Beck's Minor League Threecap: 6/17/2024

It’s an at-night Threecap, just like I promised. If you’re reading this Tuesday morning, a brief reminder that this is Monday’s article covering Sunday’s games. It’s nearing midnight where I am so I’m cutting the small talk short – let’s dive in!

Boltin’ Hank.

Coby Mayo (BAL) is back and is hammering baseballs. He missed nearly a month with a broken rib sustained while attempting to catch a pop-up in foul territory but has returned and refused to miss a beat. He’s collected six hits in his first four games back from the injury, three of which have left the yard. There’s no need to belabor it – he’s a top 10, if not top 5, prospect in baseball.

I’ve written about a number of Ramirez’s this year – Agustin, Ramon, and Pedro – but I’ve not yet covered Alex Ramírez (NYM). A lot of the industry had him in top 100’s after he made it to High-A as a 19-year-old, but he’s really fizzled out over the last year and a half. He hit a wall last year and ultimately finished with a .221/.310/.317 slash over 520 plate appearances with Brooklyn. It’s been a similar slog so far in 2024, and it’s particularly frustrating to see because he has an abundance of physical tools. He went 1-for-5 with a home run and two strikeouts on Sunday.

Henry Bolte (OAK) hits lightning bolts. His only drawback is that he can wield his huge underlying power with about as much reliability as actual strikes of lightning, and what I mean by that extended metaphor is that he’s whiffing a lot. He’s the proud owner of a 31.9% strikeout rate and somehow simultaneously a .931 OPS, and might be the poster prospect for the oft-whispered ‘what if he figures it all out’. He’s slashing .355/.400/.710 over his last seven games, but the three that preceded this stretch included just one hit and 12 strikeouts in 13 plate appearances. He was 2-for-5 with his 10th home run of the year on Sunday.

The Hitters Proved Rather Abel.

I told you all I’d be focusing more on the guys you know and that it may mean covering poor performances every once in a while. This is one of those instances as Mick Abel (PHI) surrendered five home runs over 5.0 innings on Sunday. He had a real opportunity to seize a rotation spot in 2023 but couldn’t rein in the command/control enough to warrant a look at the big league level, and transparently it’s astonishing he managed a 4.13 ERA with a 13.5% walk rate. He’s phenomenal when he has a feel for locations but he’s yet to prove he can sustain it and his control has actually moved in the wrong direction this year. He’s yet to have an outing in which he did not yield an earned run and opponents have OPS’ed .991 against him over his last seven appearances.

We move on to a guy you probably don’t know who had a much better night in Jaylen Nowlin (MIN). There likely isn’t much to see here outside of the deepest of leagues – his stuff is far from spectacular and his track record is perfectly cromulent – but he’s been solid over his last few outings save for a five-run blowup. He completed 8.0 innings and held Midland scoreless while striking out four on Sunday.

Maybe this starting pitcher thing is going to work for Emiliano Teodo (TEX). The last time I wrote about him I expressed both surprise and excitement about his return to a starter’s role. He’s going relatively deep into games, averaging 21 batters faced and 77 pitches over his last six starts, and has managed to demonstrate enough control to make him fringy. I still believe he’s a bullpen guy long-term given his 61% strike rate (~65% is the minor league average) and the potency of his arsenal in short bursts, but he’s obviously more valuable to Texas if he can start. He went 5.0 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts and just one walk on Sunday.

Quinn Mathews Struck Out Eleven and I Did Not Write About It. 

If the table was just Santiago Suarez and Emiliano Teodo, I’d be doing backflips. It has Mick Abel and Moises Chace, though, so I’m not.

Here’s Tuesday’s viewing guide. I’d usually italicize my recommendation, but you should just watch Jackson Jobe.

• Jackson Jobe (0.00 ERA) for the West Michigan Whitecaps (DET) at 6:35 ET

• Parker Messick (3.48 ERA) for the Lake County Captains (CLE) at 7:05 ET

• Ben Casparius (3.41 ERA) for the OKC Ball Club (LAD) at 7:05 ET

• Ty Madden (7.82 ERA) for the Toledo Mud Hens (DET) at 8:07 ET

• Barrett Kent (4.63 ERA) for the Inland Empire 66ers (LAA) at 9:30 ET