New York Mets Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated New York Mets top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

New York Mets Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Clay Holmes, RHP, 32, 6’5”/245

A 32-year-old converted reliever is not someone I expected to land on this list until I dug in a little more. While there has been success for some pitchers moving from the bullpen to the rotation, the hit rate is much lower than you might think. The Mets liked Holmes enough to give him a 3-year/$38 million deal this offseason to put him in the rotation.

The reality is that Holmes probably could have been a solid starting pitcher with just his sinker, slider, and sweeper. But, Holmes worked all offseason to totally reinvent his arsenal and added a four-seam fastball, a kick-changeup, and adjusted his slider. The kick-change looks nasty and gives him another weapon. The four-seam helps change hitters eye-levels. The adjusted slider is said to give him a better out pitch to right-handed hitters.

If Holmes gives you 130 innings, which he could give more, then it is a big win. The ratios should be good and Holmes has the potential to maintain a 25 percent strikeout rate, even as a starter.

MLB Breakout: Francisco Alvarez, C, 23, 5’10”/233

The sophomore slump was real for the 22-year-old Alvarez, who was coming off a 2023 rookie season in which he mashed 25 home runs in just 423 plate appearances. While the batting average of .209 left a little to be desired, Alvarez had an impressive power display as a 21-year-old in the majors.

In 2024, his season hit a snag on April 23 when Alvarez needed surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb. It was a freak accident as he slipped rounding first base, but the injury caused him to lose nearly two months of time.

We can’t blame the injury for the performance, though, as he had just one home run at the time of injury. It has been a pretty weird path since, as the ground ball rate is up nearly seven percentage points from last season, and the pull rate is down a similar mark.

The positive news is that Alvarez has made improvements in the contact department. Running a zone contact rate near 80 percent, he has shown tremendous growth in that department. The overall contact rate is just north of 70 percent, which is still below the league average but an improvement nonetheless.

The power was sapped, and that could be injury-related. The average exit velocity is down nearly two mph, and naturally, due to the higher ground ball rate, the barrels are down significantly. Last year, his 13 percent mark in that category was near elite. This year, that rate has dropped by seven percentage points.

This seems to be a product of the thumb not being fully healthy. He finished the final month strong, hitting five home runs and slashing .254/.357/.542. The contact rate jumped to finish the season, and we know the power is on the upper scale. Alvarez is one of the better buys in dynasty among catchers.

MLB Bust: Mark Vientos, 3B, 25, 6’4”/185

Hear me out before you get upset here. I don’t see Vientos as a complete bust. But in terms of having an 90 overall ADP, I think Vientos could not return value. A massive breakout in 2024, Vientos hit 27 home runs across 454 plate appearances and slashed .266/.322/.516.

Vientos has an interesting profile and we know he can hit for power. Having a 91.2 mph average exit velocity and a 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, Vientos ranks extremely well in terms of power output. The 14 percent barrel rate was 92nd percentile for MLB hitters.

The concern for me is contact. His 65 percent contact rate was one of the worst marks in the majors, and he paired it with a 75 percent in-zone contact rate. Vientos is also aggressive on pitches out of the zone, having a 33 percent chase rate.

Vientos handles fastballs well but had a 58 percent contact rate on breaking balls and offspeed. Pitchers naturally gave Vientos a heavy dose of breaking balls, with 41 percent of pitches being breaking balls.

So, I don’t see Vientos as a complete bust. The power will be there for sure. But the batting average floor might be lower than people think. Something else to watch is ground balls. While Vientos ran a 44 percent ground ball rate this year, his mark has been closer to 50 percent in previous seasons. So, just keep an eye on it.

New York Mets Prospect Sleeper: Jesus Baez, INF, 20, 5’10”/180, A+

Baez was amid a breakout in 2024 but got just eight games in High-A before his season abruptly ended on July 3. A tear in his meniscus unfortunately unfortunately ended the year with surgery, but Baez is expected to make a full recovery and return to action in 2025.

Small but mighty, the 5’10” versatile infielder has a simple swing and puts the ball on the ball often. Baez never tries to do too much in the box and lets the power come naturally. Before the injury, Baez had 232 batted ball events, having a 104.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and an average exit velocity north of 89 mph. Both marks were highly impressive for his age and frame.

Despite being aggressive, Baez does not swing and miss often, posting a 75 percent overall contact rate and an 83 percent in-zone mark. Baez is a bit aggressive, chasing at a 32 percent mark, so I am curious if it affects him as he moves up levels.

Obviously the injury is a damper on what was a major breakout. But that does not take away from the skillset. Baez was never a speedy player, and I would not expect his run times to tick down anymore. If anything, it may take time for his knee to return to full strength and the power to return.

New York Mets Prospect Breakout: Nolan McLean, RHP, 23, 6’2”/214, AA

After being a two-way player at Oklahoma State, McLean has gotten a chance to hit and pitch in pro ball, and while there is present power, the contact skills will always hold him back. McLean did not hit in a game after June 20, which suggests he may be done hitting in favor of pitching, where he is quite good.

After dominating High-A hitters in seven starts, McLean jumped to Double-A where the surface numbers of a 4.19 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP look just okay. The good news is, he pitched much better than those numbers suggest. 13 of his 25 starts were one earned run allowed or less, and in four more, he allowed just two earned runs in.

McLean’s fastball sits in the mid-90s with a heavy armside run. He throws from a 5’4” release height, which helps the pitch play at the top of the zone and has a rising effect despite the IVB not being overwhelming. With ten or more inches of horizontal movement regularly, Mclean has shown bat-missing ability with the offering.

The slider has around ten mph of velocity separation from the fastball, sitting in the mid-80s with heavy sweeping action. It has late horizontal movement, which deceives hitters, largely due to its extremely high spin rates which have been up to 3200 rpm. Watching the pitch, it is easily plus or better, and the metrics back it up.

McLean will mix a cutter and a curveball on occasion and has worked on a changeup. The biggest concern right now is command and strike-throwing, but those numbers improved all year, and McLean ended the season with a strike rate near 64 percent, which is above average. A breakout seems imminent in 2025, especially with the present stuff and future projections that McLean has.