a skill set that is as well-rounded as you can find at the plate. No tool is elite, but the sum of the parts is what makes Shaw such a good prospect who could excel in the Majors for a long time.

Verdict: Shaw is slated to be in the Cubs Opening Day lineup as things stand. The cost is only rising as he has gone as high as 215 in a DC. Grab him now.

Coby Mayo, 3B, 23, Baltimore Orioles, 6’5”/230, MLB (ADP: 341)

A rough 46 plate appearances into Mayo’s MLB career, and people already want to write him off on social media. It is always interesting when a top prospect does not perform immediately, leading to many questions about the player’s profile.

Mayo did nothing but mash in the Minor League season, posting a slash of .293/.372/.592 with 25 home runs and 54 extra-base hits. He did strikeout in 25 percent of plate appearances, but some are from working deeper into pitcher counts.

Mayo has some of the best high-end exit velocities in the minors with a 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, and he has topped out at 115 mph. His 91 mph average exit velocity also shows plus or better power. The contact rates are closer to average but a 72 percent overall with a near 83 percent in-zone mark will play.

Hitting fastballs extremely well, Mayo put up a .725 slugging percentage against and had an average exit velocity north of 95 mph on four and two-seamers. Sliders gave Mayo some issues as he hit just .219 against them with a nearly 40 percent whiff rate. When you hit all other pitch types well, you can afford to have some struggles with sliders.

At the end of the day, Mayo profiles as a future 30-home-run bat who should post respectable batting averages. Whether he plays first or third base long-term is still a question, but regardless, the bat will play.

Verdict: Mayo is going fairly high in early drafts with no guaranteed path to playing time. As things stand, it is hard to project Mayo for more than 150 plate appearances in 2025. Easy pass at ADP unless a trade happens.

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B, 21, Miami Marlins, 6’1”/185, AAA (ADP: 439)

De Los Santos is the most interesting profile in the minors, in my opinion. He is one of the hardest players to evaluate, as his profile and performance tell two different pictures. On the one hand, De Los Santos slashed .294/.343/.571 with 40 home runs and 67 extra-base hits this season. It was one of the most impressive performances in 2024 of any minor leaguer and yet it is easy to sit and question- how did he do it?

It was an interesting season for De Los Santos, starting with last offseason. The Diamondbacks left De Los Santos unprotected for the Rule 5 draft and the Guardians plucked him. De Los Santos was returned to Arizona and then traded to Miami.

It is impressive that De Los Santos continued to hit all year despite poor contact and extreme chase rates. In Double-A the contact rate sat at 62 percent. In Triple-A, the number did improve to near 65 percent, with a 77 percent in-zone contact. The chase rate was one of the worst in the minors, sitting around 45 percent.

On the flip side, De Los Santos had a 109 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which was near the peak of all minor league hitters. His max exit velocity- an impressive 116 mph.

There are still major long-term concerns about whether or not De Los Santos will hit enough to get to his elite power. The chase rate is a major issue, as well as issues with contact against breaking balls. Maybe De Los Santos is an enigma and able to enjoy a long career of 30+ home run seasons, but he will need to improve contact skills and plate discipline.

Verdict: I am far from a De Los Santos truther, but there is a path to playing time in Miami and plenty of power. Buy for the power upside.

Nick Kurtz, 1B, 22, Athletics, 6’5”/235, AA (ADP: 584)

If you want one of the safest profiles from the 2024 draft, it is Nick Kurtz. In all three seasons at Wake Forest, Kurtz has hit and hit some more. He finished his college career with 61 home runs in 164 games, including 22 this season in 54 games. Having a strong eye at the plate, Kurtz finished his Wake career with a .510 OBP and 189 walks to just 130 strikeouts over 784 plate appearances.

The pressure on the bat to play first base is a high threshold to reach. Just look at other highly drafted first basemen over the years. It is one reason teams shy away from this demographic. However, Kurtz has all the intangibles needed to be successful. He hits the ball extremely hard, makes excellent swing decisions, makes plenty of contact, and has for his entire college career.

The lefty's average exit velocity of 94 mph ranked in the 98th percentile among college hitters, and his 111 mph 90th percentile exit velocity ranked in the 100th percentile. He makes plenty of contact, posting an overall mark near 80 percent and an in-zone rate near 87.

Kurtz’s sub-14 percent chase rate puts him in the elite group with others like Bazzana and Wetherholt. The question is, is Kurtz too passive? Is a 30 percent walk rate too high? I would say yes. His zone-swing percentage is pretty low, and while that can change, you would like to see him get a bit more aggressive.

The pro debut checked every box you want to see, even in a small sample. Reaching Double-A, Kurtz slashed .368/.520/.763 with more walks than strikeouts and seven extra-base hits. The contact skills carried over to pro ball, and Kurtz's hard-hit numbers with wood were also strong, having a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 109 mph.

