Cincinnati Reds Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Cincinnati Reds top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

MLB Sleeper: Tyler Stephenson, C, 28, 6’4”/225

Stephenson put together a career-best year in 2024, hitting 19 home runs and slashing .258/.338/.444. He was once a hyped-catching prospect and has now taken a massive step forward at the MLB level. Stephenson won’t light up the exit velocity leaderboard but has an elite feel for the barrel and puts up an average exit velocity north of 90 mph.

The contact skills are pretty impressive with Stephenson, as he posted an 87 percent zone-contact rate and a 77 percent overall mark. The plate discipline is some of the best among catchers, as Stephenson chased just 23 percent of pitches out of the zone. He could benefit from more zone swings, especially on pitches over the heart, where he was ten percent below the league average.

Having a 104.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, Stephenson shows above-average power in that regard. When he gets the ball in the air, he thrives, having a 94 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and 97 mph on line drives. The power plays to all fields.

Though most projections have him closer to 15 home runs, it would not be shocking to see Stephenson break his career high of 19 in 2025.

MLB Breakout: Gavin Lux, 2B, 27, 6’2”/190

I may be going out on a limb here, but hear me out. Most people have probably written off Lux at this point, but I will stick my neck out for him. Lux missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL and returned to action in 2024. It is important to remember that oftentimes, players return and aren’t always 100 percent. When Ronald Acuña came back from his first ACL tear, there were plenty of struggles. Lux enters 2025 fully healthy and not under the pressure of playing for a World Series contender.

Lux’s 2024 splits show improvements throughout the season, even with a down September. Out of the All Star break, through the end of August, Lux slahsed .333/.403/.610 with seven home runs and 13 doubles over a 139 plate appearances span. Even with a down September, Lux still posted a .898 OPS with 23 extra-base hits in the second half.

As the season progressed, the bat speed improved, and in September, the bat speed was two mph higher than in June. The barrel rate jumped to ten percentage points in the second half, and he had a 48 percent hard-hit rate. On top of that, no park has been a better home run environment for left-handed hitters than Great American Ballpark. Last year, it had a 141 home run factor for lefties compared to Dodger Stadium’s 116. Over the last three years, GABP’s home run factor for lefties is 15 points higher than the next closest park.

Also, Lux could steal 10 bases for the first time in his career. He stole five last year coming off an ACL tear and is now heading to the team that had the third most stolen base attempts last year and the most over the previous three.

What does a Gavin Lux breakout look like? Eighteen home runs might sound crazy, but it could happen, and throw ten steals on top of it. He could hit .270 with a solid OBP.

MLB Bust: Andrew Abbott, LHP, 25, 6’0”/192

Abbott has put up two solid MLB seasons since joining the big league club, having a 3.78 ERA across 247.1 innings. The surface numbers look good, but Abbott has lived on low BABIPs and high strand rates. In 2024, Abbott ran a .260 BABIP, where the MLB average was .289. His 83 percent strand rate was 11 percentage points higher than MLB average. Those stats typically normalize, which is a large reason why Abbott had a 5.04 FIP and a 4.91 xFIP.

While Abbott does a good job at limiting hard contact, he allows a ton of fly balls and has a major home run problem. His four-seam fastball allowed 14 home runs, and Abbott allowed 25 overall. The funny thing is, it would be easy to blame Great American Ballpark, but Abbott allowed 14 home runs on the road.

While Abbott does have a strong sweeper, it generated just a 29 percent whiff rate. The fastball is not great, and Abbott used it 54 percent of the time. He could probably benefit from a pitch mix change or at least decreased four-seam usage.

Ending his 2024 season with a shoulder injury, Abbott is said to have had a normal offseason, but shoulder injuries and pitchers give me some pause. Also, factor in that the Reds have plenty of arm talent waiting in the wings with Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, and possibly even Chase Burns this year. Abbott may not be a complete bust, but with low strikeout totals, you need him to provide good ratios, and the ERA indicators suggest it could be a higher ERA in 2025.

Cincinnati Reds Prospect Sleeper: Arnaldo Lantigua, OF, 19, 6’2”/200, DSL

Lantigua is a DSL repeater and that will be a deterrent for some, but it is actually something that is becoming more common. After 2023 saw him mash seven home runs in 29 games but struggle with contact, Lantigua returned to the DSL in 2024 and dominated. He hit 11 home runs in 49 games and posted a slash of .301/.430/.575, and walked as often as he struck out.

Considering the rather large frame while having a big leg kick and rather aggressive swing, Lantigua actually has good timing. His hips clear early, but he has shown the ability to wait back, even on breaking balls. The adjustments in the box are good.

Lantigua made contact on nearly 80 percent of pitches he swung at in 2024 with an in-zone rate north of 88 percent. The chase rate improved from 2023 and sat at 16 percent, which led to walking as often as he struck out.

The power really stands out, though, as Lantigua posted a strong 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity. His swing is geared for loft, as he posted an air percentage north of 70 percent with a pull rate of 55 percent. It is no surprise that Lantigua was able to hit some big home runs.

If the contact translates as Lantigua comes stateside, he could vault toward the top of this list.

Cincinnati Reds Prospect Breakout: Tyson Lewis, SS, 19, 6’2”/195, HS

Power, speed, and athleticism? Lewis checks all three boxes while having a strong 6’2”/195 frame. The lefty generates natural loft in his swing and registered exit velocities as high as 108 mph which easily tops his class. Not to mention, he clocked a 6.4-second 60-yard dash, which is plus or better speed.

Lewis is known as one of the harder workers in the class and has undergone a swing change over the last year. He now looks much more natural with his swing. While he already has a great frame, he still has room to fill out and add more power. Among the prep shortstops, he already has some of the best power in that group.

There are some concerns about swing and miss against secondary pitches right now, but the results spoke for themselves. Lewis slashed an impressive .496/.579/.912 with eight home runs and 29 extra-base hits. He stole 31 bases as well. This is a profile I’m very intrigued by.