Houston Astros Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Houston Astros top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Houston Astros Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: Isaac Paredes, 3B, 26, 5’11”/213

It honestly feels like cheating a bit to call Paredes a sleeper here. But with an ADP of 222 on NFBC, it feels like Paredes is a lock to return value, maybe two-fold. We know the narrative, Paredes has perfected hitting pulled-fly balls that worked exceptionally well in Tampa, where the left-field foul pole was 310 feet.

After hitting 31 home runs in 2023, Paredes was pacing for close to that mark again as he hit 16 in the first half of 2024 with the Rays before being traded to the Cubs at the deadline. After the trade, Paredes hit just three home runs in 212 plate appearances with the Cubs. This could be because Wrigley Field has a left-field foul pole of 355 feet. Of the three home runs he hit in a Cubs uniform, just one was at home, and that was Paredes's only extra-base hit with Chicago.

Now, with the Astros, we know how hitter-friendly it can be for right-handed bats who can pull the ball. The Crawford Boxes in Daikin Park(formerly Minute Maid), is 315 feet. Paredes can feast again!

Paredes is never going to light up the exit velocity charts and will have a lot of blue balls on his savant page. Who cares. Paredes pulls a league-best 65 percent of his fly balls and had an average exit velocity near 92 mph on those batted ball types. The contact is strong, and Paredes has one of the better sweet-spot rates in the game.

Expect a 25-30 home run season for Paredes this year and the next three years he is in Houston. Also, who is to say, he couldn’t add more power? He is entering the prime of his career, turning 26-years-old later this month.

MLB Breakout: Hunter Brown, RHP, 26, 6’2”/220

Brown had a bit of hype entering 2024 and fell flat on his face to begin the season. Few pitchers had a worse April, as Brown had a 9.78 ERA in six starts, while walking 14 batters and allowing five home runs in 23 innings. While things did get slightly better in May, Brown still had an ERA sitting at 7.71 entering his start on May 22. From that date forward, Brown posted a 2.31 ERA backed by a 3.04 FIP. He struck out 25.9 percent of hitters and walked just seven percent.

So, what did Brown change? First, he started using his four-seam less often. Brown allowed three home runs on the four-seam in April alone and the pitch had a .367 batting average against. As he used it less, we saw the sinker usage increase, and the cutter was also used more often.

The fascinating thing is, Brown’s four-seam is a strong pitch metrically. It grades out well on a Stuff+ standpoint and the pitch level data is solid. The sinker does grade out as his best pitch from Eno Sarris’s Stuff+, having a 111 mark. Even if the strikeout rate is down a few ticks given the increased sinker usage, the lower ratios are worth it!

Brown’s changeup and knuckle curve both miss bats at solid rates. The curve shows a ton of depth while sitting the low-80s. The changeup actually changed shape a bit last year and was more efficient down the stretch.

The stuff got better month after month, and his arsenal became more complimentary. From June forward, Brown had a 105 Stuff+ and 107 Pitching+. The results speak for themselves. Brown has a deep arsenal, has shown improved command over the years, and can miss bats. There could be a massive leap in 2025.

MLB Bust: Ronel Blanco, RHP, 31, 6’3”/265

Entering his age 30 season in 2024, Blanco has just 58 career MLB innings under his belt. He broke out in a massive way, tossing 167 innings and being a rock in the Astros rotation, posting a 2.80 ERA while striking out 25 percent of batters.

Blanco was consistent all year, outside of a 4.40 ERA in July. He ended the season on quite a strong note, having a 0.75 ERA in September/October. The underlying data is not bad at all, but does suggest regression is coming. Blanco ran an 84 percent strand rate, which is 12 percent high than league average. And his .220 BABIP allowed was .070 lower than the league average. Both were league-best among qualified starting pitchers.

The ERA estimators have Blanco with a 4.00 xERA, a 4.15 FIP, and a 4.17 SIERA. So even if regression comes, it may not be that bad. There is regression baked into his ADP of 238 on NFBC.

With a Stuff+ grade of 90 and a four-seam fastball that allowed a .497 slugging percentage and a .570 xSLG, I fear regerssion is coming. While the slider, changeup, and curveball all had whiff rates north of 33.3 percent, they all massively outperformed the expected whiff numbers.

If Blanco regresses to a 22 percent strikeout rate type with a walk rate north of 10 percent, and an ERA above four, it is not a complete bust, but it is not really what most are hoping for after the strong 2024 season.

Labeling Blanco a bust is unfair. But I do wonder how much regression is coming.

Houston Astros Prospect Sleeper: Miguel Ullola, RHP, 22, 6’1”/205, AAA

Throwing a career-high 130 innings in 2024, Ullola finished the year in Triple-A after having a solid season in hitter-friendly environments. Signing in 2021 out of the Dominican Republic, Ullola received just a $75k bonus but has shown he can be an MLB arm. While left unprotected this offseason, he could be plucked in the Rule 5 draft.

Ullola has an outlier fastball. He throws it from a 5’7” release height while averaging 94 mph but can ramp it up to 97. It averages north of 20 inches of IVB, which is elite from his release height. The pitch creates strong whiff rates and high spin rates, which helps it play way up past the 94 mph it averages.

An upper-80s slider is arguably Ullola’s best secondary, having carry to it with six inches of glove-side movement. He will also mix in a mid-80s gyro on occasion. The curveball is a heavy depth, 11-5 shape, averaging north of negative 12 inches of IVB while sitting in the lower 80s.

Ullola does not throw his changeup often, though it has improved. It sits around 85 mph with strong carry and over 15 inches of fading action. Ullola sells it well and has good arm speed, but he could utilize it more often against lefties.

Right now, the biggest question is control, though it has improved. Ullola threw strikes at a 62 percent clip in 2024, which is below average but still solid. He misses bats at respectable clips, striking out 171 batters, suitable for a mark north of 30 percent. The walk rate of 14 percent is a major issue, though.

Houston Astros Prospect Breakout: Kevin Alvarez, OF, 17, 6’4”/185

Alvarez is a high-waisted, impressive athlete who has plenty of projection. After moving from Cuba to the Dominican Republic in 2021, Alvarez has displayed an impressive skillset and has steadily improved.

The left-handed swing is picturesque and Alvarez controls the barrel extremely well for someone with long levers. He starts with the barrel just slightly above his shoulders and a wide stance before using a leg kick. He leads with his lower half before exploding the barrel through the zone. The bat speed comes easy for Alvarez.

Alvarez won’t be a huge threat on the base paths, but the power and hit combo is impressive.