Houston Astros Top Prospects To Know

You are reading the free version of the Houston Astros Top Prospects. In this version, you will get the full writeups on the top prospect in the system, the biggest sleeper, and a player I could see breaking out in 2025.

In this edition, you will see what I offer in the full team reports. For every farm system, you will get my top 50 ranked players and detailed reports on the top 30. Each report includes advanced player data, traditional scouting thoughts from live and video looks, plus thoughts from scouts around the league.

Let’s dive in on what you get in the full report!

Glossary:

FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect? This is always going to be more conservative. Handing out ace tags is not something I like to do. So, this is a realistic outcome.

90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?

Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.

Format for report: Name/Position/Age on 2025 Opening Day/Height/Weight/Highest Level

Houston Astros Top Prospect

1. Jacob Melton, OF, 24, 6’2”/208, AAA

After being selected in the second round of the 2022 draft out of Oregon State, Melton enjoyed a successful first full pro season in 2023, hitting 23 home runs and swiping 46 bases between High-A and Double-A. Having an impressive frame, Melton is a strong athlete with a smooth swing from the left side of the plate, creating effortless power when he makes contact. He glides in the outfield and is capable of playing center field.

Melton seemingly regressed in 2024, and the surface numbers did not look as strong. He still stole 30 bases and was caught four times, but he slashed .253/.310/.426 with 15 home runs. While he missed time with an injury, Melton took a step back.

The good news is, under the hood, things still look good. An 88 mph average exit velocity is respectable, but a 106 mph 90th percentile stands out in a big way. He also maxed out at 114 mph, showing the raw power upside.

From a contact perspective, Melton posted an overall mark of around 76 percent and an in-zone rate of nearly 84 percent. He was more aggressive this year and chased pitches out of the zone at a 30 percent mark, but still kept his strikeouts in check.

The changeup gave Melton fits, which is interesting. He had a contact rate of just 54 percent against that pitch type and hit .200 against them. Breaking balls were a similar case, as Melton made contact on just 70 percent of those pitch types. Fastballs, however, Melton handled with ease.

Melton is a plus runner with plus-fielding skills. The power metrics suggest potential above-average home run output, but Melton will need to lift the ball more. His profile is well-rounded, and he is advanced and ready for the Majors. He should spend a large portion of 2025 in the Astros outfield.

FFG: Power/Speed CF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.350/25 HR/25 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

Houston Astros Sleeper Prospect

28. Joseph Sullivan, OF, 22, 5’11”/198, A

Selected in the seventh round of the 2024 MLB Draft out of South Alabama, Sullivan thrived in his pro debut. While Sullivan’s best season was his sophomore year, his junior season in 2024 was strong, and he finished his 38 games with a .266/.442/.531 slash with nine home runs and 14 stolen bases. In the 20-game pro sample, Sullivan had five doubles, eight stolen bases, and a .739 OPS.

Sullivan starts with the bat slightly above his shoulder and tips the barrel toward the sky with a big leg kick. He creates a broad base and transfers his weight well. The barrel stays in the zone for a long time, and Sullivan can get to pitches in all parts of the zone.

The batted ball profile was impressive in his debut as Sullivan made contact on pitches in the zone at a 92 percent clip and 86 percent overall. He rarely expands the zone and has just an eight percent chase rate in the 20-game sample.

From a power perspective, Sullivan hits the ball hard, having a 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity with wood. The issue is launch angles. Sullivan put almost 48 percent of his batted balls on the ground. The good news is he can turn on balls and posted a pull rate north of 53 percent.

Sullivan is one of those hitters who surprised many after the draft, and he certainly stood out to me in my live looks. If his success continues, he could move up the system quickly in 2025.

FFG: High OBP OF

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.350/18 HR/15 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy

Houston Astros 2025 Breakout Prospect

13. Parker Smith, RHP, 22, 6’4”/230, NCAA

Some have referred to Smith as the steal of the 2024 MLB Draft, as the Astros snagged the Rice University product in the fourth round. A three-year starter at Rice, Smith compiled a sub-four ERA across 220 career innings with solid command and stuff.

Smith’s primary pitch is a sinker, but he has a four-seam in the arsenal that could evolve in the Astros system. Living in the 92-93 range but up to 96 mph with heavy arm-side run, registering up to 20 inches. When he does throw the four-seam, it has some carry, as Smith registered fastballs with up to 21 inches of IVB, so that could be interesting to watch.

The changeup plays quite well off the fastball, though it could use more velocity separation. It sits around 87 mph and has a late drop and heavy arm-side fade, routinely near 20 inches.

Smith will throw a couple of slider variations. The first variation has a sweeper registering nearly 20 inches of glove-side movement in the 80-83 mph range. The second variation has three-to-six inches of horizontal movement and is closer to 85 mph.

Having a starter’s frame, Smith has been durable during his college career and pounds the strike zone. There are times when watching him that you would think he would get more whiffs. Then, he started in the AAC Championship against UAB, generating 18 whiffs across six innings. The stuff is there, and Smith could benefit from an off-season working with the Astros’ pitch development.

FFG: SP5

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: 150 IP/3.80 ERA/140 K

Variance: Very High

Buy/Sell: Buy