Beck's Minor League Threecap: 7/23/2024

Hello! I’m back after an eight day vacation. They make the All Star Break just a little longer for prolific prospect writers, I’m told. It’s the start of the second half, a misnomer I will not perpetuate as I refuse to let 40% of the season masquerade as a full, even bisection. I’m looking forward to inserting new draftees into the next iteration of my top 100 and for the frenzy of transactions that should come as we approach the trade deadline. For now we’re doing what we always do – recapping minor league standouts. Away we go!

The Sun on My Face, De Vries in My Hair.

The month of July has belonged to Leodalis De Vries (SDP). Before we delve into the actual performance, a brief reminder that De Vries would likely be completing his senior year of high school, if not entering it as an older player for his class, and is currently competing in full-season ball. Whether or not the Padres pushing their top international free agents in this way is beneficial in the long run remains to be seen, but this marks the second consecutive season in which one of their youngsters skips the DSL and complex levels entirely and they’ve handled the challenge with aplomb (at least in Single-A). De Vries has logged 17 hits in 14 July, more than half of which have gone for extra bases (three doubles and six home runs), while walking as often as he’s struck out and ultimately compiling a 1.061 OPS. 

I was really jazzed for Walker Martin (SFG) in last year’s draft. He was an athletic monster who tested off the charts in a number of measurements provided by Loden Sports and then led the nation in home runs as a Colorado prep. Unfortunately Eaton, Colorado, isn’t the greatest competition and evaluating prep hit tools is difficult enough as-is, and we’ve seen his hit tool fall apart over his first few months as a professional. He’s struck out a whopping 67 times in his first 175 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League (38.3%), but what’s bewildering is he’s managing to carry a .411 on-base percentage in spite of nearly forty percent of his plate appearances getting tossed in the bin. The last two weeks have been marginally better from a K-rate perspective – he’s punched out 21 times in 63 plate appearances for a perfect third of the time – but he’s tapped into a lot more slugging with four home runs in that time. I’m staying patient given he’s in his first year and coming off of an injury, but typically a strikeout rate that high does not portend a lot of future success.

Every once in a while we have to throw in a guy that isn’t so hot, and unfortunately this time around it’s Brandon Winokur (MIN). He, like Martin, has had a strikeout problem this year (28.6% in 255 plate appearances) that has only gotten worse over his last six games as he’s gone 3-for-24 with 14 strikeouts in that span. There is no doubt upside should he put it together – he’s posting 90th percentile EVs north of the major league average at just 19 years old – but the bat-to-ball and approach aren’t particularly inspiring. Some of that has to do with the fact that he’s 6-foot-6 and still figuring out how to maneuver his long limbs in such a way that he can cover the entirety of the zone, but he’s also not likely to get any smaller any time soon. There will have to be an adjustment at some point.

Hacken’ Away.

Drue Hackenberg (ATL) just had one of the most impressive outings of the minor league season, full stop. He took on the Pensacola Blue Wahoos on Saturday in his fourth outing since being promoted to Double-A in late June and proceeded to strike out 16 batsmen over 7.0 one-run innings, a figure that represented the highest single-game total for any pitcher this year and a Mississippi Braves franchise record. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff – his fastball regularly sits low-90’s, he employs a low-80’s slider against batters of both handedness, and has a changeup that keeps hitters off-balance – but he managed to register 26 whiffs and a 46% CSW on the evening. He’s thrown strikes at a below-average rate this year (62%) and walked a fair bit of batters (11.1%), and without a better semblance of control it’s hard to project him for an impact role as a starter.

If you’re a regular reader of the Threecap you know basically what there is to know about Jacob Misiorowski (MIL); big, big stuff with big, big command/control red flags. That is until very recently as his last five starts have featured a shocking absence of free passes – just seven in 26.1 innings for a 7% clip, contrasted with his 38% strikeout rate over the same time – that is giving renewed life to his prognosis as a starting pitcher. He’s logged a 64% strike rate during that time, a full seven percentage points higher than his previous 12 outings. Now, transparently, I haven’t sat down and watched all 79 outs to comb for a mix or mechanical change that would explain a sudden jump in strike-throwing, nor do I necessarily think this sample is more indicative of future performance than the 46.1 innings that preceded it, but I am monitoring the situation closely.

Dinner for One. 

We are in an empty dining room today; there is no table. It’ll be back on Thursday once the viewing guide recommendations for Wednesday have completed their slate. Without further ado, here’s what to watch tomorrow with my recommendations italicized:

• Trystan Vrieling (5.21 ERA) for the Somerset Patriots (NYY) at 11:05 ET

• Jhancarlos Lara (5.28 ERA) for the Rome Emperors (ATL) at 12:00 ET

• David Festa (4.03 ERA) for the St. Paul Saints (MIN) at 2:07 ET

• Mick Abel (6.88 ERA) for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs (PHI) at 6:05 ET

• Drew Rasmussen (0.00 ERA) rehabbing with the Durham Bulls (TBR) at 6:35 ET

• Payton Martin (4.47 ERA) for the Great Lakes Loons (LAD) at 7:05 ET

• Robby Snelling (6.14 ERA) for the San Antonio Missions (SDP) at 7:30 ET

• Noble Meyer (4.41 ERA) for the Beloit Sky Carp (MIA) at 7:35 ET