Colorado Rockies Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Colorado Rockies top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Colorado Rockies Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: Thairo Estrada, 2B, 29, 5’10”/185

Estrada put together two strong seasons in 2022 and 2023 with the Giants, hitting 14 home runs each year across 541 and 530 plate appearances, respectively. Between the two seasons, he swiped 44 bases and slashed .266/.319/.408. Then 2024 happened.

Dealing with a hamstring injury in April, and undisclosed injury in June, and a wrist injury in July, it was a completely lost year. Estrada got 381 plate appearances, but he played many of those hurt and wound up slashing .217/.247./343 with nine home runs and two stolen bases.

The interesting thing was that Estrada’s barrel rate and exit velocity data aligned with career norms. The launch angles were more inconsistent as he had just a 30 percent sweet-spot rate, which was down, and his xwOBAcon dropped .040 points.

Estrada’s contact rates remained top of the scale as he posted a 90 percent in-zone contact rate and 81 percent overall mark. If he gets the contact back to 2023 levels of quality, it could be a big year for Estrada, health permitting. Moving to Coors will boost his BABIP, which was .249 last season. The league average BABIP last season was .291, but in Coors it jumped to .330.

It is hard to see Estrada not rebounding, especially if healthy.

MLB Breakout: Jordan Beck, OF, 23, 6’2”/225

Beck made his MLB debut in 2024 and got 184 plate appearances in a Rockies’ uniform. The results were not good as he slashed .188/.245/.276 with three home runs and seven stolen bases. Beck also missed time during the season due to a broken bone in his hand diving for a catch in May.

In Triple-A before his debut and in rehab, Beck slashed .316/.395/.540 with just a 22 percent strikeout rate. The zone contact rate is notably different between Triple-A and the Majors, dropping from 78.5 percent to 71 percent in the Majors. It is also notable to see the drop in sweet spot rate(37 to 31 percent) despite having a consistent average launch angle.

Beck’s contact rates are below average, but he will get the benefit of the doubt in Coors Field which should boost his batting average. The power is there and Beck hits the ball hard in the air. Having a 94.5 mph average exit velocity on line drives and 91 on fly balls will play, but Beck needs to lift the ball more consistently, especially to the pull-side.

Is Sam Hilliard really going to keep Beck off the field in Colorado? I don’t really see it. It could be a big year for Beck once he finds consistent playing time, which should happen early in the year.

MLB Bust: Michael Toglia, 1B, 26, 6’5”/226

Toglia can mash and has for a long time. Here is a video from the 2021 AFL when Toglia hit one of the most majestic moonshot I have seen.

Having consistent playing time in the majors for the first time in his career in 2024, Toglia mashed 25 home runs and stole ten bases while slashing .218/.311/.456. Toglia struck out in 32 percent of plate appearances and posted a 65 percent whiff rate, which was among the league's worst.

Toglia makes up for it a bit with his zone contact of 77.5 percent, which is more respectable but still was five percentage points below the league average. The biggest concerns come with breaking balls as Toglia had just a 45 percent contact rate on that pitch type. Is it possible he gets fed a larger dose of breaking balls as that is a clear deficiency in his profile? I think so.

The contact rate on fastballs was 80 percent, which is strong. Changeups caused issues, though, and while not as bad as breaking balls, Toglia still had a 44 percent whiff rate against. The splits are also weird as Toglia hit 17 home runs on the road and just eight at home while having a higher OPS on the road.

Toglia can mash. A 96 mph average exit velocity on fly balls will more than play, especially when you factor in that Toglia pulls more nearly 50 percent of his fly balls. Will he make enough contact to be a regular? That is my concern and leaves a pretty low floor.

Colorado Rockies Prospect Sleeper: Jared Thomas, OF/1B, 21, 6’2”/190, A

Thomas enjoyed a successful breakout sophomore season at Texas, mashing 16 home runs and swiping 18 bags in 291 plate appearances. He slashed a strong .349/.435/.635 and struck out just 20 percent of the time.

After being thought of as a hit-over-power type, Thomas made major strides in the exit velocity department, adding five mph to his max exit velocity this year. The 90th percentile exit velocity was an above-average 105, and he paired it with a 92.5 mph average exit velocity.

While Thomas hits the ball hard, he also gets it in the air often, 67 percent of the time. Thomas hits the ball hard in all fields, and if he begins to get to the pull side more often, the power could really take off. Considering the .409 xwOBAcon, it is clear the quality of contact was really good with metal.

Thomas chased at a reasonable 28 percent clip. It is a bit higher than we like to see for college hitters, but if the number sticks around there in pro ball, it is a good mark. The biggest progression he will need to make is picking up spin.

The contact profile is good, as Thomas has made contact on over 80 percent of swings. That number even jumped to 86 percent in-zone.

Given the fact that Thomas will play his games in Colorado, the profile only plays up. He made a strong impression in his pro debut, slashing .333/.389/.546 with two home runs in eight games.

Colorado Rockies Prospect Breakout: Alessander De La Cruz, OF, 19, 6’1”/208, DSL

De La Cruz was a DSL prospect I kept my eye on all season as he consistently put up good numbers and never really got much love. In 212 plate appearances, De La Cruz slashed .318/.406/.542 with seven home runs, 24 extra-base hits, and 13 stolen bases.

A former $650k bonus recipient in 2023, De La Cruz repeated the DSL, which might raise some red flags to some, but is not all that uncommon. While being listed at 208 lb, De La Cruz still has plenty of room to fill out his frame. Having long legs, he utilizes a big leg kick and has strong bat speed with a slight upper-cut swing.

The power gains were real this year as De La Cruz posted a 90th percentile exit velocity near 107 mph, which is highly impressive for an 18 year-old. After striking out in 34 percent of plate appearances, he cut that to just 19 percent in 2024 thanks to his 83 percent zone-contact rate and 72 percent overall mark. He posted respectable chase rates as well, but seeing how the approach plays stateside will be more telling.

Given the underlying data, there is a lot to like in De La Cruz’s profile, and he has the chance to really see his stock soar in 2025.