Chicago Cubs Top Prospects To Know

You are reading the free version of the Chicago Cubs Top Prospects. In this version, you will get the full writeups on the top prospect in the system, the biggest sleeper, and a player I could see breaking out in 2025.

In this edition, you will see what I offer in the full team reports. For every farm system, you will get my top 50 ranked players and detailed reports on the top 30. Each report includes advanced player data, traditional scouting thoughts from live and video looks, plus thoughts from scouts around the league.

Let’s dive in on what you get in the full report!

Glossary:

FFG = Future Fantasy Grade - essentially, what is the likely long-term outcome for the prospect? This is always going to be more conservative. Handing out ace tags is not something I like to do. So, this is a realistic outcome.

90th Peak = If the player hits their best-case outcome, what does it look like?

Variance = How risky is this player’s profile, and how likely are they to hit their likely outcome? Low variance is good; high means more risky.

Format for report: Name/Position/Age on 2025 Opening Day/Height/Weight/Highest Level

Chicago Cubs Top Prospect

1. Matt Shaw, 2B, 23, 5’9”/185, AAA

After a slow start, Shaw steadily improved all year. The Southern League has played weird this year, to say the least, and Shaw put up a 148 wRC+ there. The former first-rounder then jumped to Triple-A and looked even better. Shaw finished the year there with a .298/.395/.534 slash there for a combined .284/.379/.488 slash with 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

Post All-Star break, Shaw slashed an impressive .335/.417/.585 with 11 home runs and 23 extra-base hits. He punched out in just 15 percent of plate appearances over that span. The underlying data also backs the strong performance.

The 90th percentile exit velocity sat just north of 105 mph, and he pairs it with a near 91 mph average exit velocity. The good thing is Shaw does not try to force power and hits line drives to all fields well. He gets the ball in the air often, having an air percentage of 57 percent. The pull percentage is fairly low at 36 percent and could be something Shaw works on to get to more power.

The contact skills are strong, as Shaw made contact on over 75 percent of all swings this year with an in-zone rate near 81 percent. He also exhibits strong plate discipline skills and rarely chases out of the zone, even though that number did rise in Triple-A.

Shaw has a skill set that is as well-rounded as you can find at the plate. No tool is elite, but the sum of the parts is what makes Shaw such a good prospect who could excel in the Majors for a long time.

FFG: Top-10 2B

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .290/.350 OBP/22 HR/20 SB

Variance: Low

Buy/Sell: Buy

Chicago Cubs Sleeper Prospect

15. Cristian Hernandez, SS, 21, 6’1”/175, A+

Hernandez was hyped as one of the top international prospects in the 2021 class, and the Cubs inked him to a $3 million bonus, a club record. After struggling at the complex in 2022, Hernandez went to Single-A Myrtle Beach in 2023, where the struggles continued.

A swing change occurred in the offseason leading into 2024 before Hernandez returned to Myrtle Beach, where he spent most of the season. On the surface, you could argue the 20-year-old struggled again. A .261/.374/.381 slash does not jump off the page, neither does five home runs. But Hernandez stole 44 bases and was caught just eight times.

The underlying data is where Hernandez stands out. We saw the power take a massive leap forward, seeing his 90th percentile exit velocity jump to 105 mph, which was well above MLB average, and Hernandez was just 20 years old. The power did not play in games, mostly due to launch angles, as Hernandez hit 50 percent of batted balls on the ground and did not pull the ball often enough to make an impact.

The approach is solid, too. Hernandez ran a high OBP thanks to a 15 percent walk rate and a chase rate in the low 20 percent range. The contact skills are still below average as Hernandez ran a contact rate below 70 percent, but the approach does help a bit.

Hernandez needs to lift the ball more to get to game power. But, the raw power is there. Already having a 90th percentile exit velocity north of MLB average is huge, but Hernandez’s max exit velocities would rank in the top seven percent of MLB hitters. Will 2025 be the big step forward we want to see? It is highly possible.

FFG: High OBP MI

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .260/.360/20 HR/20 SB

Variance: Very High

Buy/Sell: Buy Low

Chicago Cubs Breakout Prospect

12. Yahil Melendez, SS, 19, 6'3"/165, CPX

Melendez is one of the more underrated hitting prospects in this system that is chock-full of international talent. After being selected in the seventh round of the 2023 MLB draft out of Puerto Rico, Melendez spent the 2024 season at the complex as an 18 year-old. There he slashed .268/.394/.425 with three home runs and 11 stolen bases.

Having a taller, 6’3” build for a shortstop, Melendez is extremely athletic and has a swing that does not get long like most hitters his size. He makes exceptional contact, having an in-zone contact rate of 80 percent and rarely expands the zone, having a chase rate of 22 percent. While he did strike out in 28 percent of plate appearances, if Melendez begins to be more aggressive, he will thrive.

The quality of contact is good as Melendez posted a 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and posted an air rate of 63 percent. He gets to the pull side often, having a pull percentage north of 50 percent.

Given the frame, young age, and athleticism, Melendez could really thrive in full-season ball in 2025.

FFG: Toolsy MI

90th Percentile Peak Outcome: .270/.350 OBP/25 HR/10 SB

Variance: High

Buy/Sell: Buy