Verdict: I love the potential profit margin on Kurtz. While he won’t break camp with the team, he could give you over half of the season in the big league lineup and it could be a very valuable amount of plate appearances. At the price, Kurtz is a buy.

Bryce Eldridge, 1B, 20, San Francisco Giants, 6’7”/223, AAA (ADP: 571)

Few prospects had the meteoric rise that Eldridge made in 2024. The talent level has been long known since he was selected 16th overall in the 2023 MLB Draft. Selected as a two-way prospect, Eldridge gave up pitching immediately and then shifted from outfield solely to first base in 2024.

Moving from Single-A to Triple-A by season's end, Eldridge even went to the Arizona Fall League, where he dominated for ten more games. Between all stops, he mashed 23 home runs and added 27 doubles and two triples. The slash of .292/.374/.516 stands out for a 19-year-old, and Eldridge only made improvements all year.

As you can see, a pretty dreadful start to the season was pretty good. While the contact rates were still closer to average in the good months, those numbers will play for a power hitter like Eldridge. Considering the long levers and larger zone, ending the year with a contact rate of around 70 percent is quite solid.

There is no denying the kind of power Eldridge brings to the table, as his 90th percentile exit velocity near 107 mph is a high-end mark for a 19-year-old. Not only does he hit the ball hard, but Eldridge also puts batted balls at ideal angles. His air percentage north of 60 percent stands out, and the fact he can get to the pull side helps.

Eldridge is aggressive on pitches in the zone, having a mark near 85 percent, but also shows better than average chase rates around 26 percent. While the zone-contact rate does not stand out, they have been average.

The swing is relatively smooth, and the power comes naturally. Eldridge uses a toe-tap on all counts and starts with his hands high pre-swing before dropping them down into a slot to begin his swing. The bat's speed is electric, and Eldridge has strong wrists to help generate power. Considering how long his arms are, the swing is relatively short, and he has a direct path to the ball.

Eldridge has risen to the top of first-base prospects thanks to the impressive performance and underlying data. This looks like a future 30-home-run bat who hits for a good average.

Verdict: Despite Eldridge making it to Triple-A by seaons end, it is hard to imagine they rush him to the majors. He might start the year in Double-A and could spend nearly all of 2025 in the minors. Pass at the price point.

Bryan Ramos, 3B, 23, Chicago White Sox, 6’2”/225, MLB (ADP: 589)

It was a strange start to the season for Ramos, who struggled out of the gate in Double-A before being pushed to the majors, where, to no surprise, the struggles continued. Upon his demotion to the minors, Ramos was sent to Triple-A, where his performance was fine but nothing like his 2023 season. He wound up playing the final three weeks of the season in Chicago.

While it was a strange season, Ramos showed some good things. The exit velocity data took a step back, and the 90th percentile exit velocity of 103.5 was much closer to the MLB average. The average exit velocity was solid, with a mark near 89 mph, and the plate discipline was impressive.

Ramos does not expand the zone often, with a chase rate of around 24 percent between all levels, including the majors. His contact skills are fringe-average, with an overall mark of around 70 percent and 80 percent in-zone.

Lifting the ball easily, Ramos hits it hard enough to be a consistent 20-home-run bat. That projection is lower than I thought after seeing his 2023 data, so there is always a chance we will see the exit velocities tick back up in 2025. Given the MLB experience, Ramos should be in the White Sox lineup on Opening Day in 2025.

Verdict: Ramos is not slated to be on the White Sox Opening Day roster, at least according to Roster Resource. That creates a good buying opportunity. Going as late as pick 746 and even undrafted in one DC, you could do worse. Im buying Ramos late in drafts.

Otto Kemp, INF, 25, Philadelphia Phillies, 5’11”/185, AAA (ADP: Not Drafted)

An undrafted free agent out of Point Loma Nazarene, Kemp is an unlikely candidate to be knocking on the door of an MLB debut. But that is precisely what Kemp is doing, as the 2024 season saw him put up a .285/.392/.489 slash with 16 home runs, 24 doubles, and nine triples. Kemp swiped 20 bases as he climbed from Single-A to Triple-A by season’s end.

While not having flashy tools, Kemp is a steady performer. He makes consistent contact, showing average or better overall and in-zone marks. The chase rate was better than the league average, and Kemp posted pretty respectable exit velocities.

Kemp has quicks and a single swing, using his lower half to generate a ton of power. Hitting a ball near 116 mph this year stands out, and Kemp is very effective on the base paths. Having played every position in the field except catcher and centerfield in 2024, Kemp could be a nice utility piece for the Phillies in 2025.

Verdict: Kemp has not been selected in an NFBC league to this point. This is a last round dart throw, but Kemp’s versatility is huge and could lead to him getting some at-bats, even in a stacked Phillies lineup. The lineup is loaded, but Kemp’s bat is sneaky good. Take the shot on him and see where it goes.