Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Philadelphia Phillies top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Philadelphia Phillies Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Cristopher Sánchez, LHP, 28, 6’1”/165

Are we still underrating Sánchez? I have definetly been guilty of it. After breaking out in 99 innings in 2023 when he posted a 3.44 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, the success continued into 2024. Sánchez posted a 3.32 ERA in 181.2 innings and while the WHIP went up and he struck out just 20 percent of batters, he also had a 15 percent strikeout minus walk rate.

So while Sánchez is somewhat boring and reliable, he also added a new pitch. he has not said what it is, but speculation is it could be a cutter. We may have to wait and see what he debuts in game action, but if it leads to a tick up in strikeouts, Sánchez could return great value in dynasty.

MLB Breakout: Orion Kerkering, RHP, 23, 6’2”/204

Honestly, how do you pick a breakout amidst a team full of stars? That’s why Orion Kerkering was the pick. Jordan Romano was unreliable last year and has struggled with injuries. Could Kerkering see time in the closer role this year? I think so.

Kerkering has been a long-time favorite of mine, dating back to his minor league days. He spent 2024 in the majors, where he threw 63 innings, having a 2.29 ERA and a 29 percent strikeout rate.

Leading with a sweeper, Kerkering averages between 16 and 17 inches of horizontal movement and misses bats at a high clip. His 98 mph four-seam also has solid traits and posted a 28 percent whiff rate last year.

Kerkering commands his pitches well, and limits his walk. The team brought in Jordan Romano to close, but I would not be shocked if Kerkering was good enough to take the closer role in time.

MLB Bust: JT Realmuto, C, 34, 6’1”/212

I am a little afraid Realmuto is entering the decline stage of his career. The team has already said he will get fewer starts at catcher to preserve his body. How does he fit into the lineup if he is not catching? Harper has first base locked down, and Schwarber is at DH. Could they give Schwarber reps in the outfield? It is possible.

Knee injuries limited Realmuto to the fewest plate appearances of his career in 2024, as he has just 413. The OBP has dropped the last two seasons and the power metrics have also taken a step back.

Realmuto’s 89.2 mph average exit velocity is the lowest we have seen from him since 2018, and his ground ball rate jumped to 45 percent, up from 38 percent in 2023. He pulled the ball less, and the air-pull percentage dropped.

The overall contact rate and chase rate are lower than you would like to see as well. Honestly, I don’t expect Realmuto to be a complete bust. But I do fear age could be catching up, given the wear and tear of catching over the years. He is still going to be productive, but maybe not at the price that he cost in a redraft league, or even with the name value he carries in dynasty.

Philadelphia Phillies Prospect Sleeper: Moises Chace, RHP, 21, 6’1”/213, AA

Chace dominated pretty much all year, and it was a bit surprising to see him traded from the Orioles to the Phillies at the deadline. Underrated in most circles, Chace was pushed aggressively by the Phillies to Double-A where he performed. Across 80 innings in High-A and Double-A, Chace posted a 3.59 ERA and an impressive 25 percent strikeout minus walk rate.

Obviously, the walks are an issue, considering Chace posted a 12 percent walk rate and a 61 percent strike rate. Those numbers did improve all year, though. After being traded to Philadelphia, Chace walked less than nine percent of hitters while having a strike rate near 63 percent.

Chace’s fastball is exceptionally flat from a low release point and has a very high IVB, making it quite the outlier. It sits in the 93-95 mph range, but touches 97 with 18 inches of IVB from a 5’4” release height and over ten inches of arm-side run.

The changeup plays well off the fastball, having ten or more mph of separation and 12 inches of fade. The slider sits in the low-80s with heavy sweeping action, averaging over a foot of horizontal movement.

If the control gains we saw at the end of the season stick, Chace has very strong stuff. He could vault to the top of the systems pitching prospects after Painter graduates.

Philadelphia Phillies Prospect Breakout: Aroon Escobar, INF, 20, 5’10”/180, FCL

Escobar is an interesting profile and one that is a data darling. Missing some time at the complex, Escobar only played 24 games, but he made the most of it, slashing .338/.495/.481 with three home runs and nine stolen bases. Escobar was not caught stealing and walked twice as often as he struck out.

The underlying data is highly impressive for a 19-year-old at the time. He chased at a sub-20 percent clip and made strong contact, posting an in-zone contact rate near 85 percent. He puts the ball in the air often enough and gets to the pull-side at a near 40 percent mark.

The exit velocity data stands out, as Escobar posted a 90th-percentile exit velocity north of 104 mph. Given the combo of skills, Escobar looks like a potential breakout in 2025.