Arizona Fall League Recap: October 12, 2024

Happy Saturday! The first week of the Arizona Fall League is nearly in the books. Today we get an Andrew Painter start for the first time since March of 2023. I hope you are as excited as I am!

We had a lot of great games on Friday. Beck and I are here to break down everything you need to know.

Arizona Fall League Breakdown: 10/12/24

Mesa (Beck)

Moises Ballesteros, C, CHC, 20

The teams I cover had very few extra-base hits and many, many errors. Mesa dropped their contest against Peoria 6-9, but Ballesteros was one of the lone bright spots. He collected three hits, walked once, and scored a run. He’s had a very strong start to his AFL campaign and is currently slashing .385/.467/.462 with just one strikeout through his first 15 plate appearances. Chicago may have plans for Ballesteros at the big league level early in 2025 after he rounded the year out strong in 68 games at Triple-A.

Niko Kavadas, 1B, LAA, 25

Kavadas is one of the rare players in the desert this year that has accrued service time. It was a small sample (106 PAs), but it was clear he wasn’t quite ready, and he finished with a .183/.283/.333 slash. His prospect status is still intact, though I’m not particularly interested in him for dynasty as a left-handed first baseman with roughly average power for the position but issues with contact and approach that manifested in a 33.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A and 38.7% at the big league level. He tallied the only extra-base hit of the night for Mesa with a double in a 2-for-5 effort.

Max Ferguson, UTL, BOS, 25

Ferguson is back on the sheet after contributing three singles, a walk, and two RBIs on Friday. He’s a decent athlete who has struggled to stay healthy and hasn’t quite yet found his footing as a professional, including a dismal 28-game sample across Double- and Triple-A in 2024. Ultimately, he looks like a fringe 40-man roster guy, but a nice campaign in the AFL paired with a burgeoning player development apparatus in Boston could reignite intrigue in the former fifth-rounder. He struggles with both contact and below-average pop, so a lot would have to break right.

Scottsdale(Beck)

Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF, NYM, 32

Not a lot went right for Scottsdale on Friday. They managed just one run on four hits and committed three errors en route to a 6-1 loss. The most interesting part of this game was that Jeff McNeil partook and had a base knock as he attempts to get right before potentially joining the Mets’ NLCS roster. New York had to petition the league to allow McNeil to participate in the absence of another environment to rehab.

Jett Williams, 2B, NYM, 20

Triples are more exciting than home runs, especially when Jett Williams is rounding the bases. He agreed and supplied one on Friday that left bat at 101.1 mph and marked his second of the AFL through just three games. Williams struggled through injury and had a very disappointing triple-slash over 33 games, though he’s one of the early candidates for AFL MVP with a strong set of opening contests.

Surprise (Beck)

Alejandro Osuna, OF, TEX, 22

Osuna got on the board with his first home run of the AFL with a 444-foot blast that left the bat at 108.8 mph. He added a lineout with a 105.9 mph exit velocity that managed to find Caleb Durbin’s glove in center field. He’s one of the players I’m most excited to see in person – he is hustle personified – and could be a big riser over the off-season. He climbed to Double-A this year while putting together a .292/.362/.507 slash with 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases.

Carter Jensen, C, KC, 21

Chris and I have both written recently that Carter Jensen is underrated and he proved it again on Friday with a 108.0 mph homer and 115.0 (!!!) mph single on Friday night. There’s more juice here than meets the eye and I’d be looking to acquire him before his stock takes off this fall. The watch-outs in his profile are his left/right splits (.628 OPS against lefties in 2024 and .873 against righties) and some passivity, but I really like what I’m seeing on film. Excited to get a look at him in person in just a few weeks.

Salt River (Chris)

Juan Guerrero, OF, COL, 23

Guerrero has a big game for Salt River and tried his best to push the, over the edge but the team ultimately dropped to Surprise 11-10. Guerrero contributed a double and a home run that was smoked 406 feet with a 104.1 mph exit velocity. Recently turning 23 years old, Guerrero split time between High-A and Double-A slashing .304/.343/.395 with six home runs, 30 extra base hits, and a 13.6 percent strikeout rate. 

Guerrero is a good athlete with speed and success on the base paths, swiping 27 bases in 32 tries. Hitting a ball as hard as 120 mph this year shows there is some power upside in the bat, though I do question is that is a misread or not. 

Regardless, Guerrero is a pretty interesting player with an interesting set of tools. He hits the ball on the ground a bit too much, but when he gets on a ball, it travels.

Kala’i Rosario, OF, MIN, 22

Rosario looks like he will be the bat speed king of the fall league in his second year in the desert. The 2023 AFL home run derby champ is back aftera  disappointing 2024 season which saw him play just 69 games and post an uninspiring .238/.329/.428 slash with a 30 percent strikeout rate.

Rosario smoked his second home run in three games, a 105 mph shot that traveled 424 feet. He added a 389 foot fly out that nearly left the yard to dead centerfield. He swung and missed just once on nine swings and did not chase a ball out of the zone which is a major encouragement. 

There is no denying the power upside with Rosario, it is ultimately about the contact skills.

Gabriel Hughes, RHP, COL, 23

Hughes had his season cut short back in 2023, needing Tommy John Surgery after getting off to a strong start to the year. The numbers did not look great on the surface but were largely affected by a couple of blow-up starts, including a 10-earned run spot in his second Double-A start.

Returning to the mound for the first time since 2023, Hughes gave up five earned runs across two innings pitched, which included two big-time home runs. Hughes honestly had no feel for the location and looked like he was throwing batting practice. 

44 of his 48 pitches were either a cutter or four-seam with the cutter sitting at 91 mph and the four-seam at 94 mph. I probably would not read too much into this start, it was just good to see Hughes back on the mound healthy.

Peoria (Chris)

Ethan Salas, C, SD, 18

Salas had another big game on Friday. After hitting a home run on Tuesday, he had a two double performance on Friday. The first drove in two runs on an opposite field shot that one-hopped the wall. The second also went to the to the opposite field to the warning track, nearly caught by Tre’ Morgan, instead it dropped in for an easy two bagger for Salas.

He now has four hits in three games, three of which are extra base hits. It is also worth noting he has struck out in five of 13 plate appearances. Salas is just 18 years old and will be until next June. Many wrote him off after struggles this year, but there is still plenty of talent here. 

Juan Baez, INF, MIL, 19

Baez continues to hit and only trails Colt Emerson for the AFL lead. Friday saw him collect three hits, ending the day just a home run shy of the cycle. It was a dominant showing of his contact ability as Baez hit the ball to all fields well.

Being that Baez is one of the youngest players in the AFL, he has shown impressive contact skills so far. In fact he has not swung and missed at a pitch in the zone and has a near 87 percent overall contact rate. 

Seeing Baez this year in person, I came away impressed by his bat to ball skills and the ability to control the barrel throughout the zone. Being on the smaller side, power likely won’t be a part of Baez game. The good news is, he sprays the ball to all fields well, having an impressive line drive rate.

Adam Maier, RHP, ATL, 22

There has been significant buzz around Maier since he was drafted in the seventh round out of Oregon in 2022, receiving a $1.2 million bonus. After a shortened 2020 season at British Columbia College and the team not playing in 2021, Maier transferred to Oregon. His strong performance in the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2021 had many excited, but sadly, his 2022 season at Oregon ended after just 15.2 innings due to a UCL injury. Maier had the internal brace surgery and did not pitch until 2024.

Missing over a month in June and July, Maier still managed to pitch 83.1 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Upon his return from injury in August, he was significantly better and spent six of the seven starts in High-A. Over that span, Maier tossed 29.2 innings with a 3.34 ERA. 

He made his first AFL start, tossing two innings with two earned runs allowed and three strikeouts. Thirty of his 51 pitches landed for strikes, and Maier generated a strong seven whiffs. While it was not a dominant showing, he did strike out Tre’ Morgan, Xavier Issac, and Niko Kavadas in the first before getting BABIP’d to death in the second.

Landon Harper, RHP, ATL, 23

Maier was not the only Braves pitcher to throw on Friday as righty Landon Harper came in relief and was dominant over three innings of work, striking out six batter and walking one in the scoreless performance. 

Harper had quite a strong performance in relief this year, splitting time between High-A and Double-A with the majority of the season in Missssippi(AA). He posted a 2.43 ERA across 77.2 innings with 64 strikeouts and just 14 walks. While not a super dormant performer, Harper is a bullpen arm to keep an eye on in the Braves system.

Glendale (Chris)

Colson Montgomery, SS/3B, CHW, 22

Montgomery has gotten off to a strong start this fall league as it seems he is back fully healthy. Seeing the ball quite well, Montgomery reached base three times on Friday, including two walks and a single that he scorched at 110.4 mph. On his seven batted balls so far, he has an 87 mph average exit velocity and has made consistent contact while rarely chasing out of the zone. 

Many wrote him off or dropped him down rankings after the regular season. Montgomery dealt with a minor injury during the 2024 season which certainly affected his swing and ability to get to power. While many, including myself, thought Montgomery would spend a large portion of the season in Chicago, he struggled in Triple-A, slashing .214/.329/.381 while seeing his strikeout rate explode. It was very uncharacteristic of the kind of hitter he is. The injury largely played a part in my opinion.

Griff McGarry, RHP, PHI, 25

McGarry has long been known as an electric arm that has trouble throwing strikes. Friday was a good example of the McGarry experience has he walked two across two scoreless innings of work. He generated just one whiff on 14 swings and landed 57 percent of his pitches for strikes.

McGarry mixed a slier and a cutter, and his four-seam fastball averaged around 95 mph. The fastball does have good characteristics, having high IVB and horizontal movement. Considering how McGarry ended the season, I am sure it was relieving to toss two scoreless innings. If he can clean up the strike throwing some, there is a lot of intrigue with McGarry as a bullpen arm.

DJ Gladney, OF, CHW, 23

Gladney is an interesting player that I have liked since I first saw him live in 2023. Built like an NFL wide receiver, Gladney stands at 6’2”/195 has has a ton of athleticism. This year between High-A and Double-A, Gladney slashed .246/.303/.450 with 16 home runs and 38 extra base hits. 

The power is off the charts and that was on display on Friday as he smoked a lineout that traveled 367 feet with a 109.3 mph exit velocity. He has consistently hit the ball hard all fall league and during the regular season he had a 108 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, topping out at 116 mph. 

Gladney is aggressive and has shown plenty of swing-and-miss and chase, but when he connects, he does damage.