Arizona Fall League Recap: Andrew Painter Thoughts and Outlook

Today’s AFL Recap will be a feature on Andrew Painter, who made his third AFL start on Thursday. We will take a deep dive into the arsenal, what it looks like now, how are the locations, and what should we expect in 2025 and beyond.

But first, let’s at least talk about the top performers from Thursday.

Arizona Fall League Top Performers: 10/25/24

• Andrew Painter: 3 IP/1 H/0 ER/3 K/0 BB

• Connor Phillips: 4 IP/4 H/0 ER/1 BB/5 K

• Otto Kemp: 2/4 2 HR/5 RBI (EVs of: 110, 108.2, 104)

• Gino Groover: 2/5

• Kristian Robinson: 2/4 (EVs of 110.2, 107, 102.4)

• Grant Kipp: 3 IP/1 H/0 ER/1 BB/5 K

• Jonathon Long: 1/3 1 HR

• Peyton Williams: 1/4 1 HR

• Alex Santos II: 3.1 IP/3 H/1 ER/1 BB/4 K/11 Whiffs

• Andrew Pintar: 3/5

• Ethan Salas: 3/5

• Leo De Vries: 2/2 2 2B/1 BB

• Brandon White: 4 IP/1 H/0 ER/3 BB/4 K

Andrew Painter AFL Performance and Outlook

After going down with injury in Spring Training of 2023, Painter went the rest and recovery route. Unfortunately that ended in him having Tommy John Surgery on July 25, 2023.

After being selected in the first round of the 2021 MLB Draft, Painter tossed 103.2 innings in 2022, moving from Single-A to Double-A while posting a 1.56 ERA with 155 strikeouts and 25 walks. He looked like the best pitching prospect in baseball, and it was not close. Painter was on the verge of making his MLB debut out of Spring Training in 2023 and would have been 19 when he debuted.

Pre-TJ Fastball

Painter’s fastball averaged near 97 mph in 2022, reaching 101 with incredible IVB (induced vertical break), creating a rising effect at the top of the zone, especially given the high spin rates. It produced a ton of swing-and-miss and set up the rest of the arsenal well.

Arizona Fall League Fastball

So far in the Arizona Fall League, he has sat 97 mph and touched 100 mph. The velocity is fully back, and Painter saw his fastball have up to 19 inches of IVB on Friday but averaged closer to 16.2 inches with around five inches of horizontal movement. The VAA of -5.5 is pretty solid, given his 6’4” release height. The fastball location has gotten better in each of his starts with the start on Thursday easily being his best.

The velocity being back from his first start is highly important. The command will only get better with the pitch, but it already looks like the plus offering that it was pre-surgery.

Video Courtesy of DD Member Bryce Kucko

Pre-TJ Slider

The slider drops in the mid-to-low 80s, averaging 10-13 inches of sweeping action with a great feel for spin. Painter hides it well and creates deception with late breaking action. It has a good feel for late depth and the horizontal movement comes late as well.

Arizona Fall League Slider

Painter threw seven sliders on Thursday which was the same number he threw in his previous start. The pitch has sat around 88 mph in each of the last two outings and has touched 90 mph. While averaging 7.5 inches of horizontal, it has registered as high as 10 inches and has also shown good depth. Locations were much better in his most recent start, burying it down and away from righties. This pitch is more of the cutter/slider he debuted in Spring Training of 2023 versus the longer horizontal one that he previously threw.

Video Courtesy of DD Member Bryce Kucko

Pre-TJ Changeup and Curveball

Painter also mixes in a changeup, which made major strides in 2022, sitting in the high-80s. The curve is the lesser of the two breakers, but you can still argue it is a plus pitch in the upper-70s. It has a two-plane break but less depth than the typical curveball.

Arizona Fall League Changeup and Curve

The curveball has continued to look strong sitting 80-81 mph. It has shown depth and sweeping action, averaging negative three inches of IVB and nine inches of sweeping action. It has registered as low as negative six inches of IVB with up to 13 inches of sweep.

Painter has thrown one changeup so far, but not in his most recent start. It was a firm 91 mph pitch with carry and 16 inches of fading action.

Video Courtesy of DD Member Bryce Kucko

Andrew Painter Performance and 2025 Outlook

Painter is up to seven innings of work in the AFL and is slated to reach a 20 innings limit there. He has allowed three earned runs and struck out seven batters but has gotten better each start. I will see him live next Wednesday and report back with more details.

As far as 2025 goes, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski doesn't have a timeline on when Painter will be on the major league roster in 2025. He said:

Painter could be on the Opening Day roster, and I would not be shocked. It would also not surprise me if he starts in Triple-A and gets a month there before his debut. One thing is certain. The Phillies are a team with playoff aspirations that will want Andrew Painter healthy in the postseason.

120 innings feels like a real possibility for Painter in 2025. Let’s break that up over a full season's workload of 30 starts, and you have around four innings per outing. Given that we have seen Painter threw three innings in the Fall League already, so you would expect out of the gate in 2025..Maybe it's a 75-pitch limit? Regardless, I think you get results for Painter. The strides he has made in three AFL starts have been impressive, and with a full offseason and Spring Training of prep, I think we will see him get back to the Painter we saw in 2022, one of the best pitchers in baseball.