Arizona Fall League Actionable Takeaways

The AFL is all but wrapped up at this point. The championship game between the Salt River Rafters and the Surprise Saguaros takes place tonight(Saturday). Sadly, baseball is nearly done until 2025.

After spending ample time in Arizona, Beck and I saw a lot of games and had multiple looks at each player. Stats don’t matter all that much for the AFL. The hitting environment is insane; balls travel further than anywhere, and pitches don’t move like arms are used to.

So, what are the takeaways of things that matter? Beck and I break that down. You can also find the statistical leaders below.

AFL Stat Leaders

HR: Josue Briceño: 10

2B: Colt Emerson: 9

3B: Denzel Clarke: 3

RBI: Josue Briceño: 27

SB: Caleb Durbin: 29

AVG: Josue Briceño: .433

OBP: Carter Jensen: .582

SLG: Josue Briceño: .867

ERA: Samy Natera Jr.: 0.75

IP: Josh Stephan: 20

K: Connor Phillips: 26

Arizona Fall League Actionable Info

Chris’s Takeaways:

Andrew Painter is the Top Pitching Prospect in Baseball

Painter was utterly dominant all AFL, as expected. The stuff is fully back, and his command will come with time. Painter has the opportunity to make a Paul Skenes Esq rise in 2025, and I would not be shocked at all. 

For a full breakdown of Painter and the start I saw, check out the article below

Otto Kemp is Ready for Big League Role

Kemp is a player I had my eye on heading into the AFL, but his performance and my live looks at him were impressive. Playing four positions in the field in the AFL after playing everywhere except shortstop and centerfield during the regular season shows Kemp’s versatility. 

Kemp hit six AFL home runs and posted an impressive .289/.460/.733 slash line. The exit velocity data was strong as Kemp topped at 116 mph and had a 95 mph average exit velocity on 32 batted balls.

An undrafted free agent out of Point Loma Nazarene, Kemp is an unlikely candidate to be knocking on the door of an MLB debut. But that is precisely what Kemp did in 2024, as he dominated the AFL and put up a .285/.392/.489 slash with 16 home runs, 24 doubles, and nine triples during the regular season. Kemp swiped 20 bases as he climbed from Single-A to Triple-A by season’s end.

Denzel Clarke could be on the Lawrence Butler trajectory

Clarke’s frame and athleticism stand out from the first moment you see him play. His setup pre-swing is interesting as Clarke gets in almost a squat position and arches hit back. He makes it work, even if it looks a bit uncomfortable. Contact has been a bit of a question mark for Clarke’s entire career, much like Butler, but there have been strides made. 

After putting up much-improved contact rates and numbers in the second half of the regular season, Clarke went to Arizona and proceeded to hit .382/.495/.556. He plays an incredible centerfield defense, having incredible jumps and range. He tracks down balls most would not get to. He should be on the cusp of an MLB debut in a crowded Athletics outfield situation soon.

Jake Miller is a Dude

If you look at the surface, Miller’s 9.18 ERA across 16.2 innings looks bad. I think this is where you throw numbers out the window. Miller was highly impressive in my live look as well as Beck’s the week after. 

I saw MIller when his fastball sat 90-93 mph, but he averaged near 93 and touched 96 during his time in Arizona. His changeup plays extremely well off the fastball, sitting around 85 mph and having an impressive shape with late fading action. He also mixed a slider and sweeper in.

Miller ended the fall with 24 strikeouts to just three walks. He looks like a future starting pitcher, especially if the fastball(s) continue to progress.

Thayron Liranzo Can Play Catcher Long-Term

Liranzo put on quite an impressive defensive showing when I saw him catch. He has quick instincts behind the plate and a cannon of an arm. He registered a 1.8 second pop-time, which was extremely impressive. He transitions well from his glove to his hand and has a quick release. Liranzo looks like a long-term power-hitting catcher to me.

We know what the bat is capable of. Despite only hitting two home runs in the AFL, Liranzo has massive power, having a 90th percentile exit velocity in AFL of 110, which followed a mark north of 108 mph in the regular season. He makes enough contact to get to the power regularly. I am very excited about Liranzo, especially after seeing him catch in the AFL.

Beck’s Takeaways:

Samy Natera is a Name to Know

In terms of lefties worth paying attention to in this year’s crop, I think it’s limited to Jake Miller and Samy Natera. I prefer the former – his stuff was just a little louder – but Natera was nails for the duration of his AFL campaign. His fastball sat 91-93 mph with ride and arm-side run, his slider (maybe a curveball) was effective against lefties and worked down-and-in against righties, and his changeup was a great platoon neutralizer. He’s 25, but I care more about stuff and pitchability than age-to-level when it comes to arms. He’ll have to work on limiting free passes and prove some health, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get upper-level minors work this year with MLB time to come in 2026.

Alejandro Osuna Plays Much Bigger Than His Measurables

Osuna had an underrated season. I’m trying not to buy into the idea that he was entirely cast away in a Moneyball trope as a result of his size, but a .306/.379/.523 line with nine home runs and seven stolen bases in 57 Double-A games would have garnered more attention if he were 6-foot-2. He was one of the most enjoyable players to spectate across the 16 games I attended and should be a big leaguer in relatively short order. How the Rangers figure out their outfield situation is beyond me, as it’s clear left and right belong to Wyatt Langford and Adolis Garcia, respectively, and while Osuna has experience in center, he’s probably a better fit in right. I think Osuna should be in the top-150 conversation, and I’ll give him some consideration for top-100.

Tommy Troy Deserves a Mulligan

The more I watched him, the more I bought into the idea that he was too hurt for the duration of 2024 to take his regular season numbers, both surface and underlying, at face value. He had foot surgery in the offseason and a hamstring strain that held him out for two months to begin the year, both injuries that have the potential to take a lot of confidence out of your bottom half. I’ve moved off the idea of him as a star, but he’s certainly a big leaguer and a regular at that. His AFL looked more like what I would expect, and his movements looked like he was finally healthy.

Tre’ Morgan is Impressive in all Facets of the Game

I don’t think I saw a more fundamentally sound player in the 16 games I attended. He was an excellent baserunner, a tenacious defender in left field (perhaps to his detriment – he’s a little rough around the edges but doesn’t lack enthusiasm or effort), and always a competitive at-bat. He isn’t the toolsiest guy on the field (he certainly doesn’t lack athleticism, either), but he makes it work with a deep understanding of the game and a high floor across the board. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rays deploy him in 2025 – the outfield reps in the AFL signal to me that they continue to value defensive flexibility and are probably penciling Xavier Isaac in at first base.

Nick Kurtz is as Advertised and Should be a Top-5 FYPD Pick

He’s not a sprinter. He’s not much of a thrower or defender, either. He can hit with the best of them, though. In the four games I saw him, I think he made a combined total of five outs and carried a batting average over .500. The top of this class is a little wide open after Roki Sasaki and Travis Bazzana, and I think it’s reasonable to go with any of Kurtz, Wetherholt, or Moore with the third through fifth picks. Kurtz is a better version of what we thought Tyler Locklear could be.