Arizona Fall League Recap: October 8, 2024

Monday was Arizona Fall League Opening Day! I was amped as I think the fall league is one of the best thing each year. We had quite the barn burner of a game to open things up. A scoreless game through eight and a half innings led to a walk-off hit by Max Ferguson in the bottom of the ninth for Mesa to win 1-0.

Beck and I will split the teams each day. With just one game on Monday, Beck is taking Mesa, and I(Chris) have Surprise. Let’s break down the exciting action.

Arizona Fall League Breakdown: 10/8/24

Mesa Solar Sox (Beck)

Tre’ Morgan, 1B/OF, TB, 22

It was hot in the desert yesterday – Google tells me Phoenix reached a max temp of 108 degrees – but the bats were cold. Mesa and Surprise combined for 12 hits and just one run. Morgan tallied one of two extra-base hits for Mesa in a 1-for-4 day. He’s coming off of an unbelievable stint at High-A (.371/.447/.483 in 231 PA) followed by struggles in Double-A (.211/.322/.342 in 91 PA), and Tampa Bay pushing him to the AFL may mean they see him as part of their plans in the back half of 2025.

Max Ferguson, INF/OF, BOS, 25

Ferguson is a logical candidate for the AFL – he played just 28 games during the 2024 regular season after suffering an ankle injury sustained by careening into the outfield wall in April – and he probably wants to put the last year and a half behind him. Since landing in the Red Sox org by way of the Eric Hosmer trade, Ferguson has managed an OPS over .700 at just one stop (.703 over 366 PAs in Greenville). His future at present looks like a fringe big-league utility man who can fill in all over but primarily at second and third. He went 2-for-4 with a single, double, and a walk-off RBI that saved spectators from a seemingly endless contest.

Jake Walkinshaw, RHP, OAK, 28

Walkinshaw was a 36th rounder in 2019 and has stayed in the A’s system for parts of six years (five seasons). At 28 years old, he’s no longer a prospect in the traditional sense, but he had an interesting regular season that lasted just 40.0 innings and culminated in a 3.15 ERA, 19.1% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate. He throws the kitchen sink, including three fastball variations (two-seam at 93-94 mph, four-seam at 94-95 mph, and a cutter at 86-87 mph), a changeup (85-85 mph), and a slider (81-82 mph). The off-speed and breaking stuff appears to be his best offerings, the former for inducing whiff and the latter for stealing strikes, but it’s a relatively milquetoast repertoire, all things considered. He went 3.0 scoreless innings while allowing two hits, a walk, and striking out two.

Shoutout to Nathaniel Stoltz (@stoltzs_words) on Twitter for his exceptional work covering the A’s system – a lot of the detail on Walkinshaw comes from his coverage.

Denzel Clarke, OF, OAK, 24

Clarke was the lone bright spot in Mesa’s lineup on Monday. He finished with two base hits, two stolen bases, and the only run scored across either team. He’s a candidate to be this year’s AFL breakout slash helium guy, flush with physical tools that could shine in a friendly offensive environment. Say what you want about their stinginess and related inability to retain talent, but the A’s have done a nice job with player dev at the big league level of late – Brent Rooker (161 OPS+), Lawrence Butler (131 OPS+), and JJ Bleday (120 OPS+) all enjoyed seasons that were a clear step forward from past performance.

Surprise Saguaros (Chris)

Jac Caglianone, 1B, KC, 21

Highlighting Caglianone is not necessarily a good thing here. We have highlighted the concerns with the high chase rates during his time in Florida. Both the 2023 and 2024 seasons saw him chase at 40 percent clips in college. His pro debut saw him slash just .241/.302/.388 with a 20 percent strikeout rate. He continued to chase at a.. You guessed it.. 40 percent clip. The good news is that Caglianone makes plenty of contact in the zone.

When he connects, he does damage. He has already hit a ball as hard as 114 mph with wood and posted a 90th percentile of 110 mph. The issue is getting to more ideal launch angles and making better decisions.

In his AFL debut, Caglianone swung at four of seven pitches he saw out of the zone and had some pretty ugly swings. He looked lost on several breaking balls that led to strikeouts in his first two at-bats. He also watched some pretty good pitches to hit in the process. The best swing he put on a ball was in his last plate appearance of the night, where he smoked a ground ball up the middle, but shortstop Ben Cowles made a great play on the ball.

Caglianone has a chance to really work on plate discipline in Arizona, especially in a spot where pitching can get pretty dicey at times. He is a player I will be watching closely, especially from a swing decision standpoint.

Creed Willems, C/1B, BAL, 21

The legend of Creed Willems continues in Arizona. He doubled in his first at-bat of the night on a weird play. Willems hit a pop fly to right-center. It seemed like Denzel Clarke was under it, and Willems stopped at first base. Instead, the ball took a massive hop off the wall, and Willems ended up on second base.

In the fifth inning, Willems smoked a hanging breaking ball into the gap that looked like it was going to go for extra bases. Instead, Clarke got his revenge, chased the ball down, and made a great play. He ended the night with just one hit, but it was Surprise’s only extra-base hit.

During the regular season, Willems slashed .243/.322/.462 with 17 home runs and 40 extra-base hits in 98 games.

Leandro Lopez, RHP, TEX, 22

Lopez’s 2024 regular season ended in mid-May after an injury during a start in which he allowed eight earned runs across 2.1 innings against Greensboro(High-A). Before that start, Lopez pitched just 10.2 innings with a 4.22 ERA. He struck out 13 while walking seven batters.

His command has been sub-par his entire career. With a fastball that works in the low-to-mid 90s, Lopez has shown the ability to miss bats up. He has a solid breaking ball, but command has always held him back. 

It did not look like an issue in his first AFL start, though. Lopez tossed three scoreless innings with four strikeouts and zero walks. His strike rate of 60 percent is still lower than we would like to see, but closer to average. 

Josh Stephan, RHP, TEX, 22

Stephan is kind of the polar opposite of Lopez. A command specialist with below-average stuff who has made it work in the minors. Missing time this year, Stephan pitched 58 Double-A innings in which he posted a 4.94 ERA but was hit around and led to a 1.44 WHIP. He walked nearly seven percent of the batters he faced and struck out 22 percent.

With a fastball in the low-90s, Stephan works east-to-west with a lower slot. The slider is a solid pitch with above-average traits and is his true bat-missing pitch. Stephan relies heavily on it, but I would like to see the changeup take a step forward.

Stephan followed Lopez on Monday, tossing three scoreless innings with one walk and three strikeouts. He tossed 31 strikes on 45 pitches at a solid clip. Stephan has some intrigue as a spot starter, but he is likely a multi-inning reliever like the role he served on Monday night.