Arizona Fall League Recap: October 15, 2024

Another slow day in the Arizona Fall League as we had another day with just one game. The good news, though, is that we are back to a three-game slate today!

There's no need to ramble, though; let’s get to the action!

Peoria (Chris)

Ethan Salas, C, SD, 18

Considering how the regular season went for Salas, it has been refreshing to see his performance in the AFL. He collected two doubles on Monday and threw out multiple runners, including Matt McLain and Thomas Saggese. Both pop times came in around 1.9 seconds, which is a pretty impressive mark, especially considering his age. 

The regular season for Salas was quite disappointing, considering the hype coming into the year. He managed just a .206/.288/.311 slash with four home runs in 469 plate appearances. The underlying data was still solid, especially considering that he began the season as a 17-year-old. 

So far in the AFL, Salas is hitting .273 with a .591 slugging percentage which includes a home run and four doubles in 23 trips to the plate. The concern is that he has walked just once and struck out in nearly 40 percent of those plate appearances. 

Again, Salas is one of the youngest players in the AFL in years, he is extremely talented. There is just a long way to go in his development.

David McCabe, CI, ATL, 24

McCabe missed the majority of the 2024 season due to Tommy John Surgery. He is slated to participate in the Arizona Fall League for a second straight year to make up for lost time. Up his return, McCabe put up highly disappointing numbers in 141 plate apperances, slashing .137/.284/.214 with just two home runs and three doubles. We know McCabe has more power that that, based on what he has shown in the past, and the contact skills historically have been good. 

Standing at 6’3”/230 lb, McCabe moves well and is a good athlete for his frame. Braves-hitting prospects will likely always be overlooked due to every MILB park in their system being incredibly pitcher-friendly. Still, McCabe hit 17 home runs in 2023 with 41 extra-base hits.

McCabe has been to the plate just ten times this fall, but has three hits, including two on Monday. McCabe reached based a third time via walk.

Juan Baez, INF, MIL, 19

Baez continues to look like one of the better pure hitters in the fall league while also being one of the youngest ones there. He reached base twice on Monday, including a single and a walk to bring his hit total to eight in 16 trips to the plate. His hit total only trails Colt Emerson for the AFl lead, but Baez has eight less plate appearances.

The impressive contact skills from the regular season have carried over to the AFL. Monday was the first time that he has swung and missed at a pitch in the zone so far. The overall contact rate sits near 88 percent.

Seeing Baez this year in person, I came away impressed by his bat to ball skills and the ability to control the barrel throughout the zone. Being on the smaller side, power likely won’t be a part of Baez game. The good news is, he sprays the ball to all fields well, having an impressive line drive rate.

Glendale (Beck)

Zyhir Hope, OF, LAD, 19

I think Zyhir Hope is my current prospect obsession. We got our hands on his 2024 data, and it’s… unreal. He’s posting a z-con/chase/EV90 profile at 19 years old that strains credulity; if you were to z-score those specific data components it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t rank top ten in the sport, if not better. He got a hold of one off of David Morgan on Monday night and sent it the opposite way over the left field fence for his second of the fall. I neglected to write about him as part of my prospect buys series (there may be more of those coming), but I’m struggling to find a player I recommend more than him at the moment. Should anybody reading be a big-league GM, I’d also recommend against letting the Los Angeles Dodgers plunder your complex.

Tyler Callihan, 2B, CIN, 24

Hope had the only extra-base hit of the night for Glendale, but the rest of the team strung together 13 hits and five stolen bases. Callihan accounted for two of the former and one of the latter in addition to an RBI, bringing his line to .308/.438/.308 through three games in the desert. He’s a former third-rounder and a fair bit older than much of the competition out there, so we should be expecting him to stand out in some regard, though I don’t expect him to hit for much power in the AFL or thereafter. He’s managed 33 home runs over 1,586 career minor league plate appearances.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1B, CIN, 24

CES missed the majority of the season after suffering a broken wrist and ligament damage stemming from a hit-by-pitch on April 27th. He played through it for about a week – largely because initial imaging didn’t pick up on the extent of the injury – and ultimately underwent season-ending surgery in June. He had a productive MLB debut in 2023 that culminated in a .270/.328/.477 line and 13 home runs in 63 games, but started 2024 in a slump that dropped his career OPS+ from 112 to 87 in the span of a few weeks. He’s a natural candidate for the AFL despite being one of just a few players with MLB service time under his belt and he should be expected to perform well if totally healthy. He went 2-for-4 with a walk, an RBI, and a strikeout on Monday, bringing his AFL line to .500/.533/.667 through three games.

Nathan Church, OF, STL, 24

The former 11th-rounder and participant in the MLB Draft League played the entirety of his 2024 in Double-A to little fanfare. He poked nine home runs and swiped 24 bags in 127 games en route to a .268/.332/.373 line, and presently, it looks like he may not do enough damage to garner reliable playing time (or an active roster spot). Scouts peg him as a roughly average athlete and defender, both of which are typically required to be excellent with this kind of profile and ultimately hurt his prognosis. He dropped in a pair of base hits and stole a base in a 2-for-4 night on Monday.

Leonardo Bernal, C, STL, 20

Bernal’s minor league career has been a bit of a mixed bag. He was a standout as an international prospect, but his trajectory has been relatively non-linear; he’s often lauded for his raw power, but has tinkered with his approach such that his in-game power output has dwindled while simultaneously not improving in the contact and chase department enough to carry his profile. Folks who see him in person regularly aren’t quite sold on his defense, so we’re left with a lot of question marks about his future, especially in an organization that employs Willson Contreras through 2027 (club option in 2028) and has a more-than-capable backup in Ivan Herrera. Bernal led Glendale in the hits department with three in five plate appearances and stole a base on Monday.