New York Yankees Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated New York Yankees top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

New York Yankees Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Austin Wells, C, 26, 6’2”/220

The performance Wells put together in the second half of 2024 is a good indication of what he could be moving forward. Sure, the season-long line of .229/.322/.395 with 13 home runs in 414 plate appearances leaves a lot to be desired. But Wells was also a rookie and showed steady improvements throughout the season.

While he did not light up that stat sheet, Wells hit 11 of his 13 home runs in his final 260 plate appearances and had 22 extra base hits over that span. The fact that the majority of Wells batted balls have landed in the 100-110 mph interval is impressive. The barrel rate rose all year and sat at 11 percent from July forward.

Wells has seen improvements in air percentage this year while also pulling the ball more often, which bodes well for the lefty in Yankee Stadium. He has also shown growth in contact and chase rate this year, showing Wells skills will play exceptionally well in a points league or OBP format.

He has shown all these improvements at the plate while also looking quite good behind the dish. Wells looks like a top-ten catcher moving forward. Buy in now.

MLB Breakout: Anthony Volpe, SS, 23, 5’9”/180

Who even is Anthony Volpe at this point? During his rookie season, Volpe mashed 21 home runs and stole 24 bases. A 20/20 season from a 22-year-old rookie will play. While it came with bad contact skills and a .209/.283/.383 slash line, Volpe provided a ton of value in the field.

In 2024, Volpe traded power for contact, seeing his overall contact rate jump six percentage points and his zone-contact rate improve by two percentage points. In the process, Volpe’s average exit velocity dropped a tick, but his barrel rate fell by five percentage points, largely due to a jump in ground ball rate.

If you look at his Baseball Savant profile, you probably wonder why I am writing up Volpe in the breakout column. A mechanical tweak in the swing led to an improved postseason for Volpe. He began starting more squatted and with his hands lower, looking to be in a more comfortable position. His head moved much less and things improved.

While Volpe did not dominate the postseason, he still had four extra-base hits and a .286/.407/.408 slash in 14 games. The bat speed increased by two mph, and his hard-hit rate jumped by nearly 20 percentage points. Can it carry over into 2025? That is to be determined, but I would take my chances.

MLB Bust: Luis Gil, RHP, 26, 6’2”/185

Coming off a 2024 season that saw him with AL Rookie of the Year, expectations are high on Luis Gil. Putting together quite a strong season, Gil posted a 3.50 ERA across 151.2 innings with a 27 percent strikeout rate but a 12 percent walk rate. Despite that, he kept the WHIP in check, having a 1.19 mark.

Gil does have a strong arsenal of pitches, starting with his 97 mph fastball that produced a strong 29 percent whiff rate last season. The issue is, Gil’s zone rate and strike rate on the four-seam were both 22nd percentile for all pitchers.

The slider and changeup are also effective secondaries, but Gil also struggles to land them for strikes. While the stuff is there, locations and command are bad. He had the worst Location+ of any qualified starting pitcher according to Eno Sarris’s model.

Gil’s walk rate rose all season and over the final two months, it sat around 14 percent. Over that span he also only struck out 22 percent of batters.

While I don’t think Gil is a complete bust and will still have value, there is quite a bit of risk with his profile.

New York Yankees Prospect Sleeper: Ben Shields, LHP, 26, 6’4”/210, AAA

It was a long journey for Shields to his MLB Draft date 2023. After beginning college in 2018 at the University of Massachusetts, Shields spent four years there before transferring to George Mason for the 2023 and 2023 seasons. Going unselected in the 2023 draft, Shields signed an undrafted free-agent deal with the Yankees.

Making his pro debut, Shields pitched 104.1 innings between High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.94 ERA while striking out 136 batters. Shields got a brief cameo in Triple-A in May, where he was BABIP’d to death and allowed nine runs in 1.2 innings. He was immediately sent back to High A.

The stuff with Shields is good, and he throws strikes at an impressive clip. Despite being older through his career trajectory, Shields can be fast-tracked and has proved he is durable and can handle innings.

He starts with a four-seam fastball that gets 6’7” of extension and sits around 92 mph. The fastball lacks stand-out traits, but Shields gets good arm-side movement on the pitch and has registered as high as 18 inches of IVB from a lower 5’6” release height.

The slider was used nearly as often as his fastball, sitting 81-82 mph, the same velocity band as his curveball. The two pitches are distinct, though, as both pitches have strong sweeping action, but the curveball has much more depth.

Considering Shields locates his pitches well and threw strikes at a rate north of 65 percent, well above average, he could profile as a backend starter. The track record is short, but Shields can pitch, which is much more important than his age. He could start 2025 in Triple-A and make his MLB debut at some point next season.

New York Yankees Prospect Breakout: Brian Sanchez, OF, 20, 6’3”/170, CPX

I think Sanchez impressed me the most of any player I saw on my trip to the Florida Complex League. A physically imposing 6’3” lefty that has a ton of projection and already has good exit velocities with speed? Everything I saw from Sanchez checked the boxes. Maybe you are scared off by the age, but don’t be; Sanchez just turned 20 in July.

He utilizes a big leg kick but has minimal pre-swing hand movement. The hands move quickly through the zone, and Sanchez can hit the ball to all fields well. The only flaw I can find is his nearly 49 percent ground ball rate.

Otherwise, things look pretty solid. It is only four home runs in 49 games, but Sanchez has 16 doubles and four triples. The slash is an impressive .306/.394/.514. This season, he has posted a max exit velocity of 113.5 and has a 90th percentile right at MLB average, 103.5 mph.

Sanchez is patient, like many hitters in the FCL Yankees lineup, running a good walk rate supported by a 21 percent chase rate. The contact skills are a little more suspect right now, but they are at an in-zone mark north of 80 percent and have an overall contact rate of 71.5 percent.

Despite average contact skills, the rest of the profile stands out. He has good plate discipline and solid power. I am fully buying in.