Arizona Fall League Recap: October 11, 2024

Another great, full day of AFL action. Another day of strong offense. I(Chris) had high hopes for Kendry Rojas, but that start did not go well. A combined 46 runs were scored between the three games as the offense was strong.

Beck and I have covered everything you need to know about what happened yesterday. Let’s dive in.

Arizona Fall League Breakdown: 10/11/24

Mesa (Beck)

Denzel Clarke, OF, OAK, 24

Clarke is featuring for the second time in our AFL rundown, this time for a modest 3-for-4 night with three singles as Mesa was largely stymied by Salt River. Unfortunately, there’s no statcast data for this game, so it’s hard to get hyped beyond the three base hits with supplementary information like exit velocity and launch angle. He’s trailing just Colt Emerson in hits despite only playing in two games this week.

Xavier Isaac, 1B, TB, 20

Isaac finds himself in a 17-way tie for second place in the home run column after launching his first of the year on Thursday (Kemp Alderman has built a commanding lead with four dingers in three games). Power isn’t the question, though, and I’m much more interested in seeing how his contact rate plays out over the course of the fall. He ended the regular season with a concerning slide down the proverbial contact spectrum, likely due in some part to a wrist injury, but he’s struck out four times through eight plate appearances so far and the pitching he’s seeing isn’t exactly elite.

Scottsdale (Beck)

Termarr Johnson, 2B, PIT, 20

The question for Johnson this fall is rather straightforward: can he improve his ability to make contact on breaking balls. That’s what I’ll be watching for when I’m out there in just a little under three weeks. So far he’s enjoying the desert and has a .500/.600/1.125 line boosted by a Triple on Thursday. Expectations for him are high given the offensive environment, the quality of pitching, and his late-season vignette at Double-A.

Thayron Liranzo, C, DET, 21

Liranzo had one of the best nights of any AFLer on Thursday as he collected a pair of doubles and a home run, drove in three, and scored twice. This year’s crop is chock full of power-over-hit bats (Liranzo, Johnson, Isaac, and so on) but none ended their seasons as scorching hot as him. He played 26 games with West Michigan after coming over in the Jack Flaherty trade and slashed .315/.470/.562 with five home runs and more walks than strikeouts (26/20 K/BB). He has hit tool concerns, certainly, but the difference between him and some of the other young, hulking power hitters (like Lazaro Montes) isn’t as wide as public perception would have you believe.

Bo Davidson, OF, SF, 22

Say what you want about Nate Handy (no really, say whatever you want) but he was the first guy I saw pumping Bo Davidson’s tires. Since then I’ve seen glowing reviews from Baseball America and compelling data-based arguments for him as perhaps the most interesting buy option for dynasty leagues, and truthfully I had intended to write about him in my Prospect Buys series before he gained so much traction. Who knows how much contact he’ll ultimately make as he moves up levels, but the damage he’s capable of doing is really impressive. The AFL should be a good proving ground (to the extent that it can be), and he picked up three singles on Thursday.

Surprise (Beck)

Max Acosta, SS, TEX, 21

Max has been taking it one level at a time. He’s spent each of the last four years in the ACL, the Carolina League, the Sally League, and the Texas League with no overlap and has improved his on-the-field output gradually over that time. He finished the 2024 campaign in Double-A with a .288/.353/.425 line, eight home runs, and 26 stolen bases. I’m not particularly in on him right now, but I’m not totally out either and he has some interesting contact and power markers that could play well in this environment. He finished Thursday’s matchup with Scottsdale with three hits in six at-bats, one of which was a double.

Jac Caglianone, 1B, KC, 21

Known slap hitter Jac Caglianone went 4-for-6 against Scottsdale yesterday. All four hits were singles, which is what we’ve come to expect from a dink-and-dash guy of hit caliber. The best possible outcome for him is that he continues to run sterling chase rates and puts enough balls in play to let his legs really shine.

This is the first time I’ve put a line break in one of my AFL writeups, and it’s to make sure you pick up on the obvious sarcasm in the first paragraph. Jac does top of the scale damage but has some questions about his ability to discern which pitches he can damage, and that’s what we’re keeping an eye on this fall. He’s a hugely enticing option in dynasty leagues and doesn’t need to be perfect in the swing decision department to be productive, so any strides he makes would be a welcome sight.

Jake Cunningham, OF, BAL, 22

Cunningham is the only player in today’s rundown that I was unfamiliar with coming into yesterday’s slate. He was a fifth-rounder in 2023 out of UNC Charlotte who had a nice (but short) post-draft sample before struggling to find his footing for the duration of the 2024 campaign. He split time between Single-A and High-A and the results were almost identical – a .623 OPS with Delmarva and a .630 OPS with Aberdeen – with extremely similar shape. He was billed as a power-over-hit outfielder with intriguing physical tools, but neither the hit nor power have shown up prominently as a professional. He swiped 29 bags in 34 attempts which was a significant step up from his college numbers but seems like the kind of thing you do when you’re a good athlete who is searching for success and not finding it at the dish. He finished Thursday’s contest with four hits, including a home run and four RBIs.

Salt River (Chris)

Gino Groover, 3B, ARI, 22

Groover collected two hits on Thursday to continue his strong AFL start. While he has not been overpowering or hit any towering home runs, he has put a ton of balls in play. Contact has been the best aspect of Groover’s game for a while, but I would like to see him tap into a little more power, especially since he plays third base.

Groover ended the year on a hot note, slashing .281/.363/.502 post All Star break. Over his final 17 games, he mashed seven home runs and four doubles. The underlying exit velocity data was slightly below average, but after missing a significant chunk of the 2024 season, Groover came to the AFL with something to prove. 

Robert Hassell III, OF, WSH, 23

Hassell is an AFL-seasoned vet at this point. The third time is the charm for Hassell, who is now on his third different AFL team, previously playing with Peoria in 2022 and Scottsdale in 2023. His season has gotten off to a good start, and that continued on Thursday as he homered and collected three hits. 

Better know as Bobby Barrels, it was just good to see Hassell get to the pull-side on the home run. He had one of the worst pull rates in the minors last year and goes oppo far too often considering his launch angle distribution. 

Hassell could use a big fall league as he has seen his prospect status take a huge dip since joining the Nationals org in 2022. This season he spent time on the injured list and in 85 games he slashed .241/.319/.328 with five home runs and 15 stolen bases.

Garrett Martin, OF, NYY, 24

Martin is one of my favorite prospects that is not talked about. Before the AFL I wrote this on him:Martin might be the single most underrated player in the fall league. He is so underrated; Fantrax has him on Baltimore, a team that drafted him way back in 2018 and whom he did not sign with.

It was quite a path for Martin to sign with the Yankees, first beginning his collegiate career at McLennan Community College, where he put up 20 home runs in 63 games in 2021. He then transferred to Oklahoma State, where he played sparingly in 2022 before eventually landing at Austin Peay in 2023. There, Martin put up gaudy exit velocities, checking in with a 109.3 90th percentile and a 114 max.

Martin signed with the Yankees as a free agent after the 2023 draft, and injuries have caused him to miss time. This year, in 87 games with High-A Hudson Valley, Martin mashed 12 home runs and had 32 extra-base hits. The slash line of .216/.326/.422 leaves a little to be desired, as Martin struck out 28 percent of the time.

One thing is certain: Martin can mash, having one of the highest 90th-percentile exit velocities in the Yankees organization this year. He could be the fall league home run leader and I would not be shocked.

Well, Martin came to Arizona and is showing out. He reached base three times on Thursday, including a double and a triple. While there is swing and miss, there is big time power upside here.

Jackson Fristoe, RHP, NYY, 23

Fristoe is an interesting pitching prospect that I thought could breakout in 2024. Injuries have riddled the 2022 12th rounders career to this point and after looking healthy to start the 2024 season he pitched just 38 innings before landing on the IL with a shoulder injury. 

He has a high riding fastball that sits in the 95-97 mph range with high spin. The low-90s cutter plays well as a bridge to the slider that he spins well with nice depth. If he can find a fully healthy season, there is some interesting potential here.

In his AFL debut, Fristoe tossed two innings of one-run ball, striking out one. The only damage was in the first inning as Denzel Clarke singled on a ground ball to short and Brooks Brannon doubled on a routine fly ball to right field that was misplayed in the sun. 

More impressively, Fristoe lived in the zone all start. He threw just 19 pitches in two innings of work but landed 17 of those pitches for strikes. 

Peoria (Chris)

Romeo Sanabria, 1B, SD, 22

Sanabria had another strong game in which he collected a single and a double and nearly left the yard with a 385-foot fly out. His eight batted balls so far have an average of 98 mph with a max of 107.4 mph. Sanabria hits the ball at ideal launch angles and has yet to swing and miss at a pitch in the zone so far this fall league.

Sure, we are talking about small samples, but Sanabria can hit. He flew under the radar this year in the minors and now gets to showcase his talent with more eyes on him. Having a smooth swing from the left side, Sanabria has explosive hands, creating easy pop. He hits a ton of line drives, posting a rate north of 26 percent this year with a respectable fly ball rate as well. Sanabria has healthy exit velocities and hits to all fields well.

The 6’3” frame helps generate pop and even though he was drafted as a catcher in 2022, Sanabria now is first base only. There is pressure on the bat there, but Sanabria has a solid combo of hit tool with emerging power.

Kemp Alderman, OF, MIA, 22

Another day, more Alderman home runs. One left the bat at 117 mph, the hardest-hit ball of the AFL and the hardest of Alderman’s pro career. We saw him pop a 118 with metal in college, but 116.8 with wood is highly impressive. The second home run left the bat at 106.2 mph, and Alderman scorched a worm-burning single at 110.2 mph.

The game brought his average exit velocity to 99.7 mph, and while it has been just 11 batted balls, it is still impressive nonetheless. The contact skills are what I am watching most, we knew Alderman had light tower power coming into the AFL. It was more of a question could he cut down his chase and make more contact. So far, so good.

Juan Baez, INF, MIL, 19

Baez reached base in all four trips to the plate on Thursday; two singles, a double, and a fielding error. None were super impressive exit velocities, with two of them both registering 89.2 and his hardest hit ball being 96.2 mph.

Being that Baez is one of the youngest players in the AFL, he has shown impressive contact skills so far. In fact he has not swung and missed at a pitch in the zone and has a near 80 percent overall contact rate. 

Seeing Baez this year in person, I came away impressed by his bat to ball skills and the ability to control the barrel throughout the zone. Being on the smaller side, power likely won’t be a part of Baez game. The good news is, he sprays the ball to all fields well, having an impressive line drive rate.

Glendale (Chris)

Zyhir Hope, OF, LAD, 19

My goodness Zyhir.. Hope mashed a home run that left the bat at 110.6 mph and traveled 470 feet. When you talked about a squared up, barreled ball, this might be the best example I have seen. An 85.5 mph cutter was no problem for Hope in the second innings, who sent the home run over the batter’s eye. 

Hope added two more hard-hit balls: a 103 mph double and a 100 mph groundout. This kind of thing should be shocking. Hope cemented himself as a top 50 prospect before the AFL, having a 90th percentile exit velocity north of 108 mph. He makes a ton of in-zone contact, having an 87 percent rate to pair with a 76 percent overall mark. The chase rate of 17 percent shows his very strong plate discipline.

Jake Gelof, 3B, LAD, 22

Gelof collected two hits on Thursday, including a 409 foot home run that left the bat at 103 mph. Additionally he added a single with a 111 mph exit velocity on a line drive smoked to left field. Gelof has gotten off to a strong start to the AFL though it has been a small sample. 

After Thursday's game, his OPS is up to 2.114, and Gelof has been on base in five of his seven trips to the plate. Someone who needed a strong AFL, Gelof has made an early impression, making contact, drawing walks, and mashing baseballs.

Edwin Arroyo, SS, CIN, 21

Arroyo missed the entire 2024 regular season due to a torn left labrum. Now healthy, the team sent him to Arizona to get back up to speed on game action. No player stands a chance to improve their stock more in the AFL than Arroyo, just given he had not played in over a year prior to going to the desert. 

Collecting two hits in Thursday’s action while having three hard-hit balls. He smacked a double at 100 mph with a 12-degree launch angle on a shot up the middle. While it has been a small sample, Arroyo has shown strong contact skills and has consistently hit the ball hard. 

Arroyo is still one of the top prospects in the Reds system and is here to prove it, coming off a pretty serious injury.

Thomas Saggese, 2B, STL, 22

With a lineup full of MLB hitters, Glendale should never lose. The two-three-four hole of the Desert Dogs’ lineup on Thursday featured Saggese, Matt McLain, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, all of whom made their MLB debuts. 

Sagesse collected two hits on Thursday, a single and a double, but the double is especially of note given that it was smoked at 111 mph. In 2024, his hardest-hit ball registered at 108.2 mph. Seeing a near three mph jump in your hardest hit ball is notable, or maybe head-scratching for some. The balls have definitely been flying in Arizona.

Sagesse should be in the Cardinals Opening Day lineup in 2025 and have the chance to be an everyday regular.