Chicago Cubs Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the updated Chicago Cubs top prospect list, updated with new international prospects:

Chicago Cubs Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: Justin Steele, LHP, 29, 6’2”/205

Steele is one of the more underappreciated pitchers in MLB. While he is not flashy, he performs year-over-year. A hamstring injury kept him out for the first month of the 2024 season and elbow soreness caused him to miss some starts to end the year. The positives are Steele’s imaging on his elbow was all clean and he made his last two starts of the 2024 season.

When on the mound, Steele was as consistent as they come. In 134.2 innings, he posted a 3.07 ERA with a 24.3 percent strikeout rate. This followed a 2023 season where he posted a 3.06 ERA. Over the last three seasons, Steele has a combined 3.10 ERA with a 3.14 FIP.

While Steele throws predominantly just a four-seam and slider, we did see him drop the usage on those two pitches from 97 percent in 2023 to 89 percent in 2024. If Steele’s fastball sits 92 mph and he uses it nearly 60 percent of the time, then how does it work?

It starts with location. You could argue Steele’s zone percentage of 61 percent on the four-seam fastball is too high, it ranked 98th percentile among starting pitchers. He pounds the strike zone and has late movement which is highly deceptive to hitters.

There are no traits on the four-seam that jump off the page, but the way Steele spins the fastball is unique. Steele has natural supination bias, which allows it to have a unique movement profile for a four-seam. It almost appears to be a cutter at times, but it is more of a “cut-ride” movement profile.

Naturally, Steele spins his slider exceptionally well, having near-elite spin rates and 13 inches of sweep on average. Steele is one of the best weak-contact inducers in the game. His 4.2 percent barrel rate allowed last year was one of the best marks among all pitchers.

Injury concerns have kept the cost low on Steele, but he seems to be in the clear at this point, making his final two starts of 2024. You can expect very strong ratios with good strikeout numbers from Steele, and he is likely to return good value compared to what his actual draft price is in fantasy.

MLB Breakout: Matt Shaw, 3B, 23, 5’9”/185

After a slow start to 2024, Shaw steadily improved all year. The Southern League has played weird this year, to say the least, and Shaw put up a 148 wRC+ there. The former first-rounder then jumped to Triple-A and looked even better. Shaw finished the year there with a .298/.395/.534 slash there for a combined .284/.379/.488 slash with 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases.

Post All-Star break, Shaw slashed an impressive .335/.417/.585 with 11 home runs and 23 extra-base hits. He punched out in just 15 percent of plate appearances over that span. The underlying data also backs the strong performance.

The 90th percentile exit velocity sat just north of 105 mph, and he pairs it with a near 91 mph average exit velocity. The good thing is Shaw does not try to force power and hits line drives to all fields well. He gets the ball in the air often, having an air percentage of 57 percent. The pull percentage is fairly low at 36 percent and could be something Shaw works on to get to more power.

The contact skills are strong, as Shaw made contact on over 75 percent of all swings this year with an in-zone rate near 81 percent. He also exhibits strong plate discipline skills and rarely chases out of the zone, even though that number did rise in Triple-A.

Shaw has a skill set that is as well-rounded as you can find at the plate. No tool is elite, but the sum of the parts is what makes Shaw such a good prospect who could excel in the Majors for a long time. He is slated to be the Cubs’ Opening Day third baseman and honestly, it would not be shocking if he won Rookie of the Year for the National League and has a 20 home run/20 stolen base season.

MLB Bust: Nico Hoerner, 2B, 27, 6’1”/200

This prediction is not about performance at all, strictly injury related. Hoerner just resumed throwing and taking infield on February 5. He had flexor tendon surgery on October 11, 2024. This surgery is much more common with pitchers, and it obviously takes pitchers a lot longer to get back to full strength. While the exact return date is still unknown, it is possible that Hoerner could miss the first month of the 2024 season.

Even upon return, he could affect Hoerner’s performance initially in 2025. Hoerner already has some of the worst quality of contact metrics in the league, and if he is not 100 percent for a month or two, then what does the output look like?

Where Hoerner thrives is hitting the ball at ideal launch angles and making contact at the best rates in baseball. For the last three seasons, Hoerner has made contact on swings in the zone at a 93 percent clip, and the overall contact rate is right there with it. A lot of Hoerner’s fantasy value also comes from his speed and stolen base ability.

Let’s say Hoerner misses a month of the season. Maybe he comes back earlier, maybe later. Then, it may take him a month to get back to full strength. We might be looking at closer to 4 to 5 home runs with a potential for fewer stolen bases.

This could look completely dumb if Hoerner gets reps in Spring Training and looks fine. Regardless, Hoerner will not be a complete bust by any means, but we could see a slight decline in performance for the first half as he builds back-up strength.

Chicago Cubs Prospect Sleeper: Erian Rodriguez, RHP, 22, 6'3"/190, A+

Rodriguez is an interesting arm that has not generated much buzz yet. A former 13th-rounder in 2021, it has been a slower progression and build up, but Rodriguez threw 87 innings in 2024 split pretty equally between Single-A and High-A. Over those innings, he posted a 3.41 ERA with a 21 percent strikeout rate and walked ten percent of hitters.

As the season went on, Rodriguez got better. After the All-Star break, Rodriguez made seven starts and tossed 28 innings with a 2.25 ERA. He struck out just 20 batters over that span but showed really good stuff. For the year, Rodriguez had a 14.4 percent swinging strike rate, which suggests he could see the strikeout rate tick up, and he paired it with a near 30 percent CSW.

The fastball sits in the mid-90s, routinely in the 94-96 range, but Rodriguez has shown the ability to get near triple-digits. It has good horizontal movement, and Rodriguez routinely locates well in all parts of the zone. The changeup plays quite well off the movement pattern of the fastball, sitting near 88 mph with late tumble and fading action. Rodriguez dumps in a breaking ball near 86 mph with nice depth and sweeping action, getting a ton of whiffs plus chase out of the zone. The shape does vary with the breaker, but it actually benefits Rodriguez in the sense that sometimes it has more depth and sometimes more sweep.

If you are looking for an arm that could be a breakout, Rodriguez is a solid choice. The 6’3” righty still has projection left on his frame and really good stuff. He could be close to taking off.

Chicago Cubs Prospect Breakout: Yahil Melendez, SS, 19, 6'3"/165, CPX

Melendez is one of the more underrated hitting prospects in this system that is chock-full of international talent. After being selected in the seventh round of the 2023 MLB draft out of Puerto Rico, Melendez spent the 2024 season at the complex as an 18 year-old. There he slashed .268/.394/.425 with three home runs and 11 stolen bases.

Having a taller, 6’3” build for a shortstop, Melendez is extremely athletic and has a swing that does not get long like most hitters his size. He makes exceptional contact, having an in-zone contact rate of 80 percent, and rarely expands the zone, having a chase rate of 22 percent. While he did strike out in 28 percent of plate appearances, if Melendez begins to be more aggressive, he will thrive.

The quality of contact is good as Melendez posted a 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and posted an air rate of 63 percent. He gets to the pull side often, having a pull percentage north of 50 percent.

Given the frame, young age, and athleticism, Melendez could really thrive in full-season ball in 2025.