Minnesota Twins Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Minnesota Twins top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Minnesota Twins Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

https://www.thedynastydugout.com/p/minnesota-twins-top-prospects-2025

MLB Sleeper: David Festa, RHP, 25, 6’6”/185

Most seemed quick to write off Festa after his first two MLB starts, which typically happens when a prospect comes and does not perform right away. He went back down to Triple-A and quickly returned to the majors, where he was rather dominant. After allowing 12 earned runs in his first two MLB starts, it took him eight starts upon returning to reach 12 earned runs.

Finishing the final two months with the Twins, Festa posted a 3.81 ERA, with a 3.15 FIP across 54.1 innings. He struck out 30 percent of batters, and walked less than 10 percent. The walk totals are still slightly higher than you would like to see, but the number will play given how many bats he misses.

Throwing from a six-foot release height, Festa creates above-average IVB that sits anywhere between 18 and 19 inches on average. The pitch does not move much horizontally, but the VAA from the release height allows it to play.

Festa’s changeup and slider both miss bats at impressive clips while getting plenty of swings on pitches out of the zone. The changeup has good carry, but enough vertical separation from the fastball to work, and it has 14 inches of fading action. Sitting in the 88-90 mph range, you would like to see a bit more velocity separation, but the results speak for themselves with the pitch. The slider has a strong gyro shape, sitting around 86 mph.

The biggest question is, how many innings will Festa get in 2025? The top three in the Twins rotation seem to be locked in with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack are penciled in the fourth and fifth spots, but it would not be shocking for Festa to earn a spot out of camp.

MLB Breakout: Matt Wallner, OF, 27, 6’4”/220

Wallner split the 2024 season between Triple-A and the Majors in 2024, putting up nearly identical numbers at each level, but was actually better in the Majors. In 558 plate appearances between both, Wallner mashed 32 home runs, 13 of those coming in the majors in 261 MLB plate appearances.

Across those MLB plate appearances, Wallner slashed .259/.372/.523, which, on the surface, looks really good. Under the hood, there are major contact issues, though, as Wallnerr posted a 62 percent overall contact rate and a 69 percent in-zone mark, both around the league worst. The numbers were slightly better in Triple-A, but still not great.

Wallner does have a strong approach, though, as he chased just 26 percent of pitches out of the zone while swinging at 86 percent of pitches over the heart of the zone. That heart-swing rate was ten percentage points higher than MLB average. On pitches over the heart, Wallner made contact on 70 percent of swings but had a 22 percent barrel rate and a 57 percent hard-hit rate.

Speaking of, the overall barrel rate was one of the best marks in the league at 17.5 percent. The average exit velocity of 93 mph and the hard-hit rate of 53 percent are both elite marks. A 90th-percentile exit velocity north of 110 mph caps off the elite power metrics.

In the majors, Wallner pulled 48 percent of fly balls and had a 103.8 mph average exit velocity on that batted ball demographic. He also hits the ball at ideal angles often.

Sure, his hit tool is not great, but Wallner is likely to always have higher BABIPs because he hits the ball at ideal angles and incredibly hard. With a full season of plate appearances, Wallner might hit 35 home runs.

MLB Bust: Jose Miranda, CI, 26, 6’2”/210

Miranda went on quite the heater between late-April and early July last season. In 231 plate appearances over that span, Miranda slashed .354/.394/.571 with eight home runs and 29 extra-base hits. A back injury limited him throughout the rest of the 2024 season, and when he was on the field, the results were not good.

Currently, Miranda is still being drafted between picks 300 and 400, which is late, but still a pick where you would likely plan to start him. The Twins brought in Ty France, who they have openly stated they want as their starter at first base. With Royce Lewis at third, and no clear spot at DH, Miranda could be limited in his opportunities. Of course, injuries could happen, and this Twins team has had plenty of them, but Miranda’s back is also concerning.

Throw in the fact the team plans to give Harrison Bader a ton of run in left field and slide Wallner and Larnach to DH, there is just not a clear path for at-bats for Miranda.

Minnesota Twins Prospect Sleeper: Adrian Bohorquez, RHP, 20, 6’1”/190, A

Bohorquez began the season at the complex in 2024. Still, after dominating he bumped to Single-A where he continued to perform, showing an impressive arsenal and missing bats at a high clip. In 53 innings between both levels, Bohorquez posted a 3.23 ERA with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate but a 12.3 percent walk rate. The strike-throwing was close to average, as he posted a 62 percent strike rate.

Spinning the ball exceptionally well, Bohorquez creates high IVB on his four-seam, which averaged 94-95 mph and topped at 98 mph. Throwing from a 6’2” release height, he averaged nearly 18 inches of IVB and topped nearly 20 inches while also showing 10 inches of arm-side run.

The slider plays with a strong gyro-shape and spin rates near 2700 rpm. It sometimes blends to a cutter, but missed bats at a high clip. Bohorquez then drops a hammer of a curveball on hitters, having negative 16 inches of IVB and solid sweeping action. The pitch sits in the upper 70s with spin rates of 2900 rpm on average.

Bohorquez did work on his changeup development in 2024, and while it is firm, sitting at 90 mph, it shows solid traits. He used the pitch only to lefties, but it is a nice platoon-neutralizing offering.

Strike-throwing will be the biggest question with Bohorquez’s profile. Considering he won’t turn 20 until after Spring Training starts, Bohorquez has an advanced arsenal and has the upside of being an SP3-4 right now if all clicks.

Minnesota Twins Prospect Breakout: Rayne Doncon, 3B/SS, 21, 6’1”/176, A+

Doncon originally signed with the Dodgers and generated a ton of hype throughout his young career before being traded to Minnesota as part of the Noah Miller deal. Spending the majority of 2024 in High-A as a 20-year-old, Doncon showed significant strides at the plate. In 407 plate appearances, Doncon slashed .254/.342/.431 with 11 home runs and 38 extra-base hits.

His contact steadily improved throughout 2024, and he wound up with an above-average 74 percent overall contact rate with an in-zone mark near 85 percent. There are times when Doncon can get aggressive, but he showed major improvements throughout 2024 and wound up with a much better-than-average 26 percent chase rate.

The power is there as well. Doncon posted a 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, which is better than the MLB average. Having ideal launch angles, Doncon hit the ball in the air 65 percent of the time and ran strong barrel rates. He has a heavy pull-side approach and can sometimes get beaten on the outer half, which will be something to watch as he moves up and faces better pitching.

Doncon runs well and shows good instincts in the field. He likely plays third base long-term, but has been solid at shortstop. The bat could be sneaky, leading to a breakout in 2025.