Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/5/2024

Hey all, welcome back! I hope you’re enjoying the holiday week. It’s late and the Brewers are in a tie game against the Dodgers, so I’m not wasting any time on the intro. Let’s review yesterday’s standouts!

Clifford the Big Lefty Bat.

It seems I can’t get enough of Rockies prospects after writing about Yanquiel Fernandez and Warming Bernabel yesterday. Sterlin Thompson (COL) is the flavor of the day this evening after blasting his seventh and eighth home runs of the year yesterday. He’s had a really tough go in Double-A this year, ultimately compiling a .234/.305/.391 line over 302 plate appearances, which is really just a more muted version of last year’s performance at the level. He’s kind of a tweener on both sides of the ball without an obvious defensive home or standout offensive skills outside of the bat-to-ball, and as such he’s lost a lot of the luster he previously had as a prospect. These things tend to crystallize as players move through the minors. He had just scraped onto my off-season top 100, largely because what I saw with my eyes at the AFL really validated the performance but it seems like it may have been a product of the friendly offensive environment. I’m not entirely out, but the likelihood he becomes a staple in fantasy lineups has dwindled since this time last year.

Ryan Clifford (NYM) has actually been far better at Double-A than he was at High-A, which is rare but may be a product of Brooklyn being rather unfriendly to offense. He’s been striking out quite a bit (27.1% at the level) and may just be morphing into an all-or-nothing power and patience profile, which might actually be OK given his defensive prognosis at a corner outfield spot or first base. I’m not his biggest fan, especially in leagues that penalize for strikeouts, but the upside is obvious if his bat-to-ball and swing decisions improve. He had issues with breaking balls and high velocity last year, and I’d obviously prefer if there were just one issue to contend with. He was 4-for-5 with a home run and a double on Thursday.

Don’t Stop Philieving.

The Phillies just don’t stop churning pitching prospects. The most recent to catch my eye is Jean Cabrera (PHI) (h/t to Eric in the DD discord for tipping me off), whose performance has been outstanding but a little under the radar. He’s a 22-year-old righty from Venezuela pitching for High-A Jersey Shore and has compiled a 3.39 ERA over 77.0 innings with a 29.0% K-rate and an 8.0% walk rate. It looks like he’s getting it done primarily with an excellent changeup that features 30 inches of vertical drop and 16 inches of armside run, though he has five distinct pitches including a pair of fastballs (4-seam and sinker). He’s already gone through the Rule 5 process once and the Phillies opted not to protect him, which isn’t unexpected for a player his age still loitering in the low minors, but that signal combined with difficulty repeating his mechanics, spotty command, and a changeup-led arsenal are putting a little cold water on my enthusiasm. He went 6.0 near perfect innings and struck out ten, allowing only a single base runner via walk.

We’re about to have a serious conversation about Brandon Sproat (NYM) as a top-10 pitching prospect in baseball. I’ll admit I did the requisite amount of laughing after the Mets selected him for the second year in a row last summer (nothing gratuitous, just a normal amount of chuckling), but so far it looks like they’ll get the last chortle. He’s been simply outstanding as a professional and currently sits with a 1.71 ERA and 85 strikeouts through 73.2 innings. He hasn’t stumbled even with the promotion from High-A Brooklyn to Double-A Binghamton – in fact, in many ways he’s been better. He’s cut his walk rate from the mid-teens to just 6.7%, his FIP is comparable and his xFIP is a half run better, and he’s throwing more strikes (which is obviously reflected in his walk rate reduction). His fastball, sweeper, changeup arsenal is legit and I’m a huge fan. That’s where the superlatives end and a few “watch-outs” crop up; Sproat has been the beneficiary of a very low .222 BABIP and impossibly high 90%+ strand rate. That’s not to say I don’t think he’s a top-10 pitching prospect, but rather that his results are outpacing his ability at the moment. He went 6.2 innings, struck out nine, and allowed two earned runs on Thursday.

Life Sproat. 

This is the first time all week the table has been a product of my own creation and the results were predictably worse. Thomas Harrington and Trystan Vrieling had encouraging outings but Noah Cameron got hammered for double-digit base knocks. Only Brandon Sproat can save us.

Here’s Saturday’s viewing guide with my recommendations italicized as usual:

• Santiago Suarez (4.50 ERA) for the Charleston RiverDogs (TBR) at 6:05 ET

• Brad Lord (5.79 ERA) for the Rochester Red Wings (WSH) at 6:05 ET

• Jackson Ferris (3.44 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 6:05 ET

• Will Warren (7.05 ERA) for the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (NYY) at 6:05 ET

• Chayce McDermott (3.79 ERA) for the Norfolk Tides (BAL) at 6:35 ET

• Dylan Lesko (5.66 ERA) for the Fort Wayne TinCaps (SDP) at 6:35 ET

• Brock Selvidge (3.95 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 6:45 ET

• Matt Wilkinson (3.42 ERA) for the Lake County Captains (CLE) at 7:00 ET

• Samuel Aldegheri (3.00 ERA) for the Jersey Shore BlueClaws (PHI) at 7:05 ET

• Jacob Misiorowski (3.58 ERA) for the Biloxi Shuckers (MIL) at 7:05 ET

• Noah Schultz (1.93 ERA) for the Birmingham Barons (CHW) at 7:35 ET

• Quinn Mathews (0.00 ERA) for the Springfield Cardinals (STL) at 7:35 ET

• Emiliano Teodo (1.87 ERA) for the Frisco RoughRiders (TEX) at 8:05 ET

• Yilber Diaz (3.27 ERA) for the Reno Aces (ARI) at 9:35 ET