2025 Atlanta Braves Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

With dynasty season ramping up, I figured it was time to talk about some sleepers, breakouts, and busts for each team. You can find my rankings and reports to see how I value players for your dynasty leagues, but I also feel like it’s helpful to truly identify whether I believe a player can be a breakout or not. Here is where I call my shots on players I think require a call to action in dynasty, whether it be to buy or sell that player.

While you are here, be sure to check out the Atlanta Braves’ top prospect list. It is nearly 10k words covering everything you need to know about the Atlanta Braves farm system and it now has reports on their top international signees from January 2025. The Atlanta Braves Sleeper, Breakout, and Bust article is just below, and it is a free read for everyone! Enjoy!

Atlanta Braves Dynasty Sleepers, Breakouts, Busts

MLB Sleeper: Sean Murphy, C, 30, 6’3”/228

It is hard to find a true sleeper on this roster given how loaded the lineup is. So, this year’s pick is going to be a player that people have just quit, and that is Sean Murphy. In his first season in Atlanta, Murphy was good, hitting 21 home runs in 108 games and slashing .251/.365/.478. In 2024, injuries struck, and everything collapsed. Murphy hit under the Mendoza line and had ten home runs in 72 games.

Murphy strained his left oblique on Opening Day and missed two months. Murphy was then hit on the elbow on June 4, and while he did not miss time, it seemed to impact his performance.

The underlying data changes are stark. Murphy’s average exit velocity dropped from 91.5 mph in 2023 to 88 mph in 2024. The barrel rate was nearly halved, falling from 16.1 percent to 9.6 percent. The sweet spot rate went from 38 percent to 25 percent. Everything fell off pretty hard.

Murphy is healthy and should be the Braves’ primary catcher in 2025 even with Drake Baldwin looming. After all, the Braves did extend him through 2029 and have significant money tied up in him.

Murphy will play and bounce back in a big way. The upper-end power was still there in 2024 as Murphy had a 106.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, and he pulled 51 percent of his fly balls. The exit velocities on those balls were 96 mph. The biggest thing will be staying healthy.

MLB Breakout: Grant Holmes, RHP, 29, 6’0”/226

Holmes has quite the story and background. After being selected in the first round of the 2014 MLB Draft by the Dodgers, Holmes spent his entire career as a Minor League journeyman. At least, until 2024. Ten years after being drafted and toiling through the minors, Holmes got the chance to make his MLB debut in Atlanta and wound up pitching 68 innings with the MLB squad. His 3.56 ERA was rather impressive, and Holmes put up a 19.5 percent strikeout minus walk rate.

The Braves are quite confident in Holmes starting games for them, to the point where they are content no longer pursuing starting pitching this offseason. Holmes’s fastball sits around 95 mph and sets up the rest of his arsenal well.

The secondaries are where Holmes makes his money. The Slider and curveball both produced whiff rates north of 41 percent against MLB hitters, an impressive mark. The slider sits 86-87 mph with a strong gyro shape. The 84 mph curveball mimics the slider before falling off the table.

Given the advanced strike-throwing ability, Holmes has a good chance to stick in the Braves rotation and throw 120 innings. Jordan Rosenblum’s OOPSY projection, which puts Stuff+ in, projects him for a 3.88 ERA in 2025, and there is a chance he could strike out 25 percent of hitters.

MLB Bust: Ozzie Albies, 2B, 28, 5’8”/165

This is an incredibly tough call to make. I also don’t think Albies will be a complete bust, just more relative to his ADP and expectations. His 2024 season was disastrous, much like the entire lineup. Albies hit ten home runs in 435 trips to the plate, and slashed just .251/.303/.404. He also missed time with a fractured left wrist.

There is significant name value with Albies, and rightfully so. He has put together some great seasons, including 2023 when he hit 33 home runs and slashed .280/.336/.513. There is an argument that Albies was a bit lucky that season, as he hit .318 against breaking balls with a .251 xBA. He also mashed fastballs and had 22 home runs against them.

Albies will never light up his Baseball Savant page, and that is okay. He has lived mainly on lower exit velocities but has perfected pulling the ball to the foul poles for home runs. The batted ball profile shifted slightly in 2024, and Albies hit more pop-ups and ground balls. His barrel rate dropped two percentage points in the process.

The lower average exit velocity was previously mentioned, but Albies 90th percentile was 101 mph in 2024, an incredibly low mark for an MLB veteran. Yes, he pulled 46 percent of his fly balls but had just a 93 mph average exit velocity on that demographic of batted balls.

The positive in the profile is that there has been a three-year trend of lower chase rates. Albies cut that number from 43 percent in 2022 down to 35 percent in 2023 to 33.5 percent in 2024. The contact skills are solid as well.

Albies will not be a bust, so take that term lightly. It just might be a 20-23 home run profile with fewer stolen bases than you expect, and it could come with a .250 batting average. All that is fine, but I don’t see it as a top 55 player, which is where Albies is being drafted. It is quite hard to pinpoint a bust in this lineup relative to ADP or perceived value.

Atlanta Braves Prospect Sleeper: Drue Hackenberg, RHP, 22, 6’2”/220, AAA

Hackenberg’s progression this year was something to watch. After being selected in the second round of the 2023 draft as a draft-eligible sophomore, some questioned Atlanta, especially given his numbers at Virginia Tech. But the Braves knew better, and Hackenberg got an over-slot deal for a reason.

Hackenberg hits his spots as well as any pitching prospect in the minors. When I saw him early in the year, his fastball was in the 90-93 range, but by season's end, he was averaging 94 and touching 96. Hackenberg works comfortably on both sides of the plate, painting the corners. The Braves have differentiated the fastball into a four-seam and a sinker, with the four-seam up and the sinker down.

He throws a low-80s slurvy curveball to both left-handed and right-handed batters. It has a nice two-plane break, averaging over ten inches of arm-side movement and negative six inches of horizontal movement.

Hackenberg rounds out the arsenal with an upper 80s cutter with short horizontal movement. His 86-88 mph changeup plays very well off his fastball, especially with the added velocity separation late in the year.

Hackenberg ended the year with 129 innings pitched, showing nice durability and good results, shown by a 3.07 ERA and a 3.21 FIP. He keeps the ball on the ground, posting a 54 percent ground ball rate, and induced a ton of weak contact. Hackenberg allowed just two home runs while facing 547 batters while also striking out 144. It is not a flashy profile, but it feels like one the Braves will develop extremely well.

Atlanta Braves Prospect Breakout: John Gil, SS, 18, 6’1”/175, A

Gil has been pretty impressive every time I have seen him, from Spring Training up to the end of the year with Augusta. A toolsy athlete, Gil moves extremely well and is easily a plus runner. Beginning the year as a 17-year-old, Gil performed well at the complex, hitting three home runs and swiping 26 bases in 51 games. He posted a slash of .286/.403/.389 with strong contact skills.

The numbers in SIngle-A were uninspiring, but again, we are talking about a young player in his first taste of full-season ball. In my looks, Gil adjusted well in the box and controls the barrel well. He can get to pitches in all quadrants of the zone, which is encouraging.

His exit velocities have been pretty strong for his age, with a 90th percentile around 102 mph. Gil pairs that with respectable contact skills and plate discipline for his age.

Speed is Gil's biggest strength at the moment. He clocks plus times and steals bases with ease. This year, he was successful on 40 of 48 attempts. Gil is an intriguing athlete, and if he continues to develop more power, he could be a well-rounded player.