Miami Marlins Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Miami Marlins top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Miami Marlins Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

MLB Sleeper: Connor Norby, 3B, 24, 5’10”/180

Norby is a player that I have always been a bit lower on from his prospect days, but there was a legitimate jump in 2024. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, Norby hit 17 home runs and slashed .293/.382/.496. He spent time with the Orioles, but then was traded to Miami. Between both teams in the Majors, Norby slashed .236/.294/.438 with nine home runs.

Seeing his underlying metrics take a step forward in the Majors, Norby saw his 90th percentile exit velocity jump 1.5 mph, close to MLB average, to 103.3 mph. Norby improved his launch angles and had an elite 47 percent sweet spot rate. He also learned to more fly balls as the year went on and ran a 96.5 mph average exit velocity on pulled fly balls in the Majors.

Norby does have below-average contact skills, which is kind of the opposite of who he was coming into pro ball. But his 73.5 percent in-zone contact rate against MLB pitching will have to improve. Norby gets super aggressive on pitches over the heart of the plate, which allows him to do damage early.

This breakout pick is questionable. But Norby has full run as the Marlins’ third baseman, and it would not shock me if he wound up a 20 home runs, 10 stolen base type, which has plenty of value.

MLB Breakout: Jesús Sánchez, OF, 27, 6’3”/222

It feels like we have waited forever for the Sánchez breakout to happen, but he is still only 27 years old and it seems primed to happen in 2025. Last season, Sánchez mashed 18 home runs in 537 plate appearances while also stealing a surprising 16 bases. The slash of .252/.313/.417 leaves a little to be desired, but Sánchez showed some improvements under the hood.

The contact rates are firmly below average, as Sanchez posted a 78 percent in-zone mark with a 69 percent overall rate. Sanchez also saw a rather large increase in chase rate last season, but considering it came with an eight percentage point jump in heart-swing rate and a five percentage point increase in zone-swing rate. Those are positive trends.

The power is solid as his 92.5 mph average exit velocity was 93rd percentile for MLB hitters. He paired it with a 51.3 percent hard-hit rate and a 12 percent barrel rate. The exit velocity on line drives and fly balls of 96 and 98 mph stand out and he cleared 100 mph average on pulled fly balls.

If Sánchez continues to run, he could be25-home-runrun threat that steals ten or more bases, and that is extremely valuable.

MLB Bust: Edward Cabrera, RHP, 26, 6’5”/217

Every season, Cabrera teases up with his talent, but ultimately can’t get his control under control, and it just causes issues. Injuries have prevented Cabrera from throwing more than 100 innings in his Major League career. A 4.95 ERA last season included a strong finish in September, but Cabrera also walked 12 percent of batters.

The fastball sits 96-97 mph, but the shape is rather generic, and it gets hit hard. It’s 7.8 percent swinging strike rate and 50 percent ideal contact rate(Pitcher List), are both are among the worst for qualified starting pitchers.

Cabrera does lead with a changeup, which has minimal separation from the fastball, sitting 93 mph, but it does miss bats and limits hard-contact. His curveball is also a solid offering, but has been prone to being hit hard at times. He may be best suited to curb his four-seam and throw his sinker more.

The main issue is strike-throwing. Cabrera’s fastball strike rate was 10th percentile for all starting pitchers. His 13.3 percent career walk rate is an issue. He did walk less than ten percent of hitters in September is worth watching. I still see Cabrera fitting best in the bullpen.

Miami Marlins Prospect Sleeper: Keyner Benitez, LHP, 18, 6’1”/165, A

Benitez began the season as a 17-year-old who was pitching at the complex. He jumped to Single-A just days after his 18th birthday and pitched extremely well. Pitching 69.2 innings, Benitez posted a 2.71 ERA with 77 strikeouts to 28 walks. Listed at 6’1”/165 lb, Benitez seems to have added some weight, having a strong lower half.

The lefty gets a ton of east-west movement on his pitches and has shown five pitches. The sinker and four-seam sit around 93 mph but have been as high as 95 mph. Both pitches get a similar amount of IVB, nearly 15 inches from a 5’8” release height. Benitez gets a big extension, nearly seven feet, which allows his entire arsenal to play up.

The changeup was Benitez’s most used secondary, sitting between 82 and 83 mph with heavy fading action. He sells it well, and it tunnels with the sinker before causing it to tumble and fade late. Single-A hitters posted a 53 percent whiff rate against that pitch.

The slider sits in the upper-70s with good sweeping action and depth, and Benitez occasionally mixes in a curveball that sits in the mid-70s with a nice two-plane break.

Right now, the questions surround strike-throwing ability. The strike rate sat slightly north of 60 percent this year, which is below average, but again, this is a young 18-year-old. He misses bats and has a deep arsenal. Benitez should be a major helium prospect in 2025.

Miami Marlins Prospect Breakout: Max Acosta, MI, 22, 5’11”/187, AA

Acosta has quite an interesting path to get to where he is. After signing for $1.65 million back in July 2019, Acosta did not make his professional debut until June 2021 at the complex due to the pandemic. He also had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, which led to some struggles in 2022.

Spending the entire season as a 21-year-old in Double-A, Acosta has not wowed but has been pretty solid. The surface numbers were pretty solid as he posted a .288/.353/.425 slash with eight home runs and 26 stolen bases.

Acosta has put up very strong contact rates throughout the year, with a mark of north of 80 percent. The plate discipline improved in 2024 as well, as Acosta chased just 24 percent of pitches out of the zone.

I still see some untapped power here as Acosta added significant exit velocity in 2024 and improved his launch angles. Acosta has also stolen 25 bases in two straight seasons. Acosta is highly underrated and a very solid bat.