Detroit Tigers Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Detroit Tigers top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Detroit Tigers Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: Matt Vierling, OF, 28, 6’3”/205

Vierling is a sneaky deep-league target as he has steadily improved the last several years and has solid underlying traits. Getting a career-high 567 plate appearances in 2024, Vierling mashed 16 home runs and scored 80 runs while slashing .257/.312/.423.

Looking at the underlying data, you might expect a higher batting average and OBP from Vierling. His 87 percent zone-contact rate and 80 percent overall mark are both 80th percentile or better for all hitters. He also chased just 22 percent of pitches out of the zone.

Given the contact skills, plus an above-average line drive and 87th-percentile sprint speed, you would typically see a higher BABIP than .303. The power metrics do not jump off the page, but his 90 mph average exit velocity is above average, as was his 41 percent hard-hit rate.

I would not expect Vierling to have a breakout, but he could put up 15 or more home runs with ten stolen bases, while scoring plenty of runs. His profile is interesting and there should be plenty of runway for plate appearances for Vierling in Detroit.

MLB Breakout: Riley Greene, OF, 24, 6’3”/200

I am probably higher on Greene than most, but health permitting, Greene could ascend to a high-level dynasty asset. A three-year improvement in launch angles led to a career-low 43.6 percent ground ball in 2024, and the results came.

Greene mashed 24 home runs across 584 plate appearances while slashing .262/.348/.479. There has also been a three-year improvement on Greene’s chase rate as he lowered it to a strong 23 percent mark in 2024. The contact skills are inconsistent at times, but Greene’s zone-contact rate was right at the MLB average.

The power is impressive, though. People are quick to dismiss Greene because Comerica Park is quite pitcher-friendly. Greene showed in 2024 his power could transcend the ballpark as he mashed ten home runs at home in 245 plate appearances and 14 on the road in 267. A .265/.336/.490 slash at home and a .258/.359/.468 slash on the road will absolutely play.

Greene’s 96.4 mph average exit velocity on fly balls certainly helps, and he averaged north of 100 mph on pulled fly balls. A 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a 114 mph max show there is 30+ home run power in his bat, no matter where he plays his home games. The barrel rate improvement year-over-year stands out and his 13.4 percent mark in 2024 was 90th percentile for all MLB hitters.

The question marks surround his ability to hit lefties and stay healthy. The power against lefties is pretty equal to his ability against righties. The slash lines are notably different, but a .698 OPS against lefties is not going to put you in a platoon. From an injury standpoint, Greene missed time with a fibula fracture in 2023, and he later had Tommy John Surgery that year. A hamstring injury caused him to miss nearly a month in 2024. Staying on the field will be important for a Riley Greene breakout in 2025.

MLB Bust: Gleyber Torres, 2B, 28, 6’1”/205

Torres’ profile has taken an interesting shift and shape over the last several years. It feels like an eternity ago when he hit 24 home runs as a rookie and then followed it up with 38 in his sophomore season. The pandemic season was not great, and Torres has been highly inconsistent since.

The 2024 season was arguably a career-worst for Torres as he hit just 15 home runs in 665 plate appearances and slashed just .257/.330/.378. Yankee Stadium’s home run factor for right-handed hitters was the third-highest in baseball. Comerica Park ranks 25th.

Torres has seen a three-year drop in barrel rate, down to 6.3 percent in 2024, which ranked in the 32nd percentile. His hard-hit rate was 23rd percentile. Three straight seasons of exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop is a bit concerning.

Conversely, Torres is showing career-best chase rates and running higher OBPs than he ever has. The overall and in-zone contact rates are slightly north of average. Moving to Detroit could hurt the power of a profile like Torres’s. A season close to what he produced in 2024 is possible, so he won’t be a complete bust, but it is hard to imagine a big rebound season.

Detroit Tigers Prospect Sleeper: Jake Miller, LHP, 23, 6’2”/185, AA

Miller flew under the radar most of the year despite putting up awe-inspiring numbers. The former eighth-rounder in the 2022 MLB Draft out of Valparaiso was healthy and jumped from Single-A to Double-A by the season’s end. Across 87.1 innings, Miller posted a 1.85 ERA with 104 strikeouts to 17 walks.

The lefty repeats his delivery well and creates a good bit of deception in his release. Miller hides the ball well, throws strikes at a 69.4 percent clip all year, and has very solid whiff rates.

Miller’s four-seam fastball sits 93 mph with above-average IVB from a 5’10” release height. The horizontal movement varies from pitch to pitch but consistently gets around ten inches of arm-side run. It missed an impressive amount of bats in 2024 and had a CSW north of 50 percent.

He also throws two slider variations, with the sweeper getting 17 inches of horizontal and the shorter slider having more depth and six inches of horizontal movement with more depth. Both variations sit near 80 mph. The changeup has heavy fading action, sitting near 85 mph, giving him a third velocity band. The changeup had a whiff rate north of 50 percent and averaged 13 inches of arm-side fade.

Miller was extremely impressive in watching the pitch in the AFL. Given his pitch ability and arsenal, Miller is a highly underrated arm. There is much to like here, especially if he continues to pitch well at the higher levels.

Detroit Tigers Prosepct Breakout: Owen Hall, RHP, 19, 6’3”/185, HS

The Tigers love this type of arm. Hall is a projectable arm out of Oklahoma who can spin the ball quite well. Selected in the second round of the 2024 draft, the former Vanderbilt commit brings a ton of intruige to the mound.

Hall made major strides during his senior year, seeing his fastball tick up pretty substantially to now touch 98 and sit in the 92-94 mph range. With projection on his frame at 6’3”/185, he could definitely begin to sit in the mid-90s sooner than later.

The slider has two distinct breaking balls, and its plane break is in the low 80s. The curveball is in the mid-70s with incredible depth and sweep. It generates a ton of whiffs and gets plenty of chase out of the zone. Hall will emphasize the changeup development.

This offseason, Hall ramped his fastball up to 99 mph with 2600 rpm of spin and 19 inches of IVB and 16 inches of horizontal movement. The changeup was up to 89 on average with 15 inches of fade. The slider also showed strong traits, sitting in the mid-80s. Hall could be a massive breakout in 2025.