Live From the Florida State League: Tampa Tarpons and Clearwater Threshers

After multiple attempts and lots of rain in Tampa, I finally got to see some Yankees and Phillies prospects at the Single-A level at the beautiful George Steinbrenner Stadium. If you ever get to go, do it. Even though I know it is built with Spring Training in mind, it is one of the more impressive Minor League and Spring Training facilities out there.

While the pitching was sub-par, there were some good bats in the lineup. Let’s talk about them.

Yankees and Phillies Single-A Breakdown

Starlyn Caba, SS, PHI, 18, A

Caba made his single-A debut and did not seem phased. In his first trip to the plate, he sprayed a single to the opposite field, hitting it where it was pitched on the outer half of the plate. After reaching first, Caba proceeded to steal second and third base on subsequent pitches.

In the complex, Caba slashed an inspiring .254/.427/.335 with just two home runs, but the contact skills are much better than his batting average suggests. Some have asked about the long-term power outlook, and it is a fair ask given the fact he has just two home runs in 390 career plate appearances. Considering he is still 18 years old, I think there is a chance he will continue to grow, and I am pretty confident he is bigger than his list, 5’9”/160 already.

I think you hope he can develop into a ten home run bat long term to pair with strong contact skills, plus or better speed, and one of the best gloves in the minors. Caba is good and definitely deserves the buzz he has gotten. He probably plays better in real life than fantasy, but that does not mean he can’t be an intriguing dynasty prospect to roster.

George Lombard Jr., SS, NYY, 19, A

After a relatively slow start to the season, Lombard has picked things up. Still rather young, just turning 19, Lombard has an impressive frame that you could argue still has some projection on it. The former first-round pick is smooth in the field and has a solid arm.

At the plate, Lombard sits deep in the box and has a narrow stance before utilizing a small leg kick and getting pretty wide, creating strong hand-to-hip separation. The swing is smooth and fluid, with little wasted movement. Lombard does not expand the zone often, having one of the better chase rates in Single-A.

The underlying metrics have steadily improved all season. Over the last month, Lombard has a 91 mph average exit velocity with a 74 percent contact rate, which is up significantly. A lot of it has to do with being more aggressive, as his swing rate is up over eight percentage points in the last month. It has come with more chase, but still a respectable number.

Lombard has the frame and power upside, and if he makes enough contact, he could be a really intriguing player.

Roderick Arias, MI, NYY, 19, A

Arias's career has been a roller coaster to this point. After signing a $4 million bonus in the 2022 international class, he struggled mightily in the DSL as a 17-year-old. Then, last season on the complex, Arias looked the part despite missing time with injuries, but this season has shown struggles in Single-A. He has a slash of .224/.325/.360 with six home runs and 26 stolen bases.

Arias has seen his strikeout rate trend downward, but he is still showing a strong feel to walk. The contact rate has trended upward, and Arias actually chases at a better-than-average clip. His contact rate prior to June 24th was 58.5 percent, but since then, that number has jumped north of 71 percent.

I do think there is more power in the profile than we have seen. Arias gets deep in the box and uses a big leg kick to help generate loft in his natural uppercut swing. There is plenty of power upside here, and Arias could continue to steal bases even as he ages.

The stock is way down on him in dynasty, but I might consider buying low, depending on the cost.

Tjayy Walton, OF, PHI, 19, A

Walton is a fun player and an incredible athlete. Shoutout to Nate Handy for pounding the table on him long before anyone else I saw. The 2023 fourth-rounder signed a $500k bonus out of IMG Academy but has a very limited pro track record. He has missed time with injury and has just 32 career pro games under his belt.

Listed at 6’1”/225, I would argue that Walton is taller and he is extremely athletic. He looks like he could play wide receiver on a football team. He is aggressive and does not walk often but it is not because he expands the zone. Walton has a 25 percent chase rate which is actually much better than average and the contact rates are respectable. I actually love to see how high is zone swing percentage is at 76.5 percent.

Walton showed good pitch recognition in the game and picked his spots well. This profile might take a little longer to click, but when it does, Walton could be a 20/20 type threat who gets on base at a respectable clip. Good buy in dynasty.

Raylin Heredia, OF, PHI, 20, A

Heredia was the best player on the field, but I know it was likely just a one-game thing. He homered in the first before adding an opposite-field triple in his next at-bat. The barrel control on the triple was probably more impressive than the home run.

Having plenty of power potential on a good frame, there are major issues with the approach and contact. Heredia currently has a 34.3 percent strikeout rate which is definitely supported by a 65 percent overall contact rate. He expands the zone often, having a 33 percent chase rate.

Heredia is nothing more than a deep league spec add, but he did show the kind of potential in the profile in Wednesday’s game.

Devin Saltiban, 2B, PHI, 19, A

Saltiban is a smaller-framed second baseman who is actually quite strong. He moves well and showed a strong eye at the plate. He rarely expands the zone, having a 22 percent chase rate, and that was on full display on Wednesday. I thought he had one of the better pitch recognitions among hitters. He has ran above-average contact rates this year as well.

Despite having 11 home runs this year, Saltiban does not hit the ball overly hard, but makes the most of his profile, running one of the better barrel rates in the Florida State League. Among hitters with 100 batted balls, Saltiban’s 10 percent barrel rate ranks fifth in his league.

He pulls the ball with ease and hits plenty of healthy fly balls, leaving the yard at a respectable rate. If Saltiban were to grow even an inch or two, I would feel a little better about the profile, but he does show an interesting skillset.

Dylan Jasso, 1B, NYY, 21, A

Jasso(pronounced ha-so), has the look about him. He has a massive frame that is much bigger than his listed 6’1”. An undrafted free agent, out of New Mexico Junior College, Jasso was a solid grab for the Yankees. He has not wow’d, having a .237/.325/.401 slash, but there were some things I liked in the profile.

Given the larger frame, Jasso actually has respectable contact rates and does not chase often. The strikeout rate is a little inflated because he works deeper into counts, not swinging often. He lifts the ball with ease and hits plenty of line drives and fly balls.

Jasso is not a player to rush out to add, but was interesting.

Nikau Pouaka-Grego, INF, PHI, 19, A

Pouaka-Grego is a player you will find getting a ton of buzz on social media. He is small, listed at 5’9”, but he definitely is a few inches shorter. Having a smooth left-handed swing, he can go through stretches where he makes plenty of contact. This year though, Grego has closer to average contact rates at 81 percent in-zone and 72 percent overall. The chase rates are right at league average as well.

During the game, he actually collected the hardest-hit ball of his career at 103.8 mph. There is not a ton of speed in the profile either. I don’t see a ton of appeal for fantasy.

Caleb Durbin, 2B, NYY, 24, A(Rehab)

An undersized 14th-round pick by the Braves seemed like an improbable major leaguer at the time, but Durbin now sits on the cusp of a call-up with the Yankees. After a very strong 2023 and start to 2024 in Triple-A, Durbin went down with a right-hand injury in late May and was just returning for his rehab appearance.

In Triple-A, Durbin has three home runs and 20 stolen bases to pair with a .299/.413/.458 slash. Walking more than he has struck out in each of the last two seasons is no surprise, considering his elite contact rates, checking in at 84 percent overall and 87 percent in-zone. Both of those numbers are near the top of Triple-A. Durbin also rarely chases out of the zone, checking in with a chase rate of 25.7 percent.

The power is not quite there as Durbin has just an 84 mph average exit velocity and a 101 mph 90th percentile. His three percent barrel rate is also quite low, but there is still a lot to like in his profile.