Kansas City Royals Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Kansas City Royals top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Kansas City Royals Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: MJ Melendez, OF, 26, 6’1”/190

Melendez feels like he has been around forever at this point and his career has certainly not gone as many hoped it would. But Melendez just turned 26 this offseason and has put in work to make some swing adjustments. There are traits to like with Melendez, which could lead to a much improved 2025 season.

In 2024, Melendez put up a putrid slash of .206/.273/.400. He hit 17 home runs and had just 44 runs and RBI a piece. Melendez did miss time with an ankle injury and wound up with just 451 plate appearances.

The good in the profile is that Melendez hits the ball hard. His 91.1 average exit velocity, 45 percent hard-hit rate, and 105.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity are all strong marks. Melendez’s 98 mph average exit velocity on fly balls is highly impressive, and on pulled fly balls, they had a 95.5 mph average exit velocity. It also helps that Melendez pulls nearly 50 percent of his fly balls.

The bad would definitely be Melendez’s contact skills. Though the numbers were improved, Melendez still had a 70.5 percent overall contact rate and a 76 percent in-zone mark. The good news is the in-zone contact rate was over a three percentage point improvement, and the overall contact was a five percent jump.

The approach is good. Melendez has a better-than-average chase rate at 28 percent, and he swung at pitches in the zone 11 percent more often than league average. The heart-swing rate for Melendez of 86 percent is a near-elite mark.

The biggest question is, will Melendez’s swing change pay dividends? He is much more squared in the box, and his hands are much higher. The leg kick is much less profound, and he is much more balanced in the box. Let’s see if the results come.

MLB Breakout: Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, 27, 6’4”/245

Breakout may be a loose term here as Pasquanitino has been a solid player for years now, but is he ready to take the next step? In 2024, Pasquantino had 554 plate appearances and slashed .262/.315/.446 with 19 home runs and 97 RBI in 554 plate appearances. He missed the final month of the season due to having thumb surgery but returned for the playoffs.

Pasquantino has elite skill traits for the first base position, starting with impressive contact. His overall contact rate north of 85 percent was 96th percentile for all hitters and the zone-contact rate of 92 percent falls in a similar elite bucket. The approach is closer to average, but given how good the contact skills are, it doesn’t matter.

The power is also there and Pasquantino’s quality of contact is quite good. His average exit velocity of 91 mph is strong, but his 96 mph exit velocity on pulled fly balls stands out, especially when he pulls 44 percent of fly balls.

Given the hard-hit numbers, plus how often Pasquantino squares up the ball, his 7 percent barrel rate is quite low. The sweet spot rate is below average, but there is not a ground ball issue. Tightening his spray angle will go a long way! I could see Pasquantino having 25-28 home runs in 2025.

MLB Bust: Maikel Garcia, 3B, 25, 6’0”/180

Frankly, this pick could go either way. I have long been known as a Garcia hater by many for how low I have ranked him over the years. I also acknowledge that the stolen bases are highly valuable to fantasy managers and Garcia has a respectable glove for real life purposes.

Last season Garcia slashed .231/.281/.332 with seven home runs and 37 stolen bases. His 69 wRC+ was the worst among all qualified hitters. The interesting thing is, Garcia hits the ball hard, having a 90.4 mph average exit velocity, but his 3.7 percent barrel rate was among the worst in the league due to launch angles and a 50 percent ground ball rate. The contact skills and approach are also rather good.

Garcia hit four home runs in the first three weeks of the 2024 season and from there forward, he hit just three and had a .326 slugging percentage. It is honestly just hard to stay in a lineup when you put up a .614 OPS. Over the last two seasons, only Brice Turang has a lower OPS and Turang and Brenton Doyle had a lower wRC+. Brice Turang won a Platinum Glove in 2024 and Doyle won a Gold Glove.

It is worth noting that Garcia had elbow surgery to remove a bone spur this offseason. He is slated to be ready for Spring Training, though. While it is possible Garcia could hit, or not hit his way out of a role, but the reality is there is no one to replace him at third base. I also acknowledge that a tweak in the swing could change everything. This pick could go either way.

Kansas City Royals Prospect Sleeper: Felix Arronde, RHP, 21, 6’3”/185, A

Returning to Columbia for a second season, Arronde dominated to a 2.94 ERA across 110.1 innings with 103 strikeouts to 32 walks. Signing in 2021 out of Cuba, Arronde has made major strides as a starter this year, throwing strikes with ease and having a clean delivery.

When I saw Arronde in 2023, his fastball worked 90-91 mph. This year, it gradually ticked up to sitting near 93 mph. The pitch shows solid IVB and plus horizontal movement. He can work the fastball up or down in the zone and generates a ton of ground balls, posting a mark north of 51 percent this year.

Arronde’s splitter is probably his best offering. It ranges from the low-to-mid 80s with late parachutting action. It is a low-spinning offering that missed bats at a high clip against Single-A hitters.

The slider works in the 81-84 mph range but is inconsistent in shape. Sometimes, it plays with tighter breaks; others, it looks more like a slurve with good depth. The stuff is solid, and I am curious about how it will play as he moves up the levels.

Arronde pounds the zone with a 67 percent strike rate and misses bats with an above-average 14 percent swinging strike rate. The progression as an arm was impressive in 2024, and Arronde got better all season. He looks like a potential starter if the stuff continues to play as he moves up levels.

Kansas City Royals Prospect Breakout: Callan Moss, 1B, 21, 6’3”/225, A

This is my favorite kind of story. Moss was an undrafted free agent out of St. Leo College, a Division 2 school in the Sunshine State Conference. Moss posted a strong season there, slashing .360./.473/.634 with nine home runs and 25 extra-base hits. He also walked more than he struck out. Moss then played in the Appalachian League this summer, where he was the league’s MVP while playing with the Danville Otterbots.

In 33 games with Danville, Moss posted an impressive .371/.531/.724 slash with eight home runs and 20 extra-base hits. Not only was the performance good, but so was his underlying data with wood bats. Moss ranked first in the league with an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph. He also topped out in hard-hit rate at a strong 44.8 percent and a gaudy 24.1 percent barrel rate.

Moss stepped right into pro ball and hit. He has shown a good feel for pitch recognition, walking more than he has struck out, a theme his entire career. Moss slashed .339/.488/.452 with two home runs in 22 games in Single-A.

The underlying data was also eye-popping. Moss made contact on 81 percent of pitches he swung at while posting a 90th percentile exit velocity near 106 mph. Topping out at 111 mph shows the big power from someone who just turned 21.

Moss has good plate discipline, running a chase rate below 20 percent. He has a strong frame, standing at 6’3”/225, and he certainly has the physical appearance when you see him. Moss just turned 21 years old, and I think there is some intrigue here with his bat. Keep a close eye on Moss